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Regresi Data Panel dalam Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi IPM di Kalimantan Barat Neva Satyahadewi; Siti Aprizkiyandari; Risky Oprasianti
Statistika Vol. 23 No. 2 (2023): Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/statistika.v23i2.2201

Abstract

ABSTRAK Analisis regresi data panel digunakan untuk meneliti data di Kalimantan Barat meliputi kabupaten/kotanya dari tahun 2017 sampai tahun 2021 yaitu Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) dan faktor pengaruhnya. Tingkat penduduk miskin (), kepadatan penduduk (), tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja (), angka harapan hidup (), rata-rata lama sekolah () dan IPM () merupakan variabel yang digunakan. Analisis regresi yang menggabungkan data silang dan deret waktu merupakan regresi panel. Dalam pengestimasiannya ada tiga pendekatan yakni Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), dan Random Effect Model (REM). Uji Chow, Uji Hausman, dan Uji LM dilakukan untuk mendapatkan model terbaik. Estimasi pendekatan model regresi panel terbaik adalah model FEM atau Fixed Effect Model. Variabel angka harapan hidup () dan rata-rata lama sekolah () secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap IPM (). ABSTRACT Panel data regression analysis is used to see the Human Development Index (HDI) data and what factors affect it in West Kalimantan from 2017 to 2021.The level of poverty (), population density (), labor force participation rate (), life expectancy (), average years of schooling () and HDI () are the variables used. Regression analysis that combines cross-sectional and time series data is panel regression. In its estimation, there are three approaches, namely the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM). Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test were carried out to the best. This study found that the best panel regression model approach estimation is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Life expectancy variable () and average years of schooling () significantly affect HDI ().
STOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING THE HYBRID ARIMA-GARCH MODEL Risky Oprasianti; Dadan Kusnandar; Wirda Andani
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i2.17162

Abstract

In the current era, many people have made investments, namely capital investment activities within a certain period to seek and get profits. One of the most popular investment instruments in the capital market is stocks, which consist of conventional stocks and Islamic stocks. Conventional stocks are shares traded on the stock market without adhering to Sharia principles. In contrast, Sharia-compliant stocks meet Islamic principles and are traded in the sharia capital market. One form of development of the Islamic capital market in Indonesia is the existence of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), which projects the movement of all Islamic stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Stock prices change every day so modeling is needed that can be used by investors to determine decisions. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is one of the forecasting models that is applicable. Stock prices have volatility that tends to be high, this results in variance that is not constant or there is a heteroscedasticity problem, at the same time the ARIMA model must fulfill the assumption of homoscedasticity. Therefore, it is necessary to combine the ARIMA model with a model that can overcome the problem of heteroscedasticity, namely the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. This research aims to get the best hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model that will be used to forecast the stock price of the ISSI. The daily closing data of the ISSI stock price from May 4, 2020, to January 13, 2023, is the data that was used. The study’s findings suggest that ARIMA (0,1,3)-GARCH (2,0) is the best model among all possible models for ISSI stock price forecasting. By evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the forecasting result for ISSI stock prices using the best model, ARIMA(0,1,3)-GARCH(2,0) at 0,6092%, shows a forecasting that is close to the actual data, which means that the model used is highly effective at forecasting stock priced