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ANALISIS PENGARUH TERORISME, FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR, DAN STABILITAS POLITIK TERHADAP VOLATILITAS INDEKS SAHAM DI 3 NEGARA ASEAN + AS Alviyandi Lim; Nuning Trihadmini
Media Ekonomi Vol. 29 No. 2 (2021): Oktober
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1830.766 KB) | DOI: 10.25105/me.v29i2.10736

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of terrorism activity, exchange rate volatility, and political stability on stock index volatility, with a sample of four countries, namely: Indonesia, Thailand,  Philippines and the United States. This analysis is carried out by combining the GARCH-PANEL model, with an observation period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2017. The results of the study show that terrorism activities, exchange rate fluctuations, and political stability have a significant effect on capital market volatility. Among these variables, political stability has the greatest influence, followed by terrorist activity and lastly, exchange rate volatility. Terrorist activities have a negative impact on the stock index, because it causes an unfavorable investment climate so that the volatility of the stock index increases.
WORKSHOP ANALISIS DATA KUANTITATIF DAN KUALITATIF UNTUK AKADEMISI DAN PROFESIONAL Nuning Trihadmini; Siti Saadah; YB Suhartoko; Stanislaus S. Uyanto; Teresia Angelia Kusumahadi
MADANI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8 No 2 (2022): Madani : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : LPPM UPN Veteran Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (303.572 KB) | DOI: 10.53834/mdn.v8i2.5153

Abstract

Problems with data processing and analysis capabilities often hinder lecturers and students in producing research work. Likewise, employees in the financial sector perform data processing in order to support their tasks, namely being able to analyze data into strategic information for the company. The problem solving is carried out by the Master of Applied Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia, Jakarta, by organizing a Quantitative and Qualitative Data Analysis Workshop for students, lecturers,  and financial practitioners. The activity starts from July 19 to August 19, 2022. Learning media is held online through Zoom Meetings. The participants of this activity are lecturers and students from various institutions/universities throughout Indonesia, from the University of North Sumatra to the University of Ottow Geissler Papua, as well as from practitioners of financial institutions. The number of applicants for this Data Analysis Training is 558 participants.  Workshop material is an introduction to regression analysis & multivariate modeling (data stationarity,ARDL, ECM, cointegration), univariate modeling (ARMA / ARIMA), Volatility modeling (GARCH), Logistics Regression Analysis, VAR, Panel Data Analysis, data analysis with R Studio, Multivariate statistical analysis (PCA, Discriminant, Cluster Analysis) and path analysis (Path Analysis). Based on the evaluation of the participants, this workshop is very useful for them and it is hoped that there will be a follow-up workshop
Determinasi Indikator Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Terhadap Pengangguran di ASEAN6: Analisis Data Panel Jeniko, Fiona; Trihadmini, Nuning
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PPJP ULM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20527/jiep.v8i1.2061

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of unemployment in six ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—during the 2010–2023 period, focusing on the roles of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using panel data analysis with a fixed effects model, the results show that FDI has no significant impact on unemployment, while HDI unexpectedly has a positive correlation. GDP significantly reduces unemployment, confirming the role of economic growth in absorbing labor. CPI, contrary to conventional theory, also significantly lowers unemployment. The Covid-19 pandemic, however, significantly increases unemployment across the region. These findings highlight the complex interplay between macroeconomic indicators and labor markets in ASEAN6 and suggest the need for targeted policy responses that address structural vulnerabilities and enhance labor market resilience.
Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Makro dan Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Indeks Saham di ASEAN dan Negara Maju Kartowisastro, Alif Herwinandityo; Trihadmini, Nuning
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) Edisi Agustus 2024
Publisher : Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jrie.v4i2.114

Abstract

Pasar saham merupakan bagian penting dari pasar keuangan dalam perekonomian. Dengan menggunakan Teori Penetapan Harga Arbitrase, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel makroekonomi dan kebijakan moneter terhadap indeks saham di 5 negara ASEAN dan 4 negara maju tahun 2010-2019. Metode yang digunakan adalah Data Panel dengan menggunakan Model Efek Tetap (Fixed Effect Model/FEM). Variabel bebas makroekonomi adalah inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, dan nilai tukar, sedangkan suku bunga bank sentral merupakan variabel kebijakan moneter. Di negara ASEAN dan negara maju, inflasi dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif terhadap kedua kelompok negara tersebut, namun pengaruhnya lebih besar terhadap negara maju, sedangkan suku bunga kebijakan berdampak negatif namun intensitas pengaruhnya di negara ASEAN lebih besar. Perbedaan dari perbandingan ini terdapat pada jumlah uang beredar, dimana ASEAN memiliki pengaruh positif, sedangkan negara maju memiliki pengaruh negatif. Hal ini dapat disebabkan oleh faktor ekspektasi inflasi, likuiditas pasar, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kontribusi penelitian ini bagi negara-negara ASEAN, khususnya Indonesia, adalah mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor ekonomi makro yang memengaruhi pergerakan indeks saham, membantu pembuat kebijakan dalam merumuskan kebijakan yang efektif, mengembangkan strategi investasi yang lebih baik, dan mengurangi risiko pasar.
Dampak Multivariat Volatility, Contagion dan Spillover Effect Pasar Keuangan Global terhadap lndeks Saham dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia Trihadmini, Nuning; B. S. W., Pudjiastuti
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

There are several factors influencing the financial system stability, namely the internal and the external factors. The occurrence of stock price volatility internationally, the contagion effects and the spillover effects are some external factors that have effect on the financial system stability. This research aims to know the dynamic relationship of regional and global stocks market in international financial system, and then do the analysis of the occurrence of contagion effects and spillover effects on stock price, and see their influence on domestic economics, monetary policy and financial system stability, by GARCH-VAR model.The results of this research indicate that there are some domination of the mature financial market to regional and domestic market. Moreover, the nearby regional stock price index also have a big contribution to the movement of other regional stock price market. The impact of stock price volatility to the IDR exchange rates volatility is relatively small, but not to the price level which is significantly large. Data analysis shows that there is contagion effects in stock market, but the spillover effect from stock price volatility to exchange rates volatility does not occur.
Spillover Effect of US Monetary Policy on the Indonesian Economy Nuning Trihadmini; R Mahelan Prabantarikso
International Journal of Accounting and Finance in Asia Pasific (IJAFAP) Vol 9, No 2 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : AIBPM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32535/ijafap.v9i2.4577

Abstract

Post-pandemic monetary tightening in the United States (US) has increased external vulnerabilities for emerging economies, including Indonesia. This study examines the spillover effects of US monetary policy on Indonesia’s financial and real sectors during 2020–2023. Using monthly data, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are employed to analyze dynamic shock transmission between US and Indonesian macro-financial variables. The results show that spillovers from US financial variables to Indonesia’s financial sector average 9.23%, exceeding those from US real variables (7.80%). The largest spillovers originate from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (11.62%) and the US 10-year Treasury yield (10.54%). Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and exchange rate absorb the strongest external shocks, with spillover values of 10.19% and 9.72%, respectively. In the real sector, the average spillover effect reaches 7.46%, while the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) records the highest spillover absorption (10.28%). The strongest individual transmission is observed from the US government debt to Indonesia’s CLI, reaching 23.69%. These findings indicate that US monetary policy influences Indonesia mainly through financial-market and expectations channels, highlighting the need to strengthen macro-financial resilience and monitor global forward-looking indicators.
Analysis of the Influence of Micro, Small and Medium Business Growth on Poverty Reduction in 5 ASEAN Countries Ernestus Florian Lamaile; Nuning Trihadmini
International Journal of Small and Medium Enterprises and Business Sustainability Vol. 7 No. 3 (2022): November
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Trisakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of micro, small and medium (SME) growth on poverty alleviation in 5 ASEAN Countries with the research period 2010-2019. The sample of this study is 5 ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The dependent variable in this study is poverty as measured by the proportion of the population living below the international poverty line, in terms of the number of monetary units to meet the minimum living needs. This study uses the Panel Data method and the results show that there is significant relationship between MSME growth, the Trade Openness Index, per capita income growth, and the Human Development Index on poverty alleviation in 5 ASEAN countries.
Analysis of the Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on Welfare in ASEAN and BRICS Countries Mohamad Fidelio Omar Bestari; Inka Brahmantyo Yusgiantoro; Nuning Trihadmini; Yohanes Berchman Suhartoko
Ilomata International Journal of Management Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): January 2026
Publisher : Yayasan Sinergi Kawula Muda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61194/ijjm.v7i1.1982

Abstract

This study investigates the multifaceted impacts of two global megatrends—globalization and digitalization—on public welfare in the ASEAN and BRICS nations from 2007 to 2024. Amid the prevailing narrative that links both phenomena to economic progress, this thesis critically analyses the influence of proxy variables for globalization (trade openness and foreign capital inflows) and digitalization (internet penetration and social media usage), alongside crucial domestic factors such as corruption and entrepreneurship, on three primary welfare indicators: per capita income, unemployment rate, and the poverty level. The principal objective of this research is to deliver nuanced empirical evidence on how the interplay of external forces and internal conditions shapes the welfare landscape in two of the world's most dynamic economic blocs. Employing a quantitative approach through panel data regression analysis, the findings reveal complex and non- uniform relationships. The analysis indicates that trade openness and internet penetration significantly contribute to a reduction in the unemployment rate. Conversely, social media usage demonstrates a negative correlation with per capita income and a positive association with rising poverty, suggesting potential counter-productive impacts and the promotion of consumptive behaviours. Furthermore, domestic governance factors, particularly corruption, are proven to have a significant influence on impeding income growth and exacerbating employment conditions. These findings affirm that the benefits of globalization and digitalization are not automatic but are heavily contingent upon the quality of domestic institutions and policies capable of optimizing opportunities and mitigating emergent risks.