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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan
Esthisatari Nawangsih
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara (Wisman) Ke Bali Tahun 2019: Metode ARIMA Rukini Rukini; Putu Simpen Arini; Esthisatari Nawangsih
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2015: Vol. 8, No. 2, Agustus 2015 (pp. 113-216)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (721.502 KB) | DOI: 10.24843/JEKT.2015.v08.i02.p04

Abstract

IndonesiaTourism has been growing significantly over the past few years. In 2013, income from tourism reached 10,054 millions dollars, occupied the third place of indonesia export commodities. The ministry of tourism and creatice economy has targeted 20 millions arrivals and 240 trillion rupiahs from international tourist arrivals in 2019. As Bali has been contributing for more than 40 percent of international tourist arrivals in Indonenesia, it is expected to have around 8 millions international arrivals in 2019. Using ARIMA method, it is predicted that the number of international tourist arrivals in Bali will be 5,07 millions in 2019, far below the target. This result suggests that government should give more effort to develop tourism in the upcoming years to fulfil the target.
Perbandingan Ketepatan Model Logit Dan Probit Dalam Memprediksi Kecenderungan Tingkat Hunian Kamar Usaha Akomodasi Di Bali 2010 Esthisatari Nawangsih; I K.G. Bendesa
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2013: Vol. 6, No. 1, Februari 2013 (pp. 1-70)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (203.918 KB)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to describe how accomodation in Bali looks like and what factors that statistically significant affect accomodation’s room occupancy rate which is the indicator of accomodation productivity with logit and probit equations. Those models then compared to know which one is more precise. The result of this research involving 1.785 accomodations in Bali shows that there is a significant difference among accomodations viewed in different angles, like accomodation type, chain status, and location. From ten variables hipothyzed affecting accomodation’s room occupancy rate, six of themare statistically significant. Those variables are number of workers, number of beds, chain status, association membership, location, and region. Logit and probit models each has 73,39% and 72,94% accuracy. Because of its higher accuracy, logit model is more precise to predict the tendency of accomodation room occupancy rate.  
Co-Authors I Komang Gde Bendesa Putu Simpen Arini Rukini Rukini