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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan
Putu Simpen Arini
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara (Wisman) Ke Bali Tahun 2019: Metode ARIMA Rukini Rukini; Putu Simpen Arini; Esthisatari Nawangsih
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2015: Vol. 8, No. 2, Agustus 2015 (pp. 113-216)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (721.502 KB) | DOI: 10.24843/JEKT.2015.v08.i02.p04

Abstract

IndonesiaTourism has been growing significantly over the past few years. In 2013, income from tourism reached 10,054 millions dollars, occupied the third place of indonesia export commodities. The ministry of tourism and creatice economy has targeted 20 millions arrivals and 240 trillion rupiahs from international tourist arrivals in 2019. As Bali has been contributing for more than 40 percent of international tourist arrivals in Indonenesia, it is expected to have around 8 millions international arrivals in 2019. Using ARIMA method, it is predicted that the number of international tourist arrivals in Bali will be 5,07 millions in 2019, far below the target. This result suggests that government should give more effort to develop tourism in the upcoming years to fulfil the target.
Pengaruh Hari Raya Galungan Pada Seasonal Adjustment IHK dan Penentuan Komoditas Utama Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Provinsi Bali: Analisis ARIMA Putu Simpen Arini; I Komang Gde Bendesa
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2012: Vol. 5, No. 2, Agustus 2012 (pp. 79-150)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (421.665 KB)

Abstract

Inflation is one of macroeconomic indicators that show a rise of prices in the general level of goods and services over a period of time. The research conducted by Bank Indonesia in 2003 and 2004 show that the largest component that determine the inflation was people’s expectation. One of the required information to controling inflation expectation is the prediction of future inflation and the main commodity that make a big contribution to inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data use to prediction of future inflation rate. Forecasting the time series data of CPI must be preceded with seasonal adjustment to reduce a seasonal component in time series data. Seasonal component which is tested in this study is Galungan (one of Balinese’s big ceremony). This is based on fact that the majority of Balinese are Hindust. Data which used in this research are Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rate, commodity price index, producer prices, and consumer prices. The method which used to seasonal adjusted is X-12 ARIMA and the method which used to forecast is SARIMA. Modus method and the principal component analysis are use to determine the main commodity which make an influence to Bali’s inflation. The results of this research are: (1) Galungan has unsignificant result as seasonal component to effect the Bali’s CPI, (2) The forecast for Bali’s inflation rate in 2012 is 6,23 percent, and (3) The main commodity that has a big contribution to influence the Bali’s inflation rate is rice.  
Co-Authors Esthisatari Nawangsih I Komang Gde Bendesa Rukini Rukini