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Prediction of Extreme Temperature in South Sumatra and Its Applications at The End of The 21st Century Hamdi Akhsan; Muhammad Romadoni; Melly Ariska
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol. 8 No. 2 (2022): April
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v8i2.1363

Abstract

This study examines trends and variations in extreme temperature indices in Palembang for the period 1980-2020. They are using data from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics, namely the Palembang Climatology Station and the Sultan Mahmud Baharudin II Meteorological Station from the 1981-2020 period, which were analyzed according to the rules of the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results obtained based on the analysis showed that the average maximum temperature index (TMAXmean) and the minimum temperature average index (TMINmean) increased significantly with Z values ​​= 5.21 and 7.10. Based on the correlation analysis between time and extreme temperature index, it is possible to predict the occurrence of TMAXmean and TMINmean for the end of the 21st century, namely in 2100 with a value of TMAXmean = 36.1℃ and TMINmean 25.7℃. The TMAXmean event also has a very close correlation with the total area of ​​Forest and Land Fires, as well as the contribution of Greenhouse Gases ( ) in this region. So, it can be concluded that reducing the rate of increase in TMAXmean and TMINmean can be done by not burning forests and land so that the contribution of GHG ( ) to the atmosphere is reduced
Karakteristik Iklim Di Kota Palembang Serta Implikasinya Terhadap Bencana Kabut Asap Muhammad Romadoni; Hamdi Akhsan
JIPFRI (Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Fisika dan Riset Ilmiah) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2022): November Edition
Publisher : Universitas Nurul Huda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30599/jipfri.v6i2.1541

Abstract

This research was conducted to determine the characteristics of the climate and its relationship to the haze disaster in the city of Palembang by utilizing data from the BMKG observation station, namely the Palembang Climatology Station and the Sultan Mahmud Baharudin II Meteorological Station, from 1981 to 2020. The research method used is secondary data research with a quantitative approach. The analysis used is according to the rules of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and indices ETCCDI. Trend analysis was carried out using the non-parametric Mankendal statistical and sens tests. The indices that experienced a significant trend were the temperature index, which indicates that the temperature in Palembang is increasing from time to time. The relationship between dry days has a correlation level of >0.9. This shows a close relationship between haze disasters and days without rain (CDD). The months prone to smog occur in June, July, August and September (JJAS).
Prediksi Perubahan Iklim Ekstrem di Kota Palembang dan Kaitannya dengan Fenomena El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Berbasis Machine Learning Melly Ariska; Hamdi Akhsan; Muhammad Muslim; Muhammad Romadoni; Fena Siska Putriyani
JIPFRI (Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Fisika dan Riset Ilmiah) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2022): November Edition
Publisher : Universitas Nurul Huda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30599/jipfri.v6i2.1611

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide predictions of climate conditions and trend of temperature rise in the city of Palembang in the 21st century. The BMKG station data used, namely SK Palembang and SM SMB II from the 2000-2020 period were analyzed based on the agreement of the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). ). Analysis using google colab shows that rainfall in the city of Palembang has a fairly high variability and a decrease in the number of rainy days that occur in the city of Palembang with the trend of air temperature, namely TMAXmean and TMINmean, has increased significantly by 2.40C for 50 years. Based on the correlation analysis between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with Google Colab, a negative relationship was found. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index used is the Niño 3.4 index. The study concluded that although the geographical location of Palembang city is located in the Asian Monsoon area, the ENSO phenomenon does not significantly affect rainfall variability in Palembang city.