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All Journal Jurnal Matematika: MANTIK
Muhamad Budiman Johra
Universitas Padjajaran, Bandung
Mathematics

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Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen dengan Metode Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Deltha Airuzsh Lubis; Muhamad Budiman Johra; Gumgum Darmawan
Jurnal Matematika MANTIK Vol. 3 No. 2 (2017): Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1050.728 KB) | DOI: 10.15642/mantik.2017.3.2.74-82

Abstract

Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the indicators used to measure the inflation and deflation of a group of goods and services in general. Forecasting CPI to be important as early detection in facing price hikes. This study uses the SSA and SARIMA. SARIMA a parametric model that requires various assumptions while SSA is a nonparametric technique that is free from a variety of assumptions, but both methods require seasonal patterns in the data. Based on the research results, methods of SSA with length window(L) of 24 and a grouping of 4 (1 group of seasonal and 3 groups of trends) and SARIMA models of order (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 is the most accurate and reliable models in forecasting CPI to the value Padang Sidempuan City. Forecasting CPI Padang Sidempuan City for the next 5 months with SSA method and SARIMA (0,1,1), (0,1,1) 6 shows the pattern of a trend is likely to increase but forecasting the 5th month with SSA method showed a surge in the value of CPI high or high inflation will occur.
Penerapan Non-Linier Support Vector Machine pada Penggunaan Alat Kontrasepsi di Provinsi Maluku Utara Muhamad Budiman Johra
Jurnal Matematika MANTIK Vol. 4 No. 2 (2018): Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (263.199 KB) | DOI: 10.15642/mantik.2018.4.2.137-142

Abstract

The objective of BKKBN is to reduce the rate of population growth because the high population growth rate causes a high population quantity as well. According to the Departemen Kesehatan RI (2013), married women aged 15-49 years who are not use contraseption mostly in eastern Indonesia, one of them is Provinsi Maluku Utara. According to BKKBN Provinsi Maluku Utara, the birth rate increased from 57.4 to 57.9. This happens because many KB participants are drop out, contraceptive failure and side effects, the need for family planning is served 9.1 in 2007 to 8.5 in 2012 with a target of 5 in 2014. Therefore, it important to know determinant factors that affect women to use contraceptives. There are several methods in the classification, one of which is the Support Vector Machine (SVM). SVM has advantages over other classification methods because the Support Vector Machine not only minimizes errors in the trainset, but also has a high generalization capability. This is reflected in maximal margin selection. This study shows the Support Vector Machine can describe the decision of women to use contraception or not. The best kernel in this study is a radial base kernel with cost 1 and gamma 0.14286.
Co-Authors Deltha Airuzsh Lubis Gumgum Darmawan