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All Journal Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik
Anggito Abimanyu
Department Of Economics And Business, Vocational School, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system Anggito Abimanyu; Muhammad Handry Imansyah; Muhammad Adisurya Pratama
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 15 Issue 1, 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3

Abstract

Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model. Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit) Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis. Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies. Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.
The Impact of Fuel Subsidy to the Income Distribution: The Case of Indonesia Anggito Abimanyu; Muhammad Handry Imansyah
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol 8 No 3 (2023): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v8i3.932

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the potential impact of energy subsidies (fuel and liquified petroleum gas or LPG)) on income distribution in Indonesia. Indonesia suffers from the high price of crude oil resulting in an increase in fuel subsidies from imports of crude oil. The impact of fuel subsidies has the potential to favor urban and high-income groups. This form of price subsidy has a weakness because all income groups can buy subsidized fuel and LPG. Therefore, in terms of fairness, this type of subsidy is not justified. The method of measuring the effect to income groups benefited from price subsidies used in this study is Miyazawa's input-output analysis. The study finds that the lower-income groups receive less benefits than the higher-income groups, and even the top decile earns the highest income. This study provides several reform examples conducted by some developing countries in overcoming the negative impacts of fuel subsidy policies that are politically and economically relevant to the conditions in Indonesia. To reduce the negative impacts of fuel price subsidies, the study suggests several policy initiatives that need attention from the government. These include the automatic subsidy price adjustment law, implementing a sustainable fuel subsidy social program, improving data quality and implementing a separate PSO (public sector obligation) policy.
ASEAN Halal Markets Analysis: Regulatory and Harmonization Challenges Anggito Abimanyu; Ihda Arifin Faiz
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol. 11 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/grieb.2023.111-02

Abstract

This article examines important aspects of the halal market’s development, including halal food in seven advanced members of ASEAN countries. The qualitative method has been used by examining the main aspects of the regulation, a form of institutions, a SWOT analysis, a study of the impact of halal food regulations, and an analysis of ASEAN regulatory harmonization. Data on halal food regulations in ASEAN-7 countries were obtained from literature reviews, official documents, publications, interviews, and direct field observations. The study shows that halal regulations in ASEAN-7 generally are adequate for their purpose but reveal diversity in halal standards, institutional forms, internal and external environmental conditions, and their impacts. The implication shows that the ASEAN can potentially increase halal business and global halal trade. Although various efforts have been made, more synergistic cooperation is needed to develop harmonious halal trade regulations to increase economic, social, and consumer protection benefits for the ASEAN region. Originality/Value: This study investigates the existence of research gaps between empirical data and literature or theories concerning the trade in halal food products within the ASEAN region. The study on the harmonization of halal regulations in ASEAN and its relationship to trade flows has not been extensively conducted. It is hoped that this research will prove beneficial to both academic literature and the formulation of regional policies regarding the halal food trade among ASEAN countries.
Co-Authors Ihda Arifin Faiz Muhammad Adisurya Pratama Muhammad Handry Imansyah