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All Journal GEOGRAPHIA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Penelitian Geografi
Yosafat Donni Haryanto
Program Studi Meteorologi Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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Optimalisasi Model ARIMA dalam Prakiraan Curah Hujan di Jambi Alya Claudina Anggun Nandarie; Abdul Aziz Al Badri; Yosafat Donni Haryanto
GEOGRAPHIA : Jurnal Pendidikan dan Penelitian Geografi Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Juni
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan Geografi Universitas Negeri Manado

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53682/gjppg.v4i1.5776

Abstract

Process determine predicted monthly rainfall values for 2022, this study models rainfall forecasts. Observations of monthly rainfall over 30 years (1992–2022) were used to collect the data. The data is then analyzed using the Minitab application's ARIMA model to examine historical trends. For each model utilized, the forecast results are connected with the actual observation data in 2022. The model (1,0,1), (1,0,1) is used to calculate the difference to acquire a result of 54%, which is the best correlation value. The most accurate model for predicting monthly rainfall in Jambi is this one.
Validasi Data Model Prediksi Curah Hujan Satelit GPM, GSMaP, dan CHIRPS Selama Periode Siklon Tropis Seroja 2021 di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Achmed Gerland; Aprilliani Ersa S Dengo; Yosafat Donni Haryanto
GEOGRAPHIA : Jurnal Pendidikan dan Penelitian Geografi Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Juni
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan Geografi Universitas Negeri Manado

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53682/gjppg.v4i1.5778

Abstract

Rainfall is also one of the meteorological parameters that are very influential in life. Measurements of this rainfall can also vary both from direct observations and remote sensing results from satellites. But often, data from satellites is not accurate for the conditions that occur in an area. The purpose of this study is to test the accuracy of product data from various GPM, GSMaP, and CHIRPS satellites with observational data using the Seroja tropical cyclone case study that will occur in 2021 in East Nusa Tenggara Province. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be seen that there are variations in various assessments, including RMSE, correlation, and contingency table analysis. In terms of correlation, it shows that the lowest correlation is in the Ruteng area based on data from the GSMaP satellite, and the highest correlation is in the Larantuka area based on data from the GSMaP satellite. Meanwhile, the satellite data that has the smallest error value is from the CHIRPS satellite data in the Maumere area.
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Al Badri Achmed Gerland Alya Claudina Anggun Nandarie Aprilliani Ersa S Dengo