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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Journal of Innovation and Applied Technology
Waego Hadi Nugroho
Prodi Statistika Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Brawijaya
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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Journal : CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi

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Hybrid Model GSTAR-SUR-NN For Precipitation Data Sulistyono, Agus Dwi; Nugroho, Waego Hadi; Fitriani, Rahma; Iriani, Atiek
CAUCHY Vol 4, No 2 (2016): CAUCHY
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (701.925 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v4i2.3490

Abstract

Spatio-temporal model that have been developed such as Space-Time Autoregressive (STAR) model, Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR), GSTAR-OLS and GSTAR-SUR. Besides spatio-temporal phenomena, in daily life, we often find nonlinear phenomena, uncommon patterns and unidentified characteristics of the data. One of current developed nonlinear model is a neural network. This study is conducted to form a hybrid model GSTAR-SUR-NN to develop spatio-temporal model that has better prediction. This research is conducted on ten-daily rainfall data at 2005 - 2015 for Blimbing, Singosari, Karangploso, Dau, and Wagir region. Based on the results of this research, indicated that the accuracy of GSTAR ((1), 1,2,3,12,36)-SUR model used cross-covariance weight has relatively similar to GSTAR ((1), 1,2,3 , 12.36)-SUR-NN (25-14-5) for  Blimbing and Singosari region with 5% error level. While Karangploso, Dau, and Wagir, GSTAR ((1), 1,2,3,12,36)-SUR-NN (25-14-5) model has better accuracy in predicting the precipitation at three locations with the value of R2prediction for each location is 0.992, 0.580, and 0.474.
Co-Authors Agus Dwi Sulistyono, Agus Dwi Agus Suharyanto Ani Budi Astuti Atiek Iriani, Atiek Cahya, Utik Tri Wulan Elfrida Ratnawati Eni Sumarminingsih Kalangi, Olyvia Maria Rahma Fitriani Rotchildi, Gusti Ayu Putu Rawi Sa'diyah, Nur Kamilah Wani Hadi Utomo