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Journal : Advance Sustainable Science, Engineering and Technology (ASSET)

Multi-Horizon Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Linear Neural Network Henri Tantyoko; Satriawan Rasyid Purnama; Etna Vianita
Advance Sustainable Science Engineering and Technology Vol. 7 No. 3 (2025): May - July
Publisher : Science and Technology Research Centre Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/asset.v7i3.2033

Abstract

Short-Term Load Forecasting is crucial for grid stability and real-time energy management, particularly in residential settings where consumption is highly volatile and influenced by behavioral and external factors. Traditional models struggle to capture complex, non-linear patterns. This study proposes a forecasting framework based on the DLinear model, which decomposes time series data into trend and seasonal components using a simple linear neural network architecture. Designed for multi-horizon forecasting, the model predicts electricity demand across several future time points simultaneously. Experimental results show that DLinear performs best at a 24-hour prediction length, achieving the lowest MSE of 41.58 and MAE of 5.11, indicating improved accuracy with longer horizons. These results confirm DLinear’s robustness and efficiency in modeling dynamic residential electricity consumption patterns.
Utilizing Sequential Pattern Mining and Complex Network Analysis for Enhanced Earthquake Prediction Henri Tantyoko; Nurjanah, Dade; Rusmawati, Yanti
Advance Sustainable Science Engineering and Technology Vol. 6 No. 4 (2024): August-October
Publisher : Science and Technology Research Centre Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/asset.v6i4.1003

Abstract

Earthquakes are natural events caused by the movement of the earth's plates, often triggered by the energy release from hot liquid magma. Predicting earthquakes is crucial for raising public awareness and preparedness in seismically active areas. This study aims to predict earthquake activity by identifying patterns in seismic events using Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM). To enhance the prediction accuracy, Sequential Rule Mining (SRM) is applied to derive rules with confidence values from these patterns. The results show that using betweenness centrality as a weight increases the prediction accuracy to 83.940%, compared to 78.625% without weights. Using eigenvector centrality as a weight yields an accuracy of 83.605%. These findings highlight the potential of using centrality measures to improve earthquake prediction systems, offering valuable insights for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation.