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All Journal ASRO JOURNAL - STTAL STTAL POSTGRADUATE - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
Simon Fuad Sonda
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering Other

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HYBRID METHOD OF THE HOUSE OF RISK AND MONTE CARLO FOR PLANNING MODELS ON THE NEW CONSTRUCTION OF PROJECT X Simon Fuad Sonda; Mukhlis Mukhlis; Ahmadi Ahmadi
STTAL POSTGRADUATE - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Indonesia Naval Technology College STTAL Postgraduate International Conference -
Publisher : Indonesian Naval Technology College STTAL

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Abstract

The series of activities which include the preparation and selection of various alternatives, as well as theirimplementation, are carried out in a way and logically so that the consequences that may occur can be predictedand anticipated. In an activity, especially a project, risks are an inseparable part. HOR method is used to identify andmeasure impact risks on project X. Monte Carlo simulation is used as a simulator in estimating the completion ofa project. The simulation results on project X are known that there are 30 potential events that occur due to 29risk agents in the project. The trajectory critical of the project happens in activity A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-M-V-W-AG-AHAI-AJ-AK. Based on the simulation of the results Montecarlo with crystal ball software knew that with under risk so thesolution project became pessimistic with timely completion of 1.074 days or 351 late than the time already planned Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Forecasting, House of Risk, Monte Carlo
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE AH-140 SHIP-BUILDING PROJECT AT PT. PAL INDONESIA TO SUPPORT THE DUTIES OF THE INDONESIAN NAVY Simon Fuad Sonda; Budi Santoso; Ahmadi Ahmadi; Richard Martin
JOURNAL ASRO Vol 13 No 4 (2022): International Journal of ASRO
Publisher : Indonesian Naval Technology College - Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut - STTAL

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The AH-140 Shipbuilding project is a challenge for PT.PAL as part of the Indonesian Defense Industry Holding under PT. LEN Industry is under a situation of uncertainty, which will bring up both positive and negative risks. Negative risks that can cause project delays should be mitigated to prevent delays. This thesis has the aim of knowing the interaction between risks and obtaining mitigation recommendations for the implementation of the AH-140 Shipbuilding project. Bayesian Network is used to determine the level of project risk interaction, as well as to model scenarios by providing certainty on the risks that have an effect. AHP is used to assess the chance of occurrence at Independence risk and ANP is used to assess opportunities from Dependence risk. In the study, it was found that there were 22 risks. risk (E14) Quality of work, risk (E20) Cost overrun, and risk (E7) material shortage. The influence of risk variables that have the potential to occur in the AH-140 Shipbuilding project, causing potential delays in ship launching at a Low-risk level with actual conditions of 43%, Medium risk Level with actual conditions of 31%, and High-risk level with actual conditions of 26%. This is influenced by the risk (E14) of the quality of work, the risk (E20) of cost overrun, and the risk (E7) of material shortages. So that get some recommendations in response to risks that have the potential to occur. Keywords: Project Risk Management, Bayesian Network, AHP, ANP.
Co-Authors AHMADI Budi Santoso Mukhlis Mukhlis Richard Martin