Articles
<![CDATA[INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ]]>
<![CDATA[Irawan, Tony]]>;
<![CDATA[Hartono, Djoni]]>;
<![CDATA[Irawan, Ferry]]>;
<![CDATA[Yusuf, Arief Anshory]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 27, No 3 (2012): September ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business ]]>
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<![CDATA[Indonesian government shows their big commitment on the improvement of infrastructure which is reflected in some regulations and policies made. It is supported by many empirical evidences that show the importance of infrastructure improvement on the economic performance. This paper developed a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)model to analyze the impacts of infrastructure on the Indonesian economy by introducing several types of infrastructure and discussing the impacts of it on the poverty level. The results suggest that improvement on any types of infrastructure is expected to increase the economic growth, raise the government revenue, raise the factorsâ income and reduce the poverty level. Improvement on the public work of agriculture, land transportation and telecommunication are still being preferable options comparing to others. Interestingly, even though the public work of agriculture is usually located in rural areas, the model suggests that the improvement on this sector will result higher impact on the urban household rather than to the rural household.Keywords: infrastructure, CGE, policy, poverty.]]>
<![CDATA[Optimum Portfolio Analysis of Black-Litterman Model in The Indonesian Stock Exchange on Consumer Goods Industrial Sector ]]>
<![CDATA[Pudjiani, Meilina]]>;
<![CDATA[Syaukat, Yusman]]>;
<![CDATA[Irawan, Tony]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal the Winners: Economics, Business, Management, and Information System Journal Vol 21, No 1 (2020): The Winners (In Press) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Bina Nusantara University ]]>
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DOI: 10.21512/tw.v21i1.5954
<![CDATA[The purpose of this research was to identify the allocation of optimum portfolio formation in consumer goods sector at Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018 by using Black-Litterman model. This quantitative research used secondary data on stock prices of the consumer goods sector on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from January 2014 to December 2018 which was obtained from Yahoo Finance and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Four stocks formed the optimum portfolio of consumer goods sector identified by using Black-Litterman model. Those are stocks of PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk, PT Kimia Farma Tbk, PT Indofarma Tbk, PT Indofarma Tbk, and PT HM Sampoerna Tbk. The results show that stock with the biggest proportion was ICBP’s with proportion of 68,5379%. Meanwhile the smallest proportion was INAF’s, which is 3,0277%. The mean return was calculated from this proportion, resulting in 3,678% while the risk value was 1,471%.]]>
<![CDATA[STRUCTURAL BREAKS DAN KETIDAKSTABILAN PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Deviyantini Deviyantini]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 6 No 2 (2017): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.6.2.2017.47-60
<![CDATA[This research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The results show that the money demand function (M1 dan M2) is not cointegrated (unstable) and the source of the instability is exchange rate variable. Keywords: Stability money demand, Structural breaks, Time varying parameter model]]>
<![CDATA[Causality Analysis of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Debby Anggraeni]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 7 No 1 (2018): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.7.1.2018.60-77
<![CDATA[This study aims to investigate the relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation in Indonesia both in general and for each group of commodity, and to identify whether PPI inflation can be a leading indicator for CPI inflation or vice versa. This study employs Granger causality based on VAR model for monthly data series from January 2010 until August 2016. The results show that there are unidirectional relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation generally, bidirectional relationship from PPI inflation to CPI inflation for foodstuffs group, unidirectional from CPI inflation to PPI inflation for clothing group, and no causality between PPI inflation and CPI inflation for processed food, beverage, cigarette, and tobacco group.Keywords: Granger causality, producer price index, consumer price index, VAR JEL classification: E31, C22]]>
<![CDATA[Identification of Premature Deindustrialization and Its Acceleration in Indonesia (Period 1986-2015) ]]>
<![CDATA[Vina Eka Andriyani]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 7 No 1 (2018): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.7.1.2018.78-101
<![CDATA[The increase of the manufacturing's share in GDP has reached its peak in the early 2000s while the growth rate of the manufacturing employment is relatively low. Both facts demonstrate that the process of industrialization has slowed down and an indication of deindustrialization in Indonesia. Deindustrialization that occurs in the countries with low GDP per capita is called premature deindustrialization. This study measures the rate of deindustrialization and identification of premature deindustrialization on period 1986- 2015. The result shows that the speed of deindustrialization varies between indicators and between islands. Descriptive analysis showed indication of premature deindustrialization in Indonesia. Keywords: Deindustrialization, Premature deindustrialization, Manufacturing, Indonesia JEL classification: L16, L50, L52, L60, O14, O25]]>
<![CDATA[THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN INCOME AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION: A PANEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH ]]>
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 4 No. 2 (2007): Vol. 4 No. 2 Oktober 2007 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB) ]]>
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DOI: 10.17358/jma.4.2.81-90
<![CDATA[Hubungan sebab-akibat antara pemakaian energi dan pemasukan (produk domestik kotor) telah menjadi isu yang sangat penting di bidang ekonomi. Banyak penelitian yang telah dilakukan dan hasilnya beragam dan berlawanan. Dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan sebab-akibat yang jelas antara kedua variabel tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan investigasi ulang hubungan sebab-akibat tersebut dengan mengaplikasikan metode panel vector autoregressive kepada data dari enam negara terpadat populasinya di dunia. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menggunakan impulse response function dan variance decomposition. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa adanya hubungan sebab-akibat tidak langsung dari pemakaian energi ke pemasukan. Goncangan pemakaian energi mempunyai efek yang positif dan dapat menjelaskan kira-kira 18,7 persen varian pemasukan.]]>
<![CDATA[KAJIAN PENERAPAN MARKET TIMING DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Salman Fajri]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>;
<![CDATA[Trias Andati]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Vol 19 No 1 (2019): Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Telkom University. ]]>
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DOI: 10.25124/jmi.v19i1.1983
<![CDATA[This study is intended to discuss about implementation of market timing as an investment alternative strategic in Indonesian Stock Market. Market timing is procedure for changing portfolio asset allocation to deal with changes in business cycle. The market timing indicator used in this study is interest rate of Bank Indonesia. The active portfolio consists of IHSG and bond for simple rotation strategy. Sector rotation strategy consist of cyclical and non cyclical sector index. The dissecting cycle analyse by two methods, Hamilton Filter and indicator change assumptions. The secondary data used in this study have a span of time from January 2005 – December 2017. The result showed that active strategies produced better performance than passive strategy, and sector rotation were the best performance among other alternative strategies. Optimal performance of simple rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ± 25 bps (basis point) and optimal performance of sector rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ± 100 bps (basis point). Keywords—Hamilton Filter; Market Timing; Sector Rotation; Simple Rotation. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membahas tentang penerapan market timing sebagai tindakan strategi investasi aktif di pasar modal Indonesia. Market timing merupakan prosedur perubahan alokasi aset portfolio untuk menghadapi perubahan siklus bisnis di suatu negara. Indikator market timing yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia. Portfolio aktif terdiri dari IHSG dan obligasi untuk strategi aktif rotasi sederhana dan indeks sektor siklikal dan non siklikal untuk rotasi sektoral. Pemilahan siklus dilakukan dengan dua metode yaitu Hamilton Filter dan asumsi perubahan variabel indikator. Seluruh data sekunder yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini memiliki rentang waktu dari Januari 2005-Desember 2017. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi aktif menghasilkan kinerja lebih baik relatif terhadap strategi pasif, dan strategi rotasi sektoral secara keseluruhan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan alternatif strategi lain. Strategi rotasi sederhana optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ± 25 bps (basis point) dan strategi rotasi sektoral optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ± 100 bps (basis point). Kata kunci— Hamilton Filter, Market Timing, Rotasi Sederhana, Rotasi Sektoral]]>
<![CDATA[THE STUDY OF MARKET TIMING IMPLEMENTATION IN INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET ]]>
<![CDATA[Salman Fajri]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>;
<![CDATA[Trias Andati]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Vol 19 No 2 (2019): Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Telkom University. ]]>
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DOI: 10.25124/jmi.v19i2.1641
<![CDATA[This study is intended to discuss about implementation of market timing as an investment alternative strategic in Indonesian Stock Market. Market timing is procedure for changing portfolio asset allocation to deal with changes in business cycle. The market timing indicator used in this study is interest rate of Bank Indonesia. The active portfolio consist of IHSG and bond for simple rotation strategy. Sector rotation strategy consist of cyclical and non cyclical sector index. The dissecting cycle analyse by two methods, Hamilton Filter and indicator change assumptions. The secondary data used in this study have a span of time from January 2005 - December 2017. The result showed that active strategies produced better performance than passive strategy, and sector rotation were the best performance among other alternative strategies. Optimal performance of simple rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ±2% and optimal performance of sector rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ±4%. Keywords—Hamilton Filter; Market Timing; Sector Rotation; Simple Rotation AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk membahas tentang penerapan market timing sebagai tindakan strategi investasi aktif di pasar modal Indonesia. Market timing merupakan prosedur perubahan alokasi aset portfolio untuk menghadapi perubahan siklus bisnis di suatu negara. Indikator market timing yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia. Portfolio aktif terdiri dari IHSG dan obligasi untuk strategi aktif rotasi sederhana dan indeks sektor siklikal dan non siklikal untuk rotasi sektoral. Pemilahan siklus dilakukan dengan dua metode yaitu Hamilton Filter dan asumsi perubahan variabel indikator. Seluruh data sekunder yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini memiliki rentang waktu dari Januari 2005 - Desember 2017. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi aktif menghasilkan kinerja lebih baik relatif terhadap strategi pasif, dan strategi rotasi sektoral secara keseluruhan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan alternatif strategi lain. Strategi rotasi sederhana optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ±25 bps (basis point) dan strategi rotasi sektoral optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ±100 bps (basis point). Kata kunci— Hamilton Filter, Market Timing, Rotasi Sederhana, Rotasi Sektoral]]>
<![CDATA[The Determinant of Regional Unemployment in Indonesia: The Spatial Durbin Models ]]>
<![CDATA[Eka Khaerandy Oktafianto]]>;
<![CDATA[Noer Azam Achsani]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 8, No 2 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta ]]>
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DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v8i2.10124
<![CDATA[Unemployment is a problem that occurs in many countries and often gets special attention both from policymakers and academics. This fact is because if not addressed, it will cause socio-economic problems in the country. Therefore it is necessary to formulate the causes of unemployment by involving spatial aspects to avoid biased and inefficient estimates. This study aims to find the determinants of unemployment rates in Indonesia, including calculating the direct and indirect effect of using the spatial Durbin models (SDM) in the period 2000-2017. The results of this study indicate that the overall independent variables used significantly influence the unemployment rate in Indonesia. Besides, it turns out that the higher education variable completed by the population of a region has the most significant impact both in decreasing unemployment in a region and neighboring regions. Therefore, the policy taken should pay attention to this.]]>
<![CDATA[Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan Dan Makroekonomi Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Industri Konsumsi ]]>
<![CDATA[Nur Muflihatun Azizah]]>;
<![CDATA[Lukytawati Anggraeni]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi Vol. 25 No. 2 (2020): July 2020 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Fakultas Ekonom dan Bisnis, Universitas Tarumanagara ]]>
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DOI: 10.24912/je.v25i2.682
<![CDATA[The stock price can be affected by financial performance and macroeconomic. Investors need to consider financial performance and macroeconomic conditions in making an investment decision. The goal of this study is to analyze the effect of financial performance and macroeconomics on the stock price of the consumer goods industry. Panel Data Regression is used in this study to analyze the effect of financial performance and macroeconomic on the stock price. The result of this study shows the liquidity ratio (CR) has a significant and negative effect on stock price, while the profitability ratio (ROE) has a significant and positive effect on the stock price. Macroeconomic inflation and exchange rate have a significant and positive effect on the stock price. Firms with a high liquidity ratio (CR) have to control the liquidity ratio because in the long term high liquidity has a negative effect on stock price so the stock price may decrease. Investors need to compare the financial performance in order to make a good decision.]]>
