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All Journal Jurnal Penelitian dan Evaluasi Pendidikan Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen Communications in Science and Technology Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan JUSTIN (Jurnal Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga
Agung Priyo Utomo
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Determinan Perilaku Swamedikasi Penduduk Jawa Tengah Utomo, Agung Priyo; Syahida, Inayati; Berliana, Sarni Maniar; Samosir, Omas Bulan; Sugiarto, Sugiarto
Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga Vol. 2, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Self-medication has been practiced globally for thousands of years. As a part of primary healthcare services, self-medication forms the cornerstone of a sustainable healthcare system supporting universal health coverage, which is targeted in Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3), target 3.8. This study aims to provide an overview of self-medication behaviors and the factors influencing them among residents of Central Java Province. Using data from the 2021 National Socio-Economic Survey provided by the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, the sample size of this study includes 19,998 individuals, with 82.1% engaging in self-medication. The prevalence of self-medication is higher among males (84.0%) compared to females (80.6%). Self-medication is more common among individuals who are employed, live in rural areas, are unmarried, do not have health insurance, use the internet, are not poor, or have health complaints that do not interfere with daily activities, compared to their corresponding counterparts. The proportion of self-medication decreases with increasing age or higher education levels. Further binary logistic regression analysis identifies that the propensity for self-medication is higher among males (OR=1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.26), employed individuals (OR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.30-1.52), unmarried individuals (OR=1.17; 95% CI: 1.07-1.28), those without health insurance (OR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.20-1.44), the poor (OR=1.16; 95% CI: 1.02-1.31), those with health complaints that do not disrupt daily activities (OR=1.54; 95% CI: 1.43-1.66). The government needs to provide education and information regarding safe and responsible self-medication practices to at-risk groups, such as those with lower education levels, those without health insurance, and the poor, to maximize the benefits of self-medication and minimize the negative impacts of self-medication behaviors.
Peramalan Harga Minyak Goreng Sawit di Indonesia: Perbandingan Model ARIMAX-GARCH, SVR, dan LSTM Yulianto, Mukhamad Dinda Manis; Utomo, Agung Priyo
JUSTIN (Jurnal Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Informatika Universitas Tanjungpura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26418/justin.v14i2.97766

Abstract

Fluktuasi harga minyak goreng sawit sebagai komoditas pangan strategis memiliki dampak langsung terhadap inflasi dan stabilitas ekonomi rumah tangga di Indonesia. Meskipun berbagai penelitian telah mengembangkan model peramalan harga berbasis statistik konvensional maupun machine learning, sebagian besar masih membandingkan metode dalam pendekatan yang sama serta jarang mengintegrasikan indikator permintaan berbasis big data. Penelitian ini menawarkan kontribusi baru dengan membandingkan secara langsung pendekatan statistik konvensional ARIMAX–GARCH dan metode machine learning, yaitu Support Vector Regression (SVR) dan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), dalam meramalkan harga minyak goreng sawit kemasan di Indonesia, dengan memasukkan Indeks Google Trends sebagai proksi sisi permintaan. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMAX(2,1,2)–GARCH(1,1) menghasilkan kinerja terbaik dengan RMSE sebesar 1.274,29 dan MAPE 4,89%, dibandingkan dengan model SVR dan LSTM. Keunggulan model ini terletak pada kemampuannya dalam memodelkan heteroskedastisitas dan fenomena volatility clustering yang umum terjadi pada data harga pangan, sehingga menghasilkan estimasi titik dan interval peramalan yang lebih andal. Model terpilih memproyeksikan harga minyak goreng sawit cenderung menurun secara bertahap dari Rp21.692 pada Januari 2025 menjadi sekitar Rp20.988 pada Desember 2025. Hasil penelitian ini dapat dimanfaatkan oleh Kementerian Perdagangan sebagai komponen utama dalam pengembangan sistem peringatan dini harga minyak goreng sawit, dengan memanfaatkan interval kepercayaan sebagai sinyal awal untuk mempertimbangkan intervensi pasar, seperti operasi pasar atau kebijakan Domestic Market Obligation (DMO), guna menjaga stabilitas harga dan ketersediaan pasokan domestik.
Co-Authors Abdul Karim Bahrul Hayat, Bahrul Farihah, Raisa Gabriela, Patrisia Jahja Umar Januardi, Ryan Willmanda Putra, Muhammad Dwirifqi Kharisma Rini Rahani Samosir, Omas Bulan Saputro, Agung Eddy Suryo Sarni Maniar Berliana, Sarni Maniar Sugiarto S Syahida, Inayati Yulianto, Mukhamad Dinda Manis