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Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois
Brawijaya University
Education

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Numerical Simulation of Cholera Epidemic Model with Quarantine Trisilowati Trisilowati; Ari Andari; Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois; Mohamad Hasyim Muzaqi
Telematika Vol 14, No 1: February (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Amikom Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35671/telematika.v14i1.1143

Abstract

Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease that spread quickly in an unsanitary environment, and one of its control measures is employing quarantine. Therefore, this research aims to construct a model for the spread of SIRQB-type (susceptibles, infective, recovered, quarantine, bacteria) infectious diseases through a nonlinear differential equation approach. Furthermore, the equilibrium points condition and their stability were investigated using the standard dynamical analysis method. The results show two points of equilibrium: the disease-free, which always exists and is unstable, and the endemic, which is stable and exists under certain conditions. Also, the simulation carried out support the analysis results, and it shows that the rate of quarantine affects the spread of the infected subpopulation.
Local Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic with Quarantine and Isolation using Normalized Index Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois; Trisilowati Trisilowati; Ummu Habibah
Telematika Vol 14, No 1: February (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Amikom Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35671/telematika.v14i1.1191

Abstract

This study discusses the sensitivity analysis of parameters, namely the COVID-19 model, by dividing the population into seven subpopulations: susceptible, exposed, symptomatic infection, asymptomatic infection, quarantine, isolation, and recovered. The solution to the ordinary differential equation for the COVID-19 model using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta numerical method explains that COVID-19 is endemic, as evidenced by the basic reproduction number (R0) of 7.5. It means 1 individual can infect 7 to 8 individuals. Then  is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Based on the value of R0, a parameter sensitivity analysis is implemented to specify the most influential parameters in the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. This can provide input on the selection of appropriate control measures to solve the epidemic from COVID-19. The results of the sensitivity analysis are the parameters that have the most influence on the model.
Co-Authors Ari Andari Mohamad Hasyim Muzaqi Trisilowati Trisilowati Trisilowati, Trisilowati Ummu Habibah