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All Journal JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara Economics and Finance in Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic and Finance in Indonesia
Sugiharso Safuan
Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics Dan Business, Universitas Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences

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Effects of Financial Inclusion and Openness on Banking Stability: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries M. Abdi Shalihin; Sugiharso Safuan
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 67, Number 2, December 2021
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (164.188 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.967

Abstract

This study seeks to contribute to the emerging debate regarding the effects of financial inclusion and openness on banking stability. Panel data from 217 developing and developed countries from 2004 to 2017 showed that financial inclusion did not affect banking stability. However, financial openness significantly affected banking stability in all countries worldwide. Furthermore, the interaction of financial inclusion and openness had a significant positive effect on banking stability in developing and all countries worldwide. This finding indicates that the more funds obtained by banks from the implementation of financial inclusion policy and financial openness policy, the greater the potential for banks to maintain their stability. Therefore, to maintain bank stability, each country needs to synchronize its policies on financial inclusion and financial openness. This finding also contributes to the literature on understanding the essential financial inclusion policies and financial openness to improve bank stability.
On Nonlinear Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of ASEAN-5 Countries Period 2000–2016 Ambar Galih; Sugiharso Safuan
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 63, Number 1, June 2017
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (298.312 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v63i1.565

Abstract

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Recent studies concerning the debatable relationship have evolved it into a hypothesis whether the relation is nonlinear with a threshold or a point where the link switches. This study aims to re-examine the causality between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries period 2000Q1–2016Q4. The results based on Threshold Vector Autoregression model indicate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between the two variables.
Perilaku Tabungan ASEAN 5, Jepang, Cina, Korea, dan Implikasinya terhadap Ketidakseimbangan Global Safuan, Sugiharso; Sari, Heidy Ruswita
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 13, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

The study examines saving behavior in ASEAN 5+3 namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Japan, China, and Korea during 1991-2007 and its implication toward global imbalances. By using fixed effect panel data regression, this research shows that government spending, interest rate and inflation, financial development through private domestic credit and stock market capitalization along with the 1997 Asian crisis significantly affect the saving behavior. As a result, a macroeconomic stability through interest rate and inflation, the reinforcement of financial development and crisis anticipation policy are required to support global re-balancing through global saving redistribution.
Analisis Keseimbangan Eksternal Indonesia: Pendekatan Intertemporal Model of Current Account Nurmalindah, Nurmalindah; Safuan, Sugiharso
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 13, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Current account balance has an important role of measuring the direction and the amount of international loan. This study analyzes Indonesian external balance due to its solvency condition of external debt and sustainability of current account balance during 1970-2007 by intertemporal-model approach of current account. The results of cointegration test and bivariate autoregressive (VAR) indicate that solvency condition holds, but not for the sustainability condition of current account balance. It means that Indonesia has capability to payback its external debt.
Pengaruh Penggabungan Mata Uang di Uni Eropa terhadap International Risk Sharing dan Home Bias Triandhari, Risna; Safuan, Sugiharso
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 12, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Resident of the industrialized countries can lower some of their economic risk they face by diversifying their portfolios including foreign assets. In the world with perfect capital mobility, international risk sharing will reduce saving with constant relative risk aversion. The objective of this study to analyze the impact of the establishment of single currency on the degree of international risk sharing and the home bias among country member of European Union (EU). Using panel data, the increasing output correlation between individual countries and group of eleventh countries indicate the adoption of single currency increase the degree of international risk sharing.
Effects of Financial Inclusion and Openness on Banking Stability: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries Safuan, Sugiharso; Shalihin, M. Abdi
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 67, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study seeks to contribute to the emerging debate regarding the effects of financial inclusion and openness on banking stability. Panel data from 217 developing and developed countries from 2004 to 2017 showed that financial inclusion did not affect banking stability. However, financial openness significantly affected banking stability in all countries worldwide. Furthermore, the interaction of financial inclusion and openness had a significant positive effect on banking stability in developing and all countries worldwide. This finding indicates that the more funds obtained by banks from the implementation of financial inclusion policy and financial openness policy, the greater the potential for banks to maintain their stability. Therefore, to maintain bank stability, each country needs to synchronize its policies on financial inclusion and financial openness. This finding also contributes to the literature on understanding the essential financial inclusion policies and financial openness to improve bank stability.
On Nonlinear Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of ASEAN-5 Countries Period 2000–2016 Galih, Ambar; Safuan, Sugiharso
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 63, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Recent studies concerning the debatable relationship have evolved it into a hypothesis whether the relation is nonlinear with a threshold or a point where the link switches. This study aims to re-examine the causality between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries period 2000Q1-2016Q4. The results based on Threshold Vector Autoregression model indicate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between the two variables.
Pengaruh Kompetisi Perbankan terhadap Stabilitas Keuangan: Pengujian Hipotesis Competition-Stability vs. Competition-Fragility Saputro, Siswono Ardi; Safuan, Sugiharso
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 13 No 1 (2024): April
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v13i1.519

Abstract

Penelitian ini menguji dua hipotesis dalam persaingan perbankan, yaitu competition stability dan competition-fragility di lima negara Asia Tenggara pada periode Masyarakat Ekonomi Asia dan dampak pandemi COVID-19 pada periode 2011–2022. Industri perbankan di Asia Tenggara telah mengalami pertumbuhan pesat konsolidasi bank, merger, dan akuisisi. Untuk tujuan investigasi ini, penulis menggunakan metode Merton distance to default dan Z-score sebagai pengukuran stabilitas keuangan dan menggunakan kompetisi Lerner index untuk pasar loan bank dan pasar deposit untuk mengevaluasi persaingan di industri perbankan. Penulis menemukan bahwa kedua hipotesis terjadi di industri perbankan Asia Tenggara, market power dapat mendorong stabilitas perbankan sementara tidak stabil dalam volatilitas pendapatan bank dan persaingan perbankan dapat membuat pendapatan dari operasi perbankan stabil untuk pasar loan, tetapi rentan terhadap risiko default.
Digital Financial Inclusion and Implications for Developing Countries Economic Growth Yaqin, Misbahol; Safuan, Sugiharso
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v8i1.38361

Abstract

This study aims to develop a model to measure financial inclusion by incorporating the evolution of digital finance and identifying its relationship with GDP growth in emerging nations. Data used are from 51 developing countries in 2014 and 2017. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to create the Digital Financial Inclusion Index. The fixed effects model (FEM) is used to estimate the association between the inclusion of digital finances and economic growth. According to the study, metrics of digital financial inclusion in emerging nations are in the middle. Compared to other research, the financial inclusion indicator in this study strengthens it. The study discovered that the inclusion of digital finance enhances GDP growth in developing nations after testing the influence of digital financial inclusion on GDP growth in developing countries.
Cash buffer and government securities issuance policy: An ARDL analysis of Indonesia’s fiscal coordination Pramana, Kukuh Sukma; Safuan, Sugiharso
Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara Vol. 11 No. 2 (2025): JTAKEN Issue in progress
Publisher : Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan Republik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28986/jtaken.v11i2.1936

Abstract

Indonesia’s fiscal policy is characterized by a persistent budget deficit, whereby government spending structurally exceeds revenues. To finance this gap, the government issues short-term government securities (GS). However, GS issuance generates interest expenses and may lead to idle cash accumulation in subsequent periods, raising concerns for GS management. Accordingly, this study investigated the extent to which government cash balances influence short-term GS issuance in Indonesia. Using quarterly data from 2015 to 2023, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed, supported by descriptive analysis, unit root testing, and robustness checks. Results indicate a linear relationship between GS issuance and cash balance. Particularly, an increase in cash balance will also increase GS issuance. Therefore, debt and cash managers must coordinate to increase the effectiveness of budget deficit financing through GS issuance and state cash management. The study contributes to the literature by highlighting the role of cash stability in shaping debt issuance behavior. Policy implications emphasize the need for stronger coordination between debt and cash managers to improve financing efficiency, minimize idle balances, and ensure sustainable fiscal discipline in government securities management.
Co-Authors Ambar Galih Beta Yulianita G. Laksono Galih, Ambar Heidy Ruswita Sari M. Abdi Shalihin Nurmalindah Nurmalindah Pramana, Kukuh Sukma Risna Triandhari Saputro, Siswono Ardi Shalihin, M. Abdi Suahasil Nazara Yaqin, Misbahol