<![CDATA[Abstrak. Perubahan iklim global di masa depan diperkirakan akan menyebabkan kenaikan suhu dan perubahan pola curah hujan di sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia, tidak terkecuali pada wilayah Adolina, Marihat, dan Bah Birong Ulu, Sumatera Utara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim di masa depan terhadap perubahan kesesuaian lahan untuk kelapa sawit dan kemampuan adaptasi varietas kelapa sawit Pusat Penelitian Kelapa Sawit (PPKS) serta merekomendasikan upaya-upaya yang menjadi bagian dari proses adaptasi dan mitigasi di perkebunan kelapa sawit. Obyek studi adalah delapan varietas kelapa sawit produksi PPKS yaitu Avros, Dumpy, LaMe, Langkat, PPKS 540, PPKS 718, Simalungun, dan Yangambi. Data durasi fase perkembangan buah dan karakteristik morfologi delapan varietas tersebut diperoleh dari penelitian sebelumnya. Data produksi bulanan bersumber dari hasil pengamatan selama 2016-2018 pada kelapa sawit berumur 15 tahun di Adolina (10 m dpl), Marihat (369 m dpl), dan Bah Birong Ulu (900 m dpl). Data iklim antara tahun 1989-2018 di ketiga lokasi tersebut digunakan sebagai baseline, sedangkan data skenario perubahan iklim bersumber dari kajian literatur. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa varietas yang memiliki durasi fase perkembangan tandan lebih cepat (Dumpy, Avros, dan PPKS 540) diprediksi lebih mudah beradaptasi dengan kenaikan suhu udara. Varietas Dumpy diprediksi lebih sesuai ditanam di wilayah yang lebih basah, sebaliknya Lame, Langkat, PPKS 540, dan Simalungun diprediksi adaptif pada wilayah yang lebih kering. Sebagai langkah adaptasi dan mitigasi, diperlukan varietas baru yang memiliki karakter toleran terhadap suhu tinggi dan kekeringan, toleran hama/penyakit, dan high nutrient use efficiency. Selain itu, diperlukan juga penyesuaian kultur teknis yang utamanya terkait dengan konservasi tanah dan air serta antisipasi outbreak serangan hama/penyakit.Abstract. In the future, global climate change is predicted to cause an increase in air temperature and change in rainfall pattern in most Indonesian regions. This study was aimed to analyse the impacts of global climate change on alteration of land suitability for oil palm and adaptability of Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute (IOPRI) oil palm varieties, as well as to recommend efforts for adaptation and mitigation in oil palm plantation. Objects of the study were eight oil palm varieties released by IOPRI, those were Avros, Dumpy, LaMe, Langkat, PPKS 540, PPKS 718, Simalungun, and Yangambi. Data of fruit development phases and morphological characters for the eight varieties were obtained from the previous study. Data of monthly yield were observed in 2016-2018 for 15 years old oil palm planted in Adolina (10 m asl), Marihat (369 m asl), and Bah Birung Ulu (900 m asl). Climate data in the period of 1989-2018 in each location were employed as a baseline, while scenario data of global climate change were from literature review. The results showed that varieties with shorter duration of fruit development phases (Dumpy, Avros, and PPKS 540) were predicted to be easier to adapt with an increase in air temperature. Variety of Dumpy was predicted to be more suitable in the area with higher rainfall, on the other hand, varieties of Lame, Langkat, PPKS 540, and Simalungun were predicted to be more suitable for land with low rainfall. As a part of adaptation and mitigation process, it is necessary to assembly a new oil palm variety which has characters of tolerant to high temperature and drought, tolerant to pest and diseases, and high nutrient use efficiency. Furthermore, agronomic practices need to be adjusted mainly in the efforts to conserve soil and water as well as to anticipate the outbreak of pest and diseases.]]>
