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ANALISIS DAYA SAING EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA DAN VIETNAM DI PASAR ASEAN 5 Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Suharno, Suharno
HABITAT Vol 26, No 3 (2015)
Publisher : Department of Social Economy, Faculty of Agriculture , University of Brawijaya

Selama 14 tahun terakhir, ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam terus mengalami pertumbuhan khususnya pada jenis kopi HS 090111 (Coffee, not roasted, not decaffeinated) ke pasar ASEAN 5. Pertumbuhan tersebut didasari pada terus meningkatnya kuantitas serta nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia dan juga Vietnam dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Diadakannya Asean Economic Community (AEC) pada awal tahun 2016 menstimulus eksportir kopi seperti Indonesia untuk tetap menjaga kuantitas ekspornya ke ASEAN 5 sehingga diperlukan sebuah analisa terkait daya saing produk kopi Indonesia di pasar ASEAN 5.Untuk mengetahui sejauh mana ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam mampu berdaya saing di pasar ASEAN 5, dilakukan analisis RCA (Revealed Comaparative Advantage) dan untuk mengetahui apakah suatu produk dalam performa yang dinamis atau tidak digunakan alat analisis EPD (Export ProductDynamics). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam di pasar ASEAN 5 memiliki daya saing dengan Indonesia memiliki nilai rata-rata RCA sebesar 10,16 dan Vietnam sebesar 53,44. Hal tersebut juga menunjukkan bahwa ekspor kopi Vietnam lebih memiliki daya saing jika dibandingkan ekspor kopi Indonesia. Sedangkan hasil analisis EPD menunjukkan bahwa perdagangan kopi Indonesia maupun Vietnam berada pada kuadran rising star yang berarti bahwa kinerja perdagangan ekspor berjalan cepat dan dinamis dimana tingkat pertumbuhan ekspor kopi Indonesia terus meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya pangsa ekspor di ASEAN 5.Pemerintah diharapkan mampu untuk meningkatkan ekspor kopi Indonesia ke pasar ASEAN 5 mengingat terus bertumbuhnya permintaan kopi dari pasar tersebut sehingga perlu diberlakukan sebuah kebijakan taktis yang mampu menstimulus para petani untuk memproduksi kopi secara lebih efisien.

DETERMINAN KINERJA INDUSTRI TPT INDONESIA Nada, Haya Marshella Lifnatin; Hermawan, Iwan; Rambe, Khoiru Rizqy; Nugraheni, Reninta Dewi; Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Isnasari, Yovita; Asshagab, Sri Milawati
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol 12 No 1 (2023): Volume 12 Nomor 1 Tahun 2023
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jep.v12i1.1483

The textile and textile product (TPT) industry is a leading industry for national economic growth. The existence of its performance relies on various factors that turn out to be vulnerable to fluctuations, including the fulfillment of raw materials in the form of cotton fiber from import dominance. Therefore, disruption of the performance of the textile industry will also stimulate disruption to Indonesia's economic growth. This study aims to analyze the determinants of the development of textile industry performance. For this reason, a quantitative approach is used with econometric models prepared based on the Cobb-Douglas theory of production functions. The model construction uses secondary time series data for the period 1992-2021 sourced from the World Bank, Bank Indonesia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The findings show that the terminology of the development of the performance of the Indonesian textile industry includes capital, labor absorption, world cotton fiber prices, inflation, textile exports, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the global food crisis in 2007/2008. Therefore, several policy recommendations were submitted to encourage more massive TPT machine restructuring programs, improve the skills of TPT human resources (HR), provide incentives for Local Ease of Export Destinations (KLTE), and re-intensify the #banggabuatanindonesia campaign.

Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Maulana, Achmad Subchiandi; Rambe, Khoiru Rizqy
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 12, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456

Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13How to Cite:Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456.

The Competitiveness and Export Performance of Indonesian Coffee in The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Asshagab, Sri Milawati; Rambe, Khoiru Rizqy; Destiarni, Resti Prastika
Integrated Journal of Business and Economics (IJBE) Vol 8, No 3 (2024): Integrated Journal of Business and Economics
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/ijbe.v8i3.939

Since its establishment in 1969, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has served as a platform for Islamic countries worldwide to cooperate in various sectors, including economic, social, and cultural. One longstanding form of economic cooperation among OIC countries is in the field of trade. Indonesia, as one of the major producers and exporters of coffee, has engaged in coffee trade with OIC countries, and this cooperation has continued to the present day. This research aims to assess the competitiveness and export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS) methods. The results show that Indonesian coffee exports to OIC are competitive but have a declining growth rate. Meanwhile, the export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC demonstrates good performance in following market distribution trends but shows shortcomings in meeting market preferences. Therefore, enhancing internal trade cooperation within OIC, partnering strategies with competing countries, and measures such as improving technology accessibility and evaluating responsive export policies are necessary.

ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE PERFORMANCE TO BRICS Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Maulana, Achmad Subchiandi; Tambarta, Emmia; Nurhayati, Nurhayati; Asshagab, Sri Milawati; Rambe, Khoiru Rizqy; Destiarni, Resti Prastika
Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Vol 9, No 1 (2025): March 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Animal and Agricultural Science, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/agrisocionomics.v9i1.23000

The BRICS alliance has become a significant player in the global economy, making it imperative for member nations to engage in strategic trade. With abundant natural resources and a thriving agriculture industry, Indonesia is well-positioned to capitalize on the trade prospects within BRICS. This study utilizes quantitative methods from secondary data. It employs analytical tools, including Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), to offer insights and evidence-based recommendations for shaping Indonesia's future trade policies on agricultural commodities within the BRICS framework. The results show that Indonesia's trade in agricultural products with the BRICS countries is positive, as it offers a high level of competitiveness during the period studied. The RCA analysis results show that Indonesian agricultural products are competitive in BRICS. This analysis also shows that India and China have the most significant impact on Indonesian agricultural trade with BRICS. Based on the EPD calculation results, Indonesian agricultural exports to BRICS countries are in the Rising Star quadrant. Based on the analysis, Indonesia's trade in agricultural products with BRICS countries shows a high level of integration with a value of 70.12, indicating significant similarities in the products exchanged.

Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model Zuhdi, Fadhlan; Maulana, Achmad Subchiandi; Rambe, Khoiru Rizqy
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456

Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13How to Cite:Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456.

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