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All Journal IJOG : Indonesian Journal on Geoscience Journal of the Indonesian Tropical Animal Agriculture Jurnal Ilmu Produksi dan Teknologi Hasil Peternakan Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) SYAMIL: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam (Journal of Islamic Education) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Ma'alim: Jurnal Pendidikan Islam SYAMIL: JURNAL PENDIDIKAN AGAMA ISLAM (JOURNAL OF ISLAMIC EDUCATION) Jurnal El-Thawalib Jurnal Spasial: Penelitian, Terapan Ilmu Geografi dan Pendidikan Geografi Jurnal El-Thawalib
M. Imron
Cipelang Livestock Embryo center, PO Box 485 Bogor 16004
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Journal : BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan

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ARIMA MODEL OF OUTLIER DETECTION FOR FORECASTING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Imron, M.; Utami, Wika Dianita; Khaulasari, Hani; Armunanto, Firman
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 4 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (427.349 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1259-1270

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a indicator used by Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) which describes the average change in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services in a certain period. The case on Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase then describe inflation occurs and conversely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City increase is not fixed. This study is to forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that the results can be used as one of the considerations in carrying out economic development in the future. Research focused on the data of Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City from January 2014 to April 2022. Methodology implemented in this study is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Result show that ARIMA without an outlier was the best model for predicting Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City for the next 8 months. This model shows the value of MAPE is . The value of forecasting results in each month has decreased and increased not so significantly where in May 2022 the forecasting value was 108,391 then in June 2022 the forecasting value became 108,411 and so on until December 2022 the forecasting results using ARIMA model of 107,845.
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) Imron, M.; Khaulasari, Hani; SNM, Diva Ayu; Inayah, Jauharotul; S, Eka Eliyana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1533-1542

Abstract

Magelang City has experienced a significant decline in the rice production sector, triggering the need for forecasting research as the next crucial step. This research aims to forecast rice production in Magelang city. By applying Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA methods, the most suitable forecasting model is identified. Data on rice production was obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Magelang city. The results revealed that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with MSE of 479,259 was the best choice. This model is expressed as . Using this model, rice production was forecast from July to December 2023, the forecasting results showed that rice paddy production is expected to fluctuate in the coming months. For July 2023, production is projected to be around 65,1762 units, followed by 51,4779 units in August, 58,2432 units in September, and so on.
Co-Authors A. B. L. Ishak, A. B. L. Algifari, Muhammad Faiz Aris Fanani Armunanto, Firman B. Toha C. SUMANTRI D. H. Amijaya E. Andreas F. Saputra, F. Hamam Burhanuddin Hani Khaulasari I. Arifiantini Inayah, Jauharotul Jodiansyah, S. Nur Aulia, Shofinatul Wahdah Putroue Keumala Intan S, Eka Eliyana S. Winardi SNM, Diva Ayu Wika Dianita Utami