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All Journal JOURNAL AGRIBUSINESS JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) Sharia Agribusiness Journal
Rizki Adi Puspita Sari
UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences Transportation

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Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Produksi dan Konsumsi Bawang Putih di Indonesia May Sarah; Rizki Adi Puspita Sari; Dewi Rohma Wati
Sharia Agribusiness Journal Vol 3, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/saj.v3i2.35816

Abstract

Currently, 80% of the national garlic demand is filled by imports. The aims of this research are: 1) To analyze the forecasting/ projection of garlic production in 2023-2032; 2) Analyze forecasting/projection of garlic consumption in Indonesia in 2022-2032. The type of data used in this research is secondary data which is quantitative. The quantitative data used is time-series data from 1996-2022 for garlic production and data from 1996-2020 for garlic consumption in Indonesia. The forecasting method used in this study is the ARIMA method and the Trend Analysis method. The results of this study indicate that forecasting garlic production in Indonesia during the 2023-2032 period tends to decrease with an average growth in forecasting the amount of Indonesian garlic consumption during the 2022-2031 period of -5.48% per year. Forecasting of garlic consumption in Indonesia during the 2022-2031 period tends to increase with an average growth in forecasting the amount of Indonesian garlic consumption of 1.69% per year. Keywords: forecasting; garlic production; consumption; ARIMA; Trend Analysis   ABSTRAK Pemenuhan kebutuhan bawang putih nasional untuk saat ini sebesar 80% berasal dari impor. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah: 1) Menganalisis peramalan/proyeksi jumlah produksi bawang putih tahun 2023-2032; 2) Menganalisis peramalan/proyeksi jumlah konsumsi bawang putih di Indonesia tahun 2022-2032. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data sekunder yang bersifat kuantitatif. Data kuantitatif yang digunakan yaitu data time-series dari tahun 1996-2022 untuk produksi bawang putih dan data tahun 1996-2020 untuk konsumsi bawang putih di Indonesia. Metode peramalan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode ARIMA dan metode Proyeksi Trend. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa peramalan produksi bawang putih di Indonesia selama periode 2023-2032 cenderung mengalami penurunan dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan pada peramalan jumlah konsumsi bawang putih Indonesia selama periode 2022-2031 adalah sebesar -5,48% per tahun. Peramalan konsumsi bawang putih di Indonesia selama periode 2022-2031 cenderung mengalami peningkatan dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan pada peramalan jumlah konsumsi bawang putih Indonesia adalah sebesar 1,69% per tahun. Kata Kunci: peramalan; produksi bawang putih; konsumsi; ARIMA; Analisis Tren 
Usaha Budidaya Rumput Odot (Pennisetum Purpureum CV. Mott) Siti Rochaeni; Lilis Putri Nuraeni; Rizki Adi Puspita Sari
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol 7, No 4 (2023)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jepa.2023.007.04.18

Abstract

Green fodder is the main food source needed for ruminants. One type of fodder that can be selected as an alternative is dwarf elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mott). The need for dwarf elephant grass is a business opportunity in utilizing existing land to run the dwarf elephant grass cultivation business because grass feed is always needed fresh and in large quantities. The aims of this study were (1) to analyze the structure of the costs incurred in the dwarf elephant grass cultivation business, (2) to analyze the income of the dwarf elephant grass cultivation business, and (3) to analyze the financial from the dwarf elephant grass cultivation business. The data source uses primary data obtained by direct observation and interviews with company owners and managers. Secondary data obtained from the company's financial data and other data derived from the literature. The results of the study show that (1) the largest variable expenditure component in running an dwarf elephant grass cultivation business is labor costs and the smallest cost component is land and building tax (PBB). (2) the business income of dwarf elephant grass cultivation for a year is profitable. (3) The financial analysis indicates that the business will experience a return on capital for 6 months.
THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE, NATIONAL CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC PRICES, PRODUCTION, CULTIVATED LAND AREA, AND IMPORT TARIFFS ON INDONESIA’S SOYBEAN IMPORT VOLUME Nadindra Suci Melati; Elpawati; Rizki Adi Puspita Sari
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v20i1.49426

Abstract

Indonesia imports more than 1.5 million tons of soybeans annually from various countries, from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Malaysia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar (exchange rate), domestic soybean consumption, domestic soybean prices, domestic production, soybean planting area, and import duty tariff policies on the volume of soybean imports in Indonesia in the period 2012-2022.The data were obtained from Central Statistics Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Trade, Bank Indonesia, and UN Comtrade through documentation and literature studies. Data were analyzed descriptively and quantitatively with multiple regression tests, and classical assumption tests were also carried out to ensure the regression model met the criteria for normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. The regression results show that the rupiah exchange rate has a negative coefficient, but is not significant (p-value 0.0912 > 0.05). Domestic consumption also has no significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.5651 > 0.05), although it has a positive coefficient. Domestic soybean prices have a negative and significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.0322 < 0.05), meaning that an increase in domestic soybean prices will reduce imports. Domestic soybean production and soybean planted area also have a negative and significant effect on soybean import volume (p-value 0.0030 and 0.0171 < 0.05). Import duty tariff policies show a positive and significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.0041 < 0.05), where a decrease in import duty tariffs increases soybean imports. Overall, these factors explain approximately 51.6% of the variation in soybean import volume in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Dewi Rohma Wati Elpawati Lilis Putri Nuraeni May Sarah Nadindra Suci Melati Siti Rochaeni