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All Journal Economics and Finance in Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic and Finance in Indonesia
Kacaribu, Febrio
Institute For Economic And Social Research, Faculty Of Economics And Business, Universitas Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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Enhancing Resilience to Turbulent Global Financial Markets: An Indonesian Experience Sri Mulyani Indrawati; Ndiame Diop; Mohamad Ikhsan; Febrio Kacaribu
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 66, Number 1, June 2020
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (625.499 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v66i1.683

Abstract

In the empirical literature, large and abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, typically hit asset markets and generate output losses in the receiving countries. The significant decrease in capital flows to emerging markets in 2018 is a unique opportunity to test this premise. Using Indonesian data, we found that the sharp decline in capital inflows for over two consecutive quarters in 2018 had an adverse impact on the currency, equities, and bond markets, but no discernible output loss was recorded. Real GDP growth remained resilient throughout 2018 and held broadly steady at around 5 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Furthermore, asset markets rebounded quickly, regaining most of the losses incurred by March 2019. We attribute this resilience to Indonesia’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals and responsive fiscal and monetary policies. We argue that to sustain this resilience in the years to come, complementary structural reforms to boost export-oriented FDI would be needed. The 2020 COVID-19 global pandemic has put the emerging economies to the test again, with a possibly more significant impact. We will revisit our analysis in the future in the aftermath of the pandemic. 
Recent Developments in Indonesia’s Macro-economy and Trade, Q1-2018 Febrio Kacaribu; Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja; Mohamad Dian Revindo; Syahda Sabrina; Zehan Pricilia; Yeremia Natanael
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 64, Number 1, June 2018
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (556.243 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v64i1.582

Abstract

This paper discusses Indonesia’s macroeconomic and trade development in the first quarter of 2018. The macroeconomic data shows that the industrial growth was inhibited by regulatory regime inconsistency, while consumption growth still lagged overall GDP growth, and investment growth tended to rise. The trade data shows that the non-oil-and-gas commodities dominated its export, although the commodities’ terms-of-trade declined. Indonesia’s imports were mostly used as raw and auxiliary materials for the input of domestic production. The data also reveals that the larger the firms, the stronger tendency that they have comparative advantage in capital-intensive commodities, and vice versa.
Pengaruh Volatilitas Makroekonomi terhadap Alokasi Kredit Bank Colin, Simanjuntak Ronald; Kacaribu, Febrio
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 21, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study discusses the impact of macroeconomic volatility on bank credit allocation. The hypothesis built that macroeconomic volatility will influence banks to careful in issuing new loans. This study uses panel data with a sample of 10 banks using Baum model. This study uses the macroeconomic volatility as independent variables. This study uses a generalized method of moment regression test to examine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The results of this study indicate negative relationship between inflation volatility and volatility in GDP growth with lending, whereas the volatility of exchange rate depreciation does not have effect on lending.
Recent Developments in Indonesia's Macro-economy and Trade, Q1-2018 Kacaribu, Febrio
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 64, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This paper discusses Indonesia's macroeconomic and trade development in the first quarter of 2018. The macroeconomic data shows that the industrial growth was inhibited by regulatory regime inconsistency, while consumption growth still lagged overall GDP growth, and investment growth tended to rise. The trade data shows that the non-oil-and-gas commodities dominated its export, although the commodities terms-of-trade declined. Indonesia's imports were mostly used as raw and auxiliary materials for the input of domestic production. The data also reveals that the larger the firms, the stronger tendency that they have comparative advantage in capital-intensive commodities, and vice versa.
Enhancing Resilience to Turbulent Global Financial Markets: An Indonesian Experience Kacaribu, Febrio
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 66, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

In the empirical literature, large and abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, typically hit asset markets and generate output losses in the receiving countries. The significant decrease in capital flows to emerging markets in 2018 is a unique opportunity to test this premise. Using Indonesian data, we found that the sharp decline in capital inflows for over two consecutive quarters in 2018 had an adverse impact on the currency, equities, and bond markets, but no discernible output loss was recorded. Real GDP growth remained resilient throughout 2018 and held broadly steady at around 5 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Furthermore, asset markets rebounded quickly, regaining most of the losses incurred by March 2019. We attribute this resilience to Indonesia's strong macroeconomic fundamentals and responsive fiscal and monetary policies. We argue that to sustain this resilience in the years to come, complementary structural reforms to boost export-oriented FDI would be needed. The 2020 COVID-19 global pandemic has put the emerging economies to the test again, with a possibly more significant impact. We will revisit our analysis in the future in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Co-Authors Advis Budiman Alvin Ulido Lumbanraja Colin, Simanjuntak Ronald Fitri Ami Handayani Mohamad Ikhsan Ndiame Diop Novi Maryaningsih Revindo, Mohamad Dian Solikin M Juhro Solikin M. Juhro Sri Mulyani Indrawati Suahasil Nazara Sugiharso Safuan Syahda Sabrina Syahda Sabrina Teuku Muhammad Riefky Hasan Yeremia Natanael Zehan Pricilia