Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati
Department Of Geophysics And Meteorology, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, IPB University, Dramaga Campus, Bogor, Indonesia 16680

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PREDIKSI AWAL MUSIM HUJAN BERDASARKAN INDEKS VARIABILITAS IKLIM DI PULAU JAWA Rohmawati, Fithriya Yulisiasih; Boer, Rizaldi; Faqih, Akhmad
Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal) Vol 38, No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jti.v38n1.2014.35-42

Abstract

Abstrak. Informasi terkait awal musim hujan (AMH) memiliki peranan penting dalam penyusunan strategi tanam guna meningkatkan hasil pertanian yang optimum. Penelitian ini bertujuan menyusun model prediksi AMH di Jawa sebagai daerah sentra pangan di Indonesia menggunakan indeks variabilitas iklim seperti El Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO), El Nino Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dan Sea Surface Temperature (SST) serta Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Model persamaan AMH disusun menggunakan model regresi linier dan skill model prediksi dievaluasi menggunakan Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ENSO (indeks anomali SST Nino 3.4) menjelaskan sebagian besar variabilitas AMH di Jawa. Oleh karena itu, ENSO bulan Juli dan Agustus digunakan sebagai prediktor AMH. Model persamaan yang disusun berdasarkan indeks tersebut mempunyai skill baik. Rata-rata skill model prediksi mencapai 84% (ENSO bulan Juli) dan 76% (ENSO bulan Agustus) untuk AMH maju dari normal dan 83% (ENSO bulan Juli) dan 86% (ENSO bulan Agustus) untuk AMH mundur dari normal. Dengan hasil tersebut, maka model persamaan dalam penelitian ini cukup dapat memberikan solusi terhadap masalah keakuratan informasi AMH terutama untuk AMH mundur dari normal yang berdampak pada kegagalan panen. Abstract. Monsoon onset information plays an important role in setting up planting strategy for achieving optimum yield. This study aimed to develop forecasting model for the monsoon onset in main rice growing areas of Java, Indonesia using climate variability indices, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Nino Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The forecasting models of the monsoon onset were developed using a linear regression model and that skill of the prediction models were evaluated using Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC). It was found that ENSO (anomaly SST Nino 3.4) explained most of the variability of monsoon onset across Java. Therefore, the SST Nino 3.4 index (in July and August) can be used as one of predictors for predicting the onset. The models developed using this index have a better skill. The average skill of the models for forecasting advanced monsoon onset reached 84% (July?s ENSO) and 76% (August?s ENSO), then for the delayed monsoon onset reached 83% (July?s ENSO) and 86% (August?s ENSO). According to this result, the equation?s model can provide a sufficient solution for the accuracy of monsoon onset information particularly if there is a delay in monsoon onset that can lead to the crop failure.
Prediksi Awal Musim Hujan di Jawa Menggunakan Data Luaran Regional Climate Model Version 3.1 (RegCM3) Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati; Rizaldi Boer; Akhmad Faqih
Agromet Vol. 28 No. 1 (2014)
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (357.875 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.28.1.17-22

Abstract

Monsoon onset information plays an important role in setting up planting strategy for achieving optimum yield. This study aimed to develop forecasting model for the monsoon onset in main rice growing area of Java used Regional Climate Model Version 3.1 (RegCM3). The forecasting models of the monsoon onset and September-Oktober-November (SON) rainfall data were developed using regression model that have the highest coefficient determination and the models were tested using likelihood ratio test. It was found that the forecasting models of the monsoon onset and September-Oktober-November rainfall data were polynomial orde 2 or cuadratic that have coefficient determination 69%, 74%, 80% and 86%. Likelihood ratio test found that RegCM3 rainfall data was not significantly different with observation rainfall data (α = 0.05). Onset in Java between 25th until 34th of 10-days period (early September until early December).
The Effect of Car Free Day (CFD) on Pollutant Emissions at Alternative Roads (Case Study: RE Martadinata Street, Bogor City) Rachmawati Aida; Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati; Ana Turyanti
Agromet Vol. 33 No. 1 (2019): JUNE 2019
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (707.115 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.33.1.8-19

Abstract

Car Free Day (CFD) is a social campaign aimed to reduce the dependence of people on vehicle uses, which occurs once per week in Bogor. The idea intends to decrease the vehicle emissions. However, CFD is often to cause a new problem like the congestions, which are found on the nearby alternative roads, as happened in RE Martadinata Street, Bogor City. This study aims to compare the emission load and the concentrations of pollutants in ambient air during CFD (06.00-09.00 am) and non-CFD days in alternative road. We measured the following pollutants: CO, HC, NOx, PM10 and SO2. This research first applied Fixed-Box Model to estimate concentration of pollutants, then we used the Finite Length Line Source (FLLS) to estimate dispersion of pollutants. The results showed that there was no substantial difference in pollutant emissions between CFD and non-CFD days. But if we separate between weekdays and weekend, our analysis revealed that emissions during the weekend are bigger than that of weekdays. This was consistent with an increase of number of vehicles during the weekends by 17.2%. Based on our analysis, motorcycle contributes to an increased of CO, HC, PM10 pollutants, whereas SO2 and NOx pollutants were generated by cars. Our findings suggest that a short time of CFD does not contribute a lot to reduce the emissions.
Season Onset Prediction Based on Statistical Model for Malang Regency, East Java Fithriya Y Rohmawati; Urfana Istiqomah; Rahmat Hidayat
Agromet Vol. 36 No. 1 (2022): JUNE 2022
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.36.1.21-30

Abstract

Prediction of season onset is important for many sectors, particularly on agricultural practices, as its usage for reducing climate risk and planning activities. Current knowledge on season onset prediction mainly focused on large area, which remains research challenge for local level. This research developed model prediction of season onset for Malang Regency, East Java based on global climate data. The research specifically aimed to: (i) determine the onset date of rainy and dry season, (ii) generate equation for onset date prediction using principal component regression (PCR) approach, and (iii) evaluate the model performance. We depend on statistical model based on a combine of domain time and principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric variables, namely sea level pressure, outgoing longwave radiation, and zonal wind. We used the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for model evaluation, especially for determination of onset date. Based on cumulative anomalies rainfall, the onset date for dry season occurred in the early May, whereas for rainy season it was in early November. The results showed that regression models of the principal components had a good skill to predict onset date for both seasons. It has been confirmed by a low error and a high correlation. Visually, the dynamic of onset dates from model was mostly identical to the observation. The predictive model for rainy season had higher performance compared to the model for dry season. This finding was confirmed by insignificant difference resulted from the independent t-test between model and observed onset dates. The best model for dry season was conducted by domain time of February, whereas for rainy season was domain time of August. This research can be used to complement previous studies regarding season onset prediction in Indonesia.
KONDISI ATMOSFER PADA KEJADIAN BANJIR DESEMBER 2007 SAMPAI JANUARI 2008 DI KABUPATEN BOJONEGORO Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati; Ana Turyanti; Indah Prasasti
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol 16, No 2 (2015)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2462.342 KB) | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v16i2.270

Abstract

Banjir merupakan salah satu bencana yang menimbulkan kerugian bagi manusia. Bencana tersebut biasanya didahului oleh curah hujan yang tinggi (lebat) dan lama. Proses terjadinya hujan yang tinggi dan lama memerlukan kondisi atmosfer yang mendukung seperti . Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah menjelaskan kondisi atmosfer pada saat banjir di Kabupaten Bojonegoro tanggal 26 Desember 2007 sampai 7 Januari 2008. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kondisi atmosfer saat banjir tidak stabil, kandungan uap air tinggi, pengangkatan massa udara intensif dan kecepatan angin rendah. Kondisi tersebut cukup potensial dalam menyebabkan hujan yang lebat, meskipun kondisi atmosfer tersebut belum termasuk kategori ekstrim. Dengan demikian banjir tersebut tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi atmosfer setempat tetapi dipengaruhi juga oleh kondisi atmosfer sekitarnya dan kondisi permukaan. Flood is one of the disasters that cause harm to humans. That disaster is usually preceded by heavy and long-term rainfall. The occurrence of high and long-term rainfall requires atmospheric conditions that supported it. The main objective of this study is to explain the atmospheric conditions while flood events in Bojonegoro on December 26th, 2007 until January 7th, 2008. The analysis showed that the atmospheric conditions are unstable during floods, high moisture content and the removal of intensive air mass and low wind speeds. The atmospheric condition during the flood was sufficient to support the heavy rain but not in extreme categories. Therefore, the flood-affected by atmospheric conditions in the surrounding area and surface conditions in that area.
KONDISI ATMOSFER PADA KEJADIAN BANJIR DESEMBER 2007 SAMPAI JANUARI 2008 DI KABUPATEN BOJONEGORO Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati; Ana Turyanti; Indah Prasasti
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol. 16 No. 2 (2015)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v16i2.270

Abstract

Banjir merupakan salah satu bencana yang menimbulkan kerugian bagi manusia. Bencana tersebut biasanya didahului oleh curah hujan yang tinggi (lebat) dan lama. Proses terjadinya hujan yang tinggi dan lama memerlukan kondisi atmosfer yang mendukung seperti . Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah menjelaskan kondisi atmosfer pada saat banjir di Kabupaten Bojonegoro tanggal 26 Desember 2007 sampai 7 Januari 2008. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kondisi atmosfer saat banjir tidak stabil, kandungan uap air tinggi, pengangkatan massa udara intensif dan kecepatan angin rendah. Kondisi tersebut cukup potensial dalam menyebabkan hujan yang lebat, meskipun kondisi atmosfer tersebut belum termasuk kategori ekstrim. Dengan demikian banjir tersebut tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi atmosfer setempat tetapi dipengaruhi juga oleh kondisi atmosfer sekitarnya dan kondisi permukaan. Flood is one of the disasters that cause harm to humans. That disaster is usually preceded by heavy and long-term rainfall. The occurrence of high and long-term rainfall requires atmospheric conditions that supported it. The main objective of this study is to explain the atmospheric conditions while flood events in Bojonegoro on December 26th, 2007 until January 7th, 2008. The analysis showed that the atmospheric conditions are unstable during floods, high moisture content and the removal of intensive air mass and low wind speeds. The atmospheric condition during the flood was sufficient to support the heavy rain but not in extreme categories. Therefore, the flood-affected by atmospheric conditions in the surrounding area and surface conditions in that area.
The Relationship Between Wind and Rain in the Qur’an: Thematic Interpretation Approach and Meteorological Analysis Rohmawati, Fithriya Yulisiasih; Alim, Ahmad Syahirul
AL QUDS : Jurnal Studi Alquran dan Hadis Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Curup

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29240/alquds.v8i1.6748

Abstract

Wind and rain are natural phenomena around us that are considered normal. In fact, both can only happen with the power of Allah SWT, humans are unable to intervene in it. Scholars have interpreted verses related to wind and rain from a linguistic perspective, but this is not enough to explain this phenomenon more fully. This research was prepared as an effort to complete thematic interpretation studies to reveal the relationship between wind and rain in the Al-Quran using a scientific interpretation method approach and meteorological analysis. The method used is literature study by referring to the tafsir of al-Thabari, Ibn Kathir and al-Tantawi as well as scientific articles in the field of meteorology. The results of the study show that; There are seven verses in the Koran regarding wind (al-Riyah) which are related to rain. Not all wind is related to rain. Wind can help the process of forming clouds and moving clouds, help the rotation of the rainy season, and be a source of information about the rainy season or daily rain events. However, there are interpretations from several Muslim scholars that are not in accordance with current meteorological studies. This is possible due to limited knowledge when the interpretation was made or limited understanding and references by the author more broadly in the field of meteorology.
Spatial Analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth in Western Java Indonesia Rajwa Hanan; Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati; Idung Risdiyanto; Sonni Setiawan
International Journal of Science and Mathematics Education Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): June: International Journal of Science and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62951/ijsme.v2i2.196

Abstract

Air quality in Western Java is highly dynamic and shaped by environmental changes influenced by intense human activities. Aerosols—tiny particulate matter that affects air quality, weather, and climate—can be quantified using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), which measures aerosol concentrations in the atmospheric column. This research uses spatial regression analysis to examine the spatial distribution of AOD from GEE’s platform (Google Earth Engine) and its relationship with rainfall and wind patterns during both the wet and dry seasons. The findings indicate that wind speed does not significantly impact AOD values, but wind direction does affect the distribution of rainfall and AOD, likely due to the monsoon system. During the wet season (December to March), high-intensity and widespread rainfall effectively cleanses the atmosphere of aerosols, leading to no significant effect on AOD (p-value > 0.05). In contrast, during the dry season, rainfall significantly influences AOD spatial patterns (p-value < 0.05). These results highlight the intricate interplay between meteorological factors and aerosol’s behavior, emphasizing the seasonal variability in their interactions.