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All Journal Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation
Rahmat Hidayat
Department of Information Technology, Politeknik Negeri Padang, Limau Manis, Padang, 25164, Indonesia
Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Other

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Journal : Quantitative Economics and Management Studies

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The Implementation of Holt-Winters Method to Forecast the Loan Interest Rate of Indonesia Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Mohd. Rizal Mohd. Isa; Rahmat Hidayat
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems2718

Abstract

This study aimed to anticipate the rupiah loan interest rates at commercial banks in Indonesia by employing the Holt-winters method. This study employs data on rupiah loan interest rates from commercial banks in Indonesia. The data comprises a time series element, with monthly intervals spanning from January 2013 to November 2015, which was obtained from the official website of BPS Indonesia. The study demonstrates that the Holt-winters technique yields the most accurate forecasts, as indicated by a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.19720630. The parameters alpha, beta, and gamma, set at 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 respectively, constitute the optimal configuration for this method. These results indicate that the Holt-winters method is an effective tool for capturing seasonality, trends, and patterns in credit interest rate data, making it a reliable choice for future loan interest rate forecasting. The findings of this study are expected to significantly contribute to strategic decision-making in the banking sector, particularly in risk management and loan interest rate strategy determination.
Co-Authors Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Angela Diaz Cadena Miguel Botto-Tobar Mohd. Rizal Mohd. Isa R. Rusli Rahman, Abdul Robbi Rahim Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.