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All Journal JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation
Miguel Botto-Tobar
(1) Eindhoven University of Technology, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands; (2) Research Group in Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, University of Guayaquil, 090510, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Other

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Forecasting the Value of Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia using ARIMA Box-Jenkins Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Miguel Botto-Tobar; Abdul Rahman; Rahmat Hidayat
JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.jinav260

Abstract

The objective of the study was to forecast the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins. With this prediction, it is hoped that it can be a study for future policy making. This oil and gas export data is obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) website, in raw data from January 2010 to March 2022. This data is predicted using the ARIMA method with the help of R software. The stages of data analysis with ARIMA include: data stationary test, build the model indication, parameter estimation and significance test, and residual diagnostic test of the model. The results of data analysis conducted in this study show that there are 3 indications of models that were generated, namely ARIMA(1,1,0); ARIMA(0,1,1); and ARIMA(1,1,0). From these 3 model indications, the best model was ARIMA(0,1,1) with AIC value of 2047.65.
The Comparison of Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Models in Predicting Passenger Car Registrations in Canada Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana; Miguel Botto-Tobar; Rahmat Hidayat
Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku2639

Abstract

This study aims to compare the two main variants of exponential smoothing methods in the context of business forecasting: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). In this study, we applied these three methods to the data on Monthly Passenger Car Registrations in Canada from 2019 to 2022. The performance of each method was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the primary metric. The analysis results showed that Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) produced the best performance with the lowest RMSE of 13.07859 for an alpha of 0.6, compared to DES, which yielded higher RMSE values. These findings indicate that although DES have the capability to handle trends and seasonality, in some cases, especially when the data has single fluctuations without significant seasonal patterns or trends, SES can provide more accurate forecasting results. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners in selecting the most appropriate forecasting method based on the characteristics of the data at hand.
Co-Authors Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Rahman, Abdul Rahmat Hidayat Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.