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All Journal Scientific Journal of Informatics JURNAL REKAYASA TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Journal of Embedded Systems, Security and Intelligent Systems Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya PENGAMATAN: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat untuk Ilmu MIPA dan Terapannya
Wattimena, Emanuella M C
Universitas Pattimura
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Journal : Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal

 1 
Perbandingan Model Prediksi Frekuensi Titik Panas di Provinsi Riau dengan menggunakan LSTM Wattimena, Emanuella M C; Tilukay, Meilin Imelda
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2023): Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol4iss2pp53-62

Abstract

The high rate of deforestation in Indonesia due to forest and land fires (karhutla) is still a problem that requires the government's attention because it has become a regional and global disaster. The worst forest fire incident in Indonesia occurred in 2019, where the area of ​​the fire was 1,649,258 ha. Riau Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia that often experiences forest fires. Sipongi noted that an average of 52,986 ha of forest and land burned in Riau Province every year from 2016-2020. Thus, this study builds a predictive model for the emergence of hotspots as one of the forest fires that aims to reduce the rate of forest fires. Prediction model built using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN). The modeling is carried out using 2 data scenarios, namely multivariate data and univariate data, where multivariate data uses weather variables as predictors of hotspot frequency, and univariate data is hotspot frequency data. The data used is daily data from 2013-2020. Multivariate scenario dataset that produces RMSE of 23,323 and the correlation between actual and predicted data is 0,675554. The RMSE generated by the multivariate dataset is smaller than the RMSE generated by the model with the univariate dataset scenario, which is 25,750. However, datasets with univariate scenarios produce a larger correlation between actual and predicted values ​​when compared to multivariate dataset scenarios. The addition of weather factors as a predictor of hotspot occurrence can improve model performance, where this model is better at predicting values ​​when compared to univariate dataset scenarios even though the running time is longer. Keywords: forest and land fire, hotspots, Long Short-Term Memory, Recurrent Neural Network, prediction, time series
Optimization of LSTM Model for Rainfall Prediction in Ambon City: Comparison of Mean Imputation and Interpolation in Time Series Data Prediction Wattimena, Emanuella M. C.; Taihuttu, Pranaya D. M.; Waas, Devi V.; Palembang, Citra F; Pattiradjawane, Victor E.
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 6 No 1 (2025): Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol6iss1pp49-56

Abstract

Rainfall prediction is an essential aspect of meteorology, agriculture, and disaster management, particularly in regions like Ambon, where rainfall patterns significantly impact daily life. However, one of the major challenges in developing an accurate predictive model is handling missing values in the dataset. This study aims to optimize the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for rainfall prediction in Ambon by comparing two missing value handling techniques: mean imputation and interpolation. The dataset used in this study consists of daily rainfall data from 2021 to 2024, with approximately 26.89% missing values. Two experimental scenarios were conducted: the first using mean imputation to fill in missing values with the average rainfall, and the second using linear interpolation. Both scenarios utilized the same LSTM architecture to evaluate their impact on model performance. The evaluation metrics used in this study include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R-squared (R²). The results show that the interpolation-based model achieved a lower RMSE and a slightly higher R² value than the mean imputation-based model, indicating better predictive performance. However, both models struggled to capture extreme values, necessitating further improvements. To address this limitation, a more complex LSTM architecture was implemented in the subsequent experiments, incorporating additional layers and optimized hyperparameters. The findings suggest that choosing an appropriate missing value handling method significantly influences the predictive accuracy of LSTM models for rainfall forecasting. This research contributes to the development of more reliable weather prediction models, which can aid in agricultural planning, flood risk assessment, and climate change adaptation in Ambon.
Co-Authors Annisa Annisa Devi Valentino Waas Doms Upuy Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang L. Rahakbauw, Dorteus Meilin Imelda Tilukay Palembang, Citra F Palembang, Citra F. Palembang, Citra Fathia Pattiradjawane, Victor E. Pattiradjawane, Victor Eric Patty, Dyana Radjabaycolle, Jefri E. T. Radjabaycolle, Jefri Esna Thomas Radjawane, Jefri E. T. Saputri, Susan D. Taihuttu, Pranaya D. M. Victor Eric Pattiradjawane W.M. Patty, Henry Waas, Devi V. Waas, Devi Valentino