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All Journal JIMFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi) Inkubis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Glosains: Jurnal Sains Global Indonesia
Irvan Novikri
IPB University
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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IDENTIFICATION OF MARKET VOLATILITY WITH SOLID VAR AUTOREGRESSION VALIDITY IN INDONESIA CRYPTOCURRENCIES OR GOLD Vera Mita Nia; Ossi Ferli; Irvan Novikri; Roy Sembel; Adler Haymans Manurung
JIMFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi) Vol 9, No 1 (2023): Vol 9, No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Pakuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34203/jimfe.v9i1.6146

Abstract

ABSTRACTIncreasing market capitalization is characterized by high volatility but doesn’t have the ability and potential for monetary function, Crypto world eventually shifted into the most attractive investment in the digital economy. Numerous published studies have required some improvement in the consistent relationship between commodities and financial assets and the authors proposed an alternative assessment with demonstrating the relationship between the trading volume activity of the most traded cryptocurrency in Indonesia (i.e., Ethereum) and other investment assets in Indonesia such as market indexes, rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, and gold, and related to cryptocurrencies in Indonesia which observed in over the last three years. A Var model as a quantitative and statistical approach introduced and tested the stationary data with significancy value to identify the level of acceptance model. Consistency results from previous studies where Ethereum has the largest average return but higher risk and Gold as safer investment, ultimately diversification of the investment portfolio is suggested considering the degree of risk aversion.ABSTRAKKapitalisasi pasar yang meningkat ditandai dengan volatilitas yang tinggi namun tidak memiliki kemampuan dan potensi fungsi moneter, dunia Crypto akhirnya bergeser menjadi investasi paling menarik di ekonomi digital. Sejumlah penelitian yang diterbitkan memerlukan beberapa perbaikan dalam hubungan yang konsisten antara komoditas dan aset keuangan dan penulis mengusulkan penilaian alternatif dengan menunjukkan hubungan antara aktivitas volume perdagangan mata uang kripto yang paling banyak diperdagangkan di Indonesia (yaitu, Ethereum) dan aset investasi lainnya di Indonesia seperti indeks pasar, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar, dan emas, serta terkait cryptocurrency di Indonesia yang diamati selama tiga tahun terakhir. Model Var sebagai pendekatan kuantitatif dan statistik memperkenalkan dan menguji data stasioner dengan nilai signifikansi untuk mengidentifikasi tingkat penerimaan model. Hasil konsistensi dari studi sebelumnya di mana Ethereum memiliki pengembalian rata-rata terbesar tetapi risiko lebih tinggi dan Emas sebagai investasi yang lebih aman, pada akhirnya diversifikasi portofolio investasi disarankan dengan mempertimbangkan tingkat penghindaran risiko.
A Certainty Equivalent Framework for Analyzing Risk Preferences in Organizational and Personal Decision-Making Irvan Novikri; Noer Azam Achsani; Roy H.M. Sembel; Tony Irawan; Tubagus Haryono
Glosains: Jurnal Sains Global Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 3 (2026): Glosains: Jurnal Sains Global Indonesia
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Agama Islam Kuningan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59784/glosains.v7i3.781

Abstract

Background: Decision-making under uncertainty remains a critical challenge in both organizational and personal contexts. Misunderstanding the differences between uncertainty, variability, ambiguity, and risk often leads to inaccurate risk assessments and biased decisions. Objective: This study examines risk attitudes and their influence on decision-making by clarifying conceptual distinctions among uncertainty-related conditions and evaluating their implications for effective risk management. Methods: This study applies a systematic literature review by synthesizing foundational and contemporary studies on decision analysis and risk attitudes. The analysis employs the Certainty Equivalent (CE) framework to classify risk preferences and examines the influence of cognitive biases on decision quality. Results: The findings indicate that the CE framework effectively differentiates risk-neutral, risk-averse, and risk-seeking behaviors based on preferences toward uncertain outcomes. Comparative analysis shows that excessive risk aversion or risk-seeking behavior can reduce long-term financial outcomes, while organizational incentive structures may encourage risk preferences that conflict with optimal strategies. Conclusion: This study concludes that aligning individual and organizational risk attitudes is essential for improving decision quality. The Certainty Equivalent framework provides a practical approach for diagnosing and calibrating risk preferences, while future research should validate the framework through empirical studies across diverse industries.
Study on the Application of Markowitz’s Portfolio Selection Theory in Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Decision Irvan Novikri; Noer Azam Achsani; Roy H.M. Sembel; Tony Irawan; Tubagus Haryono
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.276

Abstract

Background: … Objective: Modern portfolio theory aims to maximize investment returns while managing the amount of risk taken, represented by variance, across different investment options. By regularly monitoring and adjusting their portfolio, investors can better align their investments with their specific financial goals and objectives. This theory emphasizes the importance of both selecting diverse investments and understanding the risks involved to achieve the best possible financial outcomes. Methods: The basic idea of portfolio theory is that the overall risk of a group of investments (or portfolio) depends on not just the risk of each individual investment but also how those investments interact with each other, known as their covariance or correlation. Having a mix of different risky assets can help manage risk because while some investments may increase in value, others might decrease, balancing out the overall effect. This process of combining different assets is called diversification, and it helps reduce the chance of significant losses in the portfolio. Results: Understanding the relationships between different investment projects can create additional benefits in managing risk. For example, if two projects are negatively correlated, meaning that when one succeeds, the other tends to fail, this can help reduce the chance of losing money on both projects at the same time. If projects are independent, diversifying investments can spread risk effectively, but if they are negatively correlated, it provides an even better safety net, potentially lowering the risk of total loss to almost nothing. Conclusion: To estimate how much the returns of assets in a portfolio might vary, portfolio managers look at the past performance of those assets since future performance is uncertain and cannot be predicted. The goal of diversifying a portfolio is to manage risk and build wealth over time, so understanding how assets behaved in different conditions helps in making informed investment decisions. This historical data serves as a useful guide to assess potential future variability and manage the risks associated with investments.
Co-Authors Adler Haymans Manurung Erliza Noor Ferli, Ossi Roy H.M. Sembel Roy Sembel Tony Irawan Tubagus Haryono Vera Mita Nia