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All Journal Prisma Sains: Jurnal Pengkajian Ilmu dan Pembelajaran Matematika dan IPA IKIP Mataram
Marhaposan Situmorang
Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences – Universitas Sumatera Utara, Jl. Dr. T. Mansur No.9, Padang Bulan, Kec. Medan Baru, Kota Medan, Sumatera Utara
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Physics Other

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Projection of Tourist Climate Comfort Level Period 2031-2050 in Caldera Toba Geopark Alfonsius Chrisandy Pratama Siregar; Erna Frida; Marzuki Sinambela; Marhaposan Situmorang; Syahrul Humaidi; Yahya Darmawan
Prisma Sains : Jurnal Pengkajian Ilmu dan Pembelajaran Matematika dan IPA IKIP Mataram Vol 11, No 2: April 2023
Publisher : IKIP Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33394/j-ps.v11i2.7756

Abstract

Tourism is one of the economic sectors that is developing relatively rapidly and has the potential to become a source of foreign exchange due to an increase in the number of tourists. Caldera Toba Geopark is one of the UNESCO-owned Geoparks in Indonesia as a tourist destination that depends on natural potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The relationship between climate and tourism from the comfort index is needed in determining tourist comfort. Climate parameters that become the calculation of the climate comfort index such as air temperature, rainfall, wind speed, length of sunshine and cloud cover are part of the thermal, physical and aesthetic aspects of climate comfort weighting. Climate projection data in this study is the RCP 4.5 scenario with the ACCESS 1-3 model. Using the TCI and HCI methods, the results of the temporal pattern analysis on the climate comfort index for the period 2031-2050 have a 'Bimodal - Shoulder Peak' distribution pattern. Based on the results of the spatial pattern analysis, the level of tourist climate comfort for the period 2031-2050 both with TCI and HCI methods is dominated by the comfortable category index where the peak comfort occurs in December with a very comfortable category. The lowest comfort level with the TCI method occurs in June in the comfortable category, while the HCI method in July with a comfortable category. In the end, the results of this study provide recommendations for the best tourist time in the Caldera Toba Geopark from September to December. The recommended geosite locations are Simanindo - Batu Hoda and Hutatinggi - Sidihoni geosites.
Projection of Climate Change on the Probability of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in North Sumatra Province Theresia Grefyolin Simbolon; Erna Frida; Marzuki Sinambela; Marhaposan Situmorang; Syahrul Humaidi; Yahya Darmawan
Prisma Sains : Jurnal Pengkajian Ilmu dan Pembelajaran Matematika dan IPA IKIP Mataram Vol 11, No 2: April 2023
Publisher : IKIP Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33394/j-ps.v11i2.7754

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to global prosperity. The industrial revolution has occurred since 1750 to 2010 where the increase in global air temperature has reached 0.7°C. Rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall is the identification of climate change, one of the impacts of climate change is changing the distribution of some types of mosquitoes (Aedes Aegypti).Based on the results of the analysis of the main components, a good model uses an accuracy rate of about 85% and passes the test individually and as a whole. Indonesia has a tropical climate where warm temperatures and high rainfall variability are a comfortable habitat for Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. The breeding and life cycle of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito is directly influenced by climatic conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine the normal rainfall map, an overview of climate projection patterns, identification of characteristics of climate change in the short term (2011 – 2040), medium term (2041 – 2070) and long term (2071-2100) based on rainfall and temperature projections in North Sumatra province. Statistical methods used to determine the effect of climate on health (dengue) include statistical downscaling, delta bias correction, Principal Component Analysis, and ordinal logistic regression. The results of the ordinal logistic regression analysis show that rainfall that is suitable for dengue fever ranges from 100 - 300 mm. For North Sumatra rainfall ranges from 50 - 600 mm. In March and November is the strongest threat because of the peak with high rainfall intensity where the danger of flooding and dengue. The air temperature ranges from 24.5 - 28.5 oC, this condition is still optimal for the development of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. The climate change projection index for the short term (2011 - 2040), medium term (2041 - 2070) and long term (2071 - 2100) shows a consistent increase with a range of 0.40C, this value will affect the acceleration of the reproduction of the Aedes aegypti mosquito as the cause of DHF. The projection probability of dengue hemorrhagic fever shows that North Sumatra Province still has a high chance of being categorized as a high risk area for dengue fever with a probability value of 0.82 - 0.99.
Co-Authors Alfonsius Chrisandy Pratama Siregar Erna Frida Marzuki Sinambela Syahrul Humaidi, Syahrul Theresia Grefyolin Simbolon Yahya Darmawan