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PENERAPAN METODE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELLING-PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES (SEM-PLS) DALAM MENGEVALUASI FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PDRB DI INDONESIA Muhammad Nusrang; Muh. Fahmuddin; Hardianti Hafid
SEMINAR NASIONAL DIES NATALIS 62 Vol. 1 (2023): Prosiding Seminar Nasional UNM ke-62 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Makassar

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Abstract

Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a multivariate statistical analysis method that combines regression analysis with factor analysis. SEM can be used to describe simultaneous linear relationships between observed variables (indicators) and variables that cannot be directly measured (latent variables). In the development of covariance-based SEM, there are still weaknesses based on parametric assumptions that must be met in regression analysis, and one of the classic assumptions that must be met is the assumption that the data is normally distributed. Partial Least Square (PLS) is one solution or alternative method of model estimation to manage SEM modeling with reflective or formative indicators. PLS was created to overcome the limitations of the SEM method. Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) is a powerful analysis method because it allows structural equation modeling with the assumption that the data used does not have to be normally distributed, SEM-PLS can use a relatively small sample size, and the indicators used are reflective, formative, or a combination of both. This study aims to determine the effect of latent variable indicators, namely public service expenditure, economy, health, and education on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in each district/city in South Sulawesi Province in 2022. The indicators used for each latent variable are Public services (employee expenditure, goods and services expenditure, capital expenditure, other expenditure), Economy (goods and services expenditure, capital expenditure), Health (employee expenditure, goods and services expenditure, capital expenditure), Education (employee expenditure, goods and services expenditure, capital expenditure, other expenditure). The results of the study show that the other expenditure indicator on the latent variable of public services and the other expenditure indicator on the latent variable of Education are excluded in the study because they do not pass the loading factor test. The model equation obtained is GRDP = 0.052 Economy - 0.087 Health + 0.321 Education + 0.706 Public Services. The R2 value obtained from the model equation is 0.982, which means that the latent variables of public service expenditure, economy, health, and education can explain the latent variable of GRDP by 98.2%. The latent variables that significantly influence the model equation are public service expenditure and education.
Comparison of Holt’s Exponenetial Smoothing and GARCH Models In Forecasting BNI Bank Stock Isma Muthahharah; Muhammad Fahmuddin; Muhammad Nusrang
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/a76hfv58

Abstract

This study aims to compare the forecasting performance of Holt’s Exponential Smoothing and the ARIMA–ARCH/GARCH models in predicting the stock return volatility of Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI). Accurate forecasting of financial time series is essential for investors, policymakers, and market analysts, particularly in emerging markets such as Indonesia, where volatility levels tend to fluctuate due to global and domestic economic conditions. The data used in this study consist of weekly closing prices of BNI stock from January 2020 to August 2025, which were transformed into weekly stock returns. The analysis began with descriptive statistics to examine the trend and volatility behavior of the return series. Holt’s Exponential Smoothing was employed to capture the level and trend components of the data. Meanwhile, the ARIMA–ARCH/GARCH modelling approach was applied to address conditional heteroskedasticity and volatility clustering, which are typical features of financial return data. Model diagnostics, including parameter significance, stationarity tests, and white-noise assessments, were conducted to ensure the suitability of the models. The forecasting accuracy of both models was evaluated using RMSE criteria. The results indicate that the ARIMA ([4],0,0)–ARCH (2) model provides the most accurate predictions, reflected by its lower RMSE value compared to Holt’s Exponential Smoothing. This finding demonstrates that volatility-sensitive models outperform trend-based smoothing methods when applied to financial data characterized by fluctuating variance. Overall, this study highlights the importance of selecting forecasting methods that align with the statistical behavior of financial time series. The findings offer valuable insights for investors, financial analysts, and economic policymakers seeking to improve forecasting accuracy and strengthen risk management strategies in dynamic market environments.