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Prediction of Hydraulic Fractured Well Performance Using Empirical Correlation and Machine Learning Kamal Hamzah; Amega Yasutra; Dedy Irawan
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 44 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/SCOG.44.2.589

Abstract

Hydraulic fracturing has been established as one of production enhancement methods in the petroleum industry. This method is proven to increase productivity and reserves in low permeability reservoirs, while in medium permeability, it accelerates production without affecting well reserves. However, production result looks scattered and appears to have no direct correlation to individual parameters. It also tend to have a decreasing trend, hence the success ratio needs to be increased. Hydraulic fracturing in the South Sumatra area has been implemented since 2002 and there is plenty of data that can be analyzed to resolve the relationship between actual production with reservoir parameters and fracturing treatment. Empirical correlation approach and machine learning (ML) methods are both used to evaluate this relationship. Concept of Darcy's equation is utilized as basis for the empirical correlation on the actual data. The ML method is then applied to provide better predictions both for production rate and water cut. This method has also been developed to solve data limitations so that the prediction method can be used for all wells. Empirical correlation can gives an R2 of 0.67, while ML can gives a better R2 that is close to 0.80. Furthermore, this prediction method can be used for well candidate selection means.
Feasibility Study and Technical Optimization by Implementing Steam Flooding for the Field Development Plan of A Heavy-Oil Field in Yemen Mohammed Sheikh Salem Al-Attas; Amega Yasutra
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 44 No 3 (2021)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/SCOG.44.3.711

Abstract

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) applications are highly recommended and required in Yemen to maintain stable levels of oil production. The field selected for this research is located in Yemen, where relatively- thin sandstone reservoirs are dominant at moderate depths. The reservoir is highly undersaturated with an API gravity of 14.2 and a very low solution gas-oil ratio (GOR), initial oil viscosity (uo) of 420 cP. The reservoir is naturally producing with the support of a strong water drive at the bottom, however, the increase in water cut poses a disadvantage for this reservoir. Over time, the oil production will decline and development plans will be required to improve the oil recovery. This research aims to optimize oil recovery factor and the interest in the overall project economy by evaluating the optimization of the steam flood process based on the Stochastic analysis with the highest recovery factor (RF) and the highest net present value (NPV) objective functions. Two optimization techniques have been used to perform the data analysis, deterministic and stochastic approaches. The deterministic approach is carried out by direct analysis on the results of the technical optimization method using the CMG reservoir simulator, while the stochastic approach uses the simulation results from the deterministic approach to determine the most influencing parameter in the steam flood process as well as to optimize the infill and injection wells location, number of steam injection wells and the steam injection rate with the highest oil RF and highest NPV. In this field development using deterministic approach, two producer wells are converted into injector wells. The RF for this initial scenario is 52,34%, and the NPV is 33.10 MM$/STB. For the second scenario using Stochastic approach, CMOST optimization using the maximum RF objective function resulted in RF of 61.33%, and NPV of 43.00 MMS/STB. Finally for the third scenario using CMOST optimization with the maximum NPV objective function resulted in RF of 57.29%, and an NPV of 53.86 MMS/STB. The Stochastic approach with maximum NPV objective function provides the most favorable scenario to be used in the development of Field "AR". And the optimization using the stochastic approach also produces faster, optimum, and more accurate results than the deterministic approach since it forecast a variety of probable results by running thousands of reservoir simulations using many various estimations of economic conditions.
Build of Machine Learning Proxy Model for Prediction of Wax Deposition Rate in Two Phase Flow Water-Oil Jalest Septiano; Amega Yasutra; Silvya Dewi Rahmawati
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 45 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/SCOG.45.1.922

Abstract

Wax deposit is one of the major fl ow assurance experienced in the process of oil production and transportation from sub- surface to surface. Large amounts of data are required to perform modeling using existing thermodynamic models such as carbon number data from HGTC. In this paper, a machine learning algorithm using unifi ed model approach from Huang (2008). Two types of input are implemented in order to simulate infl uence of feature selection used in training and testing machine learning which are input A consists of water volume fraction (fw), shear stress (τw), effective viscosity (μe), wax concentration gradient (dC/dT), and temperature gradient (dT/dR) and input B consists of water volume fraction (fw), shear stress (τw), effective viscosity (μe), wax concentration gradient (dC/dT), temperature gradient (dT/dR), shear stripping variable (SV) dan diffusion variable (DV). The random forest with Ntree = 500 known to be the best machine learning method compared to others. Based on accuracy parameter it achieves error parameter R-squared (R2) for training, testing and total data for input A and B are 0.999, 0.992, 0.9975 and 0.999, 0.993, 0.9977, respectively.
A Case Study of Primary and Secondary Porosity Effect for Permeability Value in Carbonate Reservoir using Differential Effective Medium and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Method Reza Wardhana; Amega Yasutra; Dedy Irawan; Mochammad Wahdanadi Haidar
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 45 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/SCOG.45.1.923

Abstract

Pore system in a carbonate reservoir is very complex compared to the pore system in clastic rocks. According to measurements of the velocity propagation of sonic waves in rocks, there are three types of carbonate pore classifi cations: Interpartikel, Vugs and Crack. Due to the complexity of various pore types, errors in reservoir calculation or interpretation might occur. It was making the characterization of the carbonate reservoir more challenging. Differential Effective Medium (DEM) is an elastic modulus modeling method that considers the heterogeneity of pores in the carbonate reservoir. This method adds pore-type inclusions gradually into the host material to the desired proportion of the material. In this research, elastic modulus modeling will be carried out by taking into account the pore complexity of the carbonate reservoir. ANFIS algorithm will also be used in this study to predict the permeability value of the reservoir. Data from well logging measurements will be used as the input, and core data from laboratory will be used as train data to validate prediction results of permeability values in the well depths domain. So, permeability value and pore type variations in the well depth domain will be obtained.
Case Study of Heterogeneity Index’s Effect on The Successful Workover Based on The Apriori Algorithm Fahrizal Maulana; Amega Yasutra; Zuher Syihab
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 48 No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/scog.v48i1.1658

Abstract

The Indonesian government has set a target to reduce the consumption-production gap by increasing national oil production to 1 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and 12 billion standard cubic feet per day (BSCFD) of gas by 2030. Amongst several approaches, the optimization of mature fields offers a significant opportunity for quick production gains. However, analyzing these fields presents challenges due to the complexity, incompleteness, and poor quality of historical data. Heterogeneity Index (HI) is one of the methods that quickly measure well performance. This method is as simple as measuring a certain well as compared to the average performance at certain time. The parameter being used might vary, but production data is the most frequent one given its availability. Despite simple and practical, skepticism on the reliability of this method is still questionable. This work revisited "XYZ" field consisting of XX wells producing more than 32 years with hundreds of workovers. We brought evidences and insights on how HI leads to the workover success from. Apriori algorithm, an Association Rule Mining (ARM) technique, is employed to uncover rules from the noisy data. The results show that workover on wells with low HI mostly leads to success. Another insight is that of scale treatment is the most influential one in determining the success. Given these findings, the flow efficiency is the issue that should be well treated and HI is representative enough to measure this one.