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Peramalan dan Analisis Subsektoral Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Jawa Timur Rif'an Hariri
JIA (Jurnal Ilmiah Agribisnis) : Jurnal Agribisnis dan Ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Agribusiness, Halu Oleo University Jointly with Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (PERHEPI/ISAE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37149/jia.v10i2.1870

Abstract

The agricultural sector's contribution to the economy and food security in East Java province is so significant that it is necessary to consider the welfare of farmers. The farmer exchange rate, popularly called NTP, is a crucial indicator of farmer welfare. The first objective is to forecast the combined farmer exchange rate and subsector farmer exchange rate in East Java Province, and the second objective is to analyze the relationship between the subsector farmer exchange rate and the combined farmer exchange rate in East Java Province. Using multiple linear regression, the forecasting method used is triple exponential smoothing to analyze the relationship between the subsector farmer exchange rate and the combined farmer exchange rate. The results show that the combined farmer exchange rate in 2025 is predicted to decrease. The exchange rate of the subsector farmers is expected to decline in 2025, but only for food crops. The exchange rate of subsector farmers in food crops, horticulture, smallholder plantations, livestock, and fisheries simultaneously has a significant effect. It also has a considerable impact on the combined farmer exchange rate.
Analysis of Comparative Advantages and Export Potential of Indonesian Green Tea in the International Market Rif'an Hariri
Agroindustrial Technology Journal Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Agroindustrial Technology Journal [ATJ]
Publisher : Universitas Darussalam Gontor

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Abstract

Green tea is an export commodity produced by Indonesia. This commodity is produced from tea plantations in Indonesia. Currently, the value and volume of green tea exports are still lower than those of black tea. Therefore, it is necessary to study the comparative advantage and potentialexportfor green tea in the international market. The novelty in this research is combining the comparative advantages and export potential of green tea which has not been researched previously. This study aims to analyze the comparative advantageand potential exportof Indonesian green tea in the international market.The data used is Indonesian green tea export from 2006 to 2023. The data sources are UN Comtrade and the Central Statistics Agency.This study used the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) method, the trade specialization index, export product dynamic (EPD) method and X model. The results obtained indicate that the comparative advantage of green tea in the international market is relatively weak, as evidencedby the RCA value of less than 1. The trade specialization index is positive. A positive trade index indicates that Indonesia is classified as a green tea exporter. The weakening of Indonesia's comparative advantage in green tea has not impacted its position in the international market. The position of green tea in international trade based on export product dynamics is still in the rising star position, which means that Indonesian green tea is still in a profitable position.Based on the X model, Indonesian green tea still has the potential to be developed in the international market.