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All Journal JSI: Jurnal Sistem Informasi (E-Journal) International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research of Higher Education (IJMURHICA)
Ivonne Ayesha
Universitas Muhammadiyah Bandung, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Social Sciences Other

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SOUVENIR SALES FORECASTING ANALYSIS USING SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT APPROACH (CASE STUDY: SOUVENIR ORCHID SHOP) Syarifuddin Syarifuddin; Nursalim Nursalim; Ivonne Ayesha; Eva Desembrianita
Jurnal Sistem Informasi Vol 15, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36706/jsi.v15i2.22294

Abstract

Orchid Souvenir Shop is a business that provides various types of souvenirs and handicraft items. The purpose of the study is to forecast the stock of wedding souvenir products by empirically testing the facts or elements of the existence of supply chain management by analyzing industrial processes. Demand management activities need to be supported by the administration's systematic and easy demand forecasting process so that fast and accurate information can be obtained to support the MTO-based decision-making process (make-to-order). The demand forecasting method can reduce the risk of product obsolescence and unmet consumer needs and solve material supply problems. Decisions in supply chain management aim to reduce waste and optimize value for all components in the supply chain. Demand forecasting uses time series analysis with moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend projection methods. To measure the accuracy of forecasting results, analysis using MSE, MAD, and MAPE is used.
System Dynamics Modeling of Sustainability, Animal Welfare, and Certification in the Luwak Coffee Industry Pramadya Ramdhana; Ivonne Ayesha
International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research of Higher Education Vol 9 No 1 (2026): (January) Theme Education, Religion Studies, Social Sciences, STEM and Economic D
Publisher : Islamic Studies and Development Center in Collaboration With Students' Research Center Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ijmurhica.v9i1.426

Abstract

Luwak coffee, globally recognized yet ethically contested, represents one of Indonesia’s most distinctive and high-value commodities. Despite its reputation, production remains small-scale and constrained by sustainability challenges, animal welfare concerns, and supply chain inefficiencies. This study aims to analyze the structure and behavior of the civet coffee production system using a system dynamics approach. Causal loop diagrams and stock–flow models were constructed to simulate policy scenarios across population dynamics, animal health, coffee cherry availability, certification, and market reputation. The results indicate that civet population growth is positively influenced by improved health and reduced mortality, while stress levels decline under enhanced welfare practices. Certification and reputation emerge as reinforcing drivers of market acceptance but remain highly vulnerable to negative publicity regarding animal welfare. Scenario analysis demonstrates that sustainable habitat management, investment in certification, and ethical compliance not only strengthen green bean stocks but also enhance long-term production resilience. Conversely, stagnant sales trends highlight that production capacity alone is insufficient without consumer trust and reputational legitimacy. These findings imply that integrating welfare-based management, ecological sustainability, and certification-driven reputation building is essential to ensure the long-term viability and competitiveness of the civet coffee industry.
Co-Authors Eva Desembrianita Nursalim Pramadya Ramdhana Syarifuddin Syarifuddin