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All Journal Journal of Management Review InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Indonesian Capital Market Review The South East Asian Journal of Management
Suardi, Lenny
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Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Mathematics

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Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices in Indonesian Corporations Suardi, Lenny; Syamsudin, M.
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 2, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This paper applies the maximum likelihood (ML) approaches to implementing the structural model of corporate bond, as suggested by Li and Wong (2008), in Indonesian corporations. Two structural models, extended Merton and Longstaff & Schwartz (LS) models, are used in determining these prices, yields, yield spreads and probabilities of default. ML estimation is used to determine the volatility of irm value. Since irm value is unobserved variable, Duan (1994) suggested that the irst step of ML estimation is to derive the likelihood function for equity as the option on the irm value. The second step is to ind parameters such as the drift and volatility of irm value, that maximizing this function. The irm value itself is extracted by equating the pricing formula to the observed equity prices. Equity, total liabilities, bond prices data and the irm's parameters (irm value, volatility of irm value, and default barrier) are substituted to extended Merton and LS bond pricing formula in order to valuate the corporate bond.These models are implemented to a sample of 24 bond prices in Indonesian corporation during period of 2001-2005, based on criteria of Eom, Helwege and Huang (2004). The equity and bond prices data were obtained from Indonesia Stock Exchange for irms that issued equity and provided regular inancial statement within this period. The result shows that both models, in average, underestimate the bond prices and overestimate the yields and yield spread.
Catching the Behavior of Stock Market: Numerical Approach to Estimate the Catalytic Chemical Model Parameters Husodo, Zäafri Ananto; Suardi, Lenny; Setiati, Ririen; Hudiyono, Risca Fleureta
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 7, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This research proposes a numerical approach in estimating the trend of behavior of this market. This approach is applied to a model that is inspired by catalytic chemical model, in terms of differential equations, on four composite indices, New York Stock Exchange, Hong Kong Hang Seng, Straits Times Index, and Jakarta Stock Exchange, as suggested by Caetano and Yoneyama (2011). The approach is used to minimize the difference of estimated indices based on the model with respect to the actual data set. The result shows that the estimation is able to capture the trend of behavior in stock market well.
Households Perceptions on Factors Affecting Resilience towards Natural Disasters in Indonesia Viverita, Viverita; Kusumastuti, Ratih Dyah; Husodo, Zaäfri Ananto; Suardi, Lenny; Danarsari, Dwi Nastiti
The South East Asian Journal of Management Vol. 8, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Most areas in Indonesia are prone to natural disasters. Learning the lessons from the Aceh Tsunami in 2004, areas with high risks of natural disasters are in the process of preparing themselves for such an unexpected event, by increasing their resilience. The objective of this study is to shed more lights on factors affecting the resilience from two sources namely, existing literatures and the application of disaster management in four disaster-prone areas in Indonesia -Padang, Sleman, Cilacap, and Palu. To enrich our analysis, we collect data from the field to compare the preparedness and to get insights on people’s perceptions towards the factors of resilience in those areas.We employ IDI and FGD to identify the factors of resilience and the preparedness in the areas investigated. Thereafter, a preliminary survey is conducted to identify people’s perceptions towards the aspects of resilience in the areas. Results from the survey conducted to 800 households in Padang and Cilacap indicates that from the social aspect, community’s value cohesiveness is one of important factor affecting their resilience towards natural disaster. In addition, since almost 85 percent of their income was spending to fulfill their daily basic needs such as foods, clothing, and housing. Therefore, when disaster occurred, they heavily relied on the help of debt or selling some of their assets, as well as used cash in hand as emergency funds. In general, respondents in all sample cities are able to re-start their economic activities as soon as two weeks after the event of disaster. In addition, the survey found that most of respondents were aware that the government has programs to educate people on the disaster mitigation.
Pengaruh Pengungkapan Enterprises Risk Management (ERM) Terhadap Profitabilitas Perusahaan Terbuka di Industri Keuangan Tahun 2021 Hakim, Fahmi; Suardi, Lenny
Journal of Management Review Vol 7, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Magister Manajement Studies Program

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25157/jmr.v7i2.10655

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan bukti empiris pengaruh pengungkapan Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) terhadap profitabilitas perusahaan terbuka di industri keuangan. Populasi pada penelitian ini adalah perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada industri keuangan tahun 2021. Data nonkeuangan yang terkait pengungkapan ERM diperoleh dari laporan tahunan menggunakan pendekatan content analysis, sedangkan data keuangan terkait ROA, diperoleh dari terminal Bloomberg. Selanjutnya pengujian hipotesis dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linier. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa ditemukan pengaruh positif atas pengungkapan ERM terhadap profitabilitas.
ESTIMASI CADANGAN KLAIM IBNR PADA ASURANSI KREDIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE MUNICH CHAIN LADDER DAN BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON PADA PT XYZ Suardi, Lenny
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

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AUTOMATED TELLER MACHINE (ATM) DURABILITY ANALYSIS USING SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: EVIDENCE BASE IN INDONESIA Malau, Siska F; Suardi, Lenny
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p507-517

Abstract

ANALISIS SURVIVAL TIME TO CLAIM PADA PRODUK ASURANSI JIWA BERJANGKA : STUDI KASUS PT XYZ Jati, Muthaqin Dhamar Widhoro; Suardi, Lenny
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p518-527

Abstract

This study aims to determine the duration of time to claim from policyholders of term life insurance products based on the characteristics of age, gender, marital status, premium amount, sum insured, insurance period and distribution channel using survival analysis. Survival data in this study is the policy period from the beginning of the observation period until the claim submission. By using term life insurance coverage data from 2018 to 2023 with a total of 6,070 data consisting of 632 claim data as claim occurrence data and 5,438 censored data. The method used in this study is nonparametric analysis in the form of Kaplan-Meier estimation (limit product estimation) to determine the survival probability of policyholders based on covariates that are thought to affect them. The semi-parametric analysis uses the Cox proportional hazard model to determine the relationship between the claim duration variable and the covariates in the model. The result of this study is that all covariates are significantly effect on claim duration and the best model obtained fulfil the proportional hazard assumption.Keywords: Term Life Insurance, Survival Analysis, Kaplan-Meier Estimation; Cox Proportional Hazard
PENDEKATAN SURVIVAL MODEL UNTUK MENGANALISIS KEJADIAN DEBITUR LANCAR MENJADI PRA NPL PADA SEGMEN KREDIT KECIL Nugroho, Joshua Aditia; Suardi, Lenny
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p622-627

Abstract

Salah satu indikator bagi bank untuk mengetahui kondisi penerima pinjaman gagal membayar pinjaman adalah Rasio NPL (Non Performing Loan). Bank ditempatkan dalam pengawasan intensif apabila rasio NPL netto lebih dari 5% dari total kredit yang disalurkan. Sehingga perlu adanya analisis sebagai evaluasi oleh bank untuk lebih waspada sejak dini terhadap kredit yang diberikan. Sebagai langkah antisipasi meningkatnya jumlah debitur NPL, dapat dimulai dengan menganalisis kejadian debitur dengan kondisi kredit yang lancar masuk dalam kategori Pra-NPL. Penelitian ini berfokus pada jenis kredit modal usaha dengan segmentasi kredit Kecil (SME) PT Bank XYZ Tbk. Dengan menggunakan metode Analisis Survival Non Parametrik, yaitu Kaplan Meier untuk menganalisis distribusi waktu menuju Pra-NPL, serta Model Semi Parametrik, Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox PH) untuk mendapatkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kredit kategori Lancar menjadi kategori Pra-NPL. Membandingkan model hazard yang dihasilkan oleh Model Cox PH dapat digunakan sebagai latar belakang keputusan terhadap karakteristik kredit pada segmentasi kredit ini, sehingga bank dapat memperbaiki pemilihan karakter debitur.
DAMPAK PENERAPAN REGULASI TERKAIT PAYDI TERHADAP KINERJA PERUSAHAAN ASURANSI JIWA Soegondo, Dhanawan Prasidya; Suardi, Lenny
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n3.p628-636

Abstract

Industri asuransi jiwa di Indonesia mengalami perkembangan pesat, salah satunya didorong oleh popularitas produk PAYDI. Seiring dengan pertumbuhan industri PAYDI, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) mengeluarkan Surat Edaran Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Nomor 5/SEOJK.05/2022 (SEOJK PAYDI) untuk memperkuat perlindungan konsumen dan stabilitas sistem keuangan. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak penerapan regulasi SEOJK PAYDI terhadap kinerja 53 perusahaan asuransi jiwa terbesar di Indonesia selama periode 2020-2024. Dengan menggunakan analisis panel data, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa SEOJK PAYDI memiliki dampak terhadap kinerja perusahaan asuransi jiwa. Hal ini diindikasikan dengan perubahan pada pendapatan setelah pajak, pendapatan premi, dan return on assets (ROA) pada perusahaan asuransi jiwa setelah penerapan regulasi. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi dalam memahami dampak regulasi terhadap industri asuransi jiwa di Indonesia. Temuan penelitian ini dapat membantu regulator dalam merumuskan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mendorong pertumbuhan industri asuransi jiwa yang berkelanjutan dan bermanfaat bagi konsumen.
Survival Analysis of Stroke Incidence in National Health Insurance Participants from 2015 – 2020 Ilmi, Irfan; Suardi, Lenny
InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol 7, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v7i2.49104

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the survival of stroke patients enrolled in the National Health Insurance (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional, JKN) program and factors affecting it during the 2015–2020 period. Survival analysis was utilized using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The dataset consisted of 12,773 stroke patients sampled from BPJS Kesehatan administrative records. The results indicate that since being registered as BPJS Kesehatan participants or from the baseline year 2015, stroke patients had an average survival time of 2,264 days, with a 95% confidence interval between 2,240 and 2,287 days. The Cox model revealed that patients aged 18–35, 36–50, 51–65, and >65 had Hazard Ratios (HR) of 1.30, 1.69, 2.47, and 3.52, respectively. Female patients exhibited a lower risk of death (HR = 0.81) than males. Employment segment effects were modest, and regional disparities were observed, with the Eastern region showing a higher risk (HR = 1.29). Comorbidities further increased hazards, with hypertension (HR = 1.70) and diabetes (HR = 2.17) significantly raising mortality risk. As one of the first large-scale survival analyses using JKN national data, this study offers novel evidence on key determinants of stroke outcomes in Indonesia. Its findings highlight critical risk factors and support more targeted, data-driven strategies for stroke prevention under universal health coverage.Keywords: Cox Proportional Hazard; Kaplan-Meier; National Health Insurance Agency; Stroke; Survival Analysis. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis survival pasien stroke yang terdaftar dalam program Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya selama periode 2015–2020. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis survival dengan pendekatan Kaplan-Meier dan model Cox Proportional Hazards. Data yang dianalisis diambil dari sampel BPJS Kesehatan peserta JKN selama 2015–2020, yang berjumlah 12.773 pasien. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sejak terdaftar sebagai peserta BPJS Kesehatan atau sejak tahun dasar 2015, pasien stroke memiliki waktu survival rata-rata 2.264 hari, dengan interval kepercayaan 95% antara 2.240 dan 2.287 hari. Model Cox mengungkapkan pasien berusia 18–35, 36–50, 51–65, dan >65 memiliki HR masing-masing sebesar 1,30, 1,69, 2,47, dan 3,52. Perempuan memiliki risiko lebih rendah (HR = 0,81) dibandingkan laki-laki. Efek pada segmen pekerjaan relatif kecil, dan disparitas regional teramati, dengan wilayah Timur menunjukkan risiko yang lebih tinggi (HR = 1,29). Komorbiditas semakin meningkatkan risiko, dengan hipertensi (HR = 1,70) dan diabetes (HR = 2,17) secara signifikan meningkatkan risiko mortalitas. Sebagai salah satu analisis survival skala besar pertama yang menggunakan data nasional JKN, studi ini menawarkan bukti baru tentang determinan utama luaran stroke di Indonesia. Temuannya menyoroti faktor risiko kritis dan mendukung strategi pencegahan stroke yang lebih terarah dan berbasis data dalam kerangka jaminan kesehatan semesta.Kata Kunci: Cox Proportional Hazard; Kaplan-Meier; Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional; Stroke; Analisis survival.  2020MSC: 91G05.
Co-Authors Agistia, Maulia Dita Beaty, Zuly Puspita Dwi Nastiti Danarsari Hakim, Fahmi Husodo, Zaafri Ananto Ilmi, Irfan Jati, Muthaqin Dhamar Widhoro M. Syamsudin, M. Malau, Siska F Nugroho, Joshua Aditia Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti Ririen Setiati Risca Fleureta Hudiyono Soegondo, Dhanawan Prasidya Viverita Viverita