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All Journal Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ETIKONOMI Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Mohamad Ikhsan

Faculty Of Economics And Business, Universitas Indonesia

Author-ID : 3634074

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Articles

Calorie Consumption and Indonesia’s Household Expenditure: Is There a Paradox? Rustam Rustam; Mohamad Ikhsan; Djoni Hartono; Sudarno Sumarto
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15310

During 2011-2014, anecdotal evidence suggested a paradox in Indonesia concerning calorie intake that had fallen, despite increased per capita expenditure and household size. This study will rigorously analyze calorie intake by applying several analytical methods, mainly repeated cross-section methods using an instrumental variable. The study used national scale data from the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) in March 2011-2014. This study finds a meaningful relationship between calorie intake and per capita expenditure and household size in Indonesia in the 2011-2014 period. Besides, calorie needs and the "Subsidized Rice for the Poor" or the Raskin program are positively correlated with calorie intake. The research also suggests that the government needs to maintain household food assistance programs, ensure the stability of staple food prices, and apply economies of scale in calculating the poverty line.JEL Classification: C31, C36, D12, D90Rustam., Ikhsan, M., Hartono, D., & Sumarto, S.. (2021). Calorie Consumption and Indonesia’s Household Expenditure: Is There A Paradox?. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10 (1), 1-12. http://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.15310.

Impact of Changes to Subsidised Electricity Tariffs on The Welfare Of Households Andri Yudhi Supriadi; Mohamad Ikhsan; Benedictus Raksaka Mahi; Montty Girianna
ETIKONOMI Vol 18, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business

The subsidized electricity tariff enjoyed by households in Indonesia with an installed capacity of 450 VA and 900 VA has not changed since mid-2003. This subsidy creates an increasing economic burden on the state budget. This study examines the impact of a subsidized electricity tariff increase on subsidized household welfare and the redistribution of subsidy allocation. The analysis divided into two stages: first, estimating household electricity demand for each household group when prices fixed; and second, measuring changes in welfare, inefficiency and the redistribution of subsidy allocations. This empirical study shows that an increase in tariffs causes the welfare of subsidized households to decline. It also demonstrates inefficiency in the allocation of subsidies to the top 20% group with an installed capacity of 450 VA. Besides, subsidized households in the lowest 40% group, which initially only enjoyed 26.26% increased to 34.16% after the tariff increase. On the other hand, the top 20% group, which initially enjoyed the electricity subsidy allocation of 28.74%, decreased to 20.40% after the tariff increase.JEL Classification: D1, D3, D6, I3

Enhancing Resilience to Turbulent Global Financial Markets: An Indonesian Experience Sri Mulyani Indrawati; Ndiame Diop; Mohamad Ikhsan; Febrio Kacaribu
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 66, Number 1, June 2020
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

In the empirical literature, large and abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, typically hit asset markets and generate output losses in the receiving countries. The significant decrease in capital flows to emerging markets in 2018 is a unique opportunity to test this premise. Using Indonesian data, we found that the sharp decline in capital inflows for over two consecutive quarters in 2018 had an adverse impact on the currency, equities, and bond markets, but no discernible output loss was recorded. Real GDP growth remained resilient throughout 2018 and held broadly steady at around 5 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Furthermore, asset markets rebounded quickly, regaining most of the losses incurred by March 2019. We attribute this resilience to Indonesia’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals and responsive fiscal and monetary policies. We argue that to sustain this resilience in the years to come, complementary structural reforms to boost export-oriented FDI would be needed. The 2020 COVID-19 global pandemic has put the emerging economies to the test again, with a possibly more significant impact. We will revisit our analysis in the future in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry Mohamad Ikhsan; I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 67, Number 1, June 2021
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government’s fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia’s fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.

The Productivity and Future Growth Potential of Indonesia Mohamad Ikhsan; Sri Mulyani Indrawati; I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda; Zihaul Abdi; Canyon Keanu Can
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 67, Number 2, December 2021
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

The output per worker of Indonesia has been on a downtrend since 2010, with total factor productivity (TFP) and capital stock largely stagnant if not declining. This paper discusses stylized facts that may explain recent trends in the productivity and growth potential of Indonesia. The decomposition of output per worker reveals the declining contribution of human capital, which is also most negative among peer countries. The growth in labor productivity has been concentrated within sectors, implying room for gains from labor reallocations. A substantial share of employment and credit in Indonesia has shifted to the relatively unproductive service sectors, particularly wholesale and retail trade. In terms of firm dynamics, the contribution of large firms in Indonesia has been lackluster compared to regional peers while the productivity of micro, small and medium enterprises remains stagnant. Considering that human capital and TFP measures of Indonesia are lagging behind middle-income peers, there is wide scope for Indonesia to catch up. However, the potential output of Indonesia also faces new risks from the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect that the short-term effect of the pandemic on capital accumulation and the long-term effect on human capital pose the highest risk while labor inputs appear to be more resilient. Meanwhile, the potential productivity gains from accelerated digital adoption and sectoral reallocations are more uncertain.

Co-Authors Andri Yudhi Supriadi Canyon Keanu Can Djoni Hartono Febrio Kacaribu I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda Mahi, Benedictus Raksaka Montty Girianna Ndiame Diop Rustam Rustam Sri Mulyani Indrawati Sri Mulyani Indrawati Sudarno Sumarto Zihaul Abdi

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