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Sujarwo Sujarwo
Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics, Brawijaya University
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL Sujarwo Sujarwo; Fitrotul Laili
Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal Vol. 23 No. 2 (2023): APRIL
Publisher : Socio-Economics/Agribusiness Department

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.agrise.2023.023.2.9

Abstract

Fluctuations in food prices can trigger vulnerability, disrupting people's access to food. This study aims to predict the prices of strategic food commodities: rice, corn, shallots, garlic, cayenne pepper, large chilies, chicken meat, chicken eggs, beef, cooking oil, and granulated sugar at the wholesaler level in the district. Poor. The research method used is the ARMA-GARCH forecasting method. Price forecasting carried out on all strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a fluctuating pattern with a tendency for price increases, with an average change increasing gradually in each period. The causality relationship in various markets about price changes in strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a unidirectional and two-way causality pattern.
Co-Authors Fitrotul Laili