Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Journal of Applied Economics in Developing Countries Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono
Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Published : 2 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search

 1 
Pandemic shocks and time-varying weak-form efficiency in ASEAN foreign exchange markets: An empirical investigation Saizal Pinjaman; Sook Ching Kok; Sarma Aralas; Agus Tri Basuki; Syamsul Hadi; Pazri Nugraha; Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15560

Abstract

This study examines the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the selected ASEAN exchange rates—Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) over three distinct phases: pre-COVID-19 (2010–2019), during COVID-19 (2020–2021), and post-COVID-19 (2022–2023). Using monthly nominal exchange-rate data from the World Bank and applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the study evaluates whether these exchange rates exhibit random-walk behavior consistent with weak-form efficiency. The results reveal that all ASEAN currencies were I(1) and efficient before the pandemic, supporting the weak-form EMH. However, efficiency deteriorated during COVID-19, particularly for Malaysia and Singapore, where exchange rates became stationary at level, indicating short-term predictability due to policy interventions and market disruptions. In the post-pandemic period, Malaysia and Singapore regained efficiency, while Indonesia and Thailand exhibited partial mean-reverting tendencies, reflecting gradual market normalization. Descriptive statistics further confirm increased volatility during the pandemic and partial stabilization thereafter. Overall, the findings suggest that ASEAN exchange-rate efficiency is time-varying, resilient under stable conditions but vulnerable during systemic shocks. Policy recommendations include enhancing monetary transparency, promoting flexible exchange-rate management, and strengthening regional financial coordination to sustain efficiency during future crises.
MEASURING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURIST DEMAND (CASE STUDY OF INDONESIA) Faiza Husnayeni Nahar; Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani; Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono; Delsa Irmasari
Journal of Applied Economics in Developing Countries Vol 5, No 1 (2020): Journal of Applied Economics in Developing Countries
Publisher : MESP–FEB UNS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/jaedc.v5i1.42427

Abstract

This paper tries to investigate whether there is a relationship between international trade and international tourist arrivals in Indonesia using panel data. For measuring the consistency of the variables, the authors used three models such as Pooled Least Squared (PLS), Fixed Effect, and Random Effect. Using 34 countries of origin from 2006-2016. As the control variables, tourist arrivals in the previous year, GDP, population of origin country, visa-free policy, price ratio, and distance were used in helping to build the model. The results showed that there is a positive correlation between International trade and international tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals in the previous year, GDP of origin country, population of origin country, and visa-free policy have a positive correlation for international tourist arrivals. While distance, and price ratio have a negative significant correlation. These results can be supportive of government strategies that aim to enhance the country’s trade value as well as stimulate Indonesia’s international tourism demand. Keywords: International Tourism Demand, International Trade, Panel Data, Indonesia
Co-Authors Agus Tri Basuki Delsa Irmasari Faiza Husnayeni Nahar Pazri Nugraha Saizal Pinjaman Sarma Aralas Sook Ching Kok Syamsul Hadi