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Elpawati
UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE, NATIONAL CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC PRICES, PRODUCTION, CULTIVATED LAND AREA, AND IMPORT TARIFFS ON INDONESIA’S SOYBEAN IMPORT VOLUME Nadindra Suci Melati; Elpawati; Rizki Adi Puspita Sari
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v20i1.49426

Abstract

Indonesia imports more than 1.5 million tons of soybeans annually from various countries, from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Malaysia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar (exchange rate), domestic soybean consumption, domestic soybean prices, domestic production, soybean planting area, and import duty tariff policies on the volume of soybean imports in Indonesia in the period 2012-2022.The data were obtained from Central Statistics Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Trade, Bank Indonesia, and UN Comtrade through documentation and literature studies. Data were analyzed descriptively and quantitatively with multiple regression tests, and classical assumption tests were also carried out to ensure the regression model met the criteria for normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. The regression results show that the rupiah exchange rate has a negative coefficient, but is not significant (p-value 0.0912 > 0.05). Domestic consumption also has no significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.5651 > 0.05), although it has a positive coefficient. Domestic soybean prices have a negative and significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.0322 < 0.05), meaning that an increase in domestic soybean prices will reduce imports. Domestic soybean production and soybean planted area also have a negative and significant effect on soybean import volume (p-value 0.0030 and 0.0171 < 0.05). Import duty tariff policies show a positive and significant effect on soybean imports (p-value 0.0041 < 0.05), where a decrease in import duty tariffs increases soybean imports. Overall, these factors explain approximately 51.6% of the variation in soybean import volume in Indonesia.
POTENTIALS AND STRATEGIES OF INDONESIAN FRUIT EXPORTS TO THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Elpawati; Zulmaneri; Fajar Widyaharsanto
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v20i1.50102

Abstract

Indonesia has significant potential in tropical fruit production; however, its export performance in non-traditional markets, especially to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), remains suboptimal. This study analyzes the potential and development strategies for Indonesian fruit exports to the UAE by examining competitiveness, trade dynamics, and key economic determinants. The research utilizes secondary data from 2019 to 2024 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency / Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the United Nations (UN) Comtrade Database, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The study employs SWOT analysis, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and the Gravity Model. The results indicate that although national production is substantial, the RCA index remains below 1, reflecting a weak comparative advantage compared to other competitor countries. The Gravity Model confirms that UAE GDP positively influences export volume, whereas geographical distance acts as a significant barrier. This study recommends strengthening quality standardization, especially for compliance with sanitary and halal requirements, optimizing logistics to reduce costs, and implementing premium product differentiation strategies to enhance competitiveness in the UAE market.
THE IMPACT OF EGYPT’S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) ON THE VOLUME OF INDONESIA’S COFFEE EXPORTS (25-Year Data) Elpawati; Zulmaneri; Muhammad Rifky Zulfikar
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v20i1.50103

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of Egypt’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP, USD) on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Egypt (kg) (Harmonized System Code: 090111) over the period 2000–2024 using a simple regression method. The analysis is conducted based on the prediction that there is a relationship between two quantitative variables (GDP → export volume). The quality of the regression equation is assessed using the coefficient of determination, where , which measures the proportion of variability explained by the regression model. The results show that GDP has a positive and statistically significant effect on coffee exports (t = 9.49, p = 0,00000000202), with an  Value of 0.796, and the F-test result was statistically significant (p < 0.001). These findings indicate that Egypt’s GDP has a statistically significant simultaneous effect on the volume of coffee exports (ceteris paribus). The R-squared value of 0.797 indicates that 79.7% of the variation in coffee export volume can be explained by Egypt’s GDP, while the remaining 20.3% is influenced by other factors outside the model.
STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING OF COCOA EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA (2015–2024) Nurulita Islami Hasibuan; Elpawati; Lebba
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 19 No. 2 (2025): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v19i2.49052

Abstract

Cocoa is a strategic commodity that contributes significantly to Indonesia’s agricultural export performance. However, its export performance has fluctuated due to global price dynamics, exchange rate volatility, and variations in export volume. This study analyzes Indonesia’s cocoa export performance from 2015 to 2024 using Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS). The secondary data include export volume, export value, average export price, and the rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. The SEM-PLS results indicate that export volume has a strong and significant positive effect on export value (β = 0.64, p = 0.000), demonstrating that increases in export quantity play a major role in enhancing Indonesia’s cocoa export performance. Export price shows a positive but marginal effect (β = 0.28, p = 0.056), suggesting that price movements contribute to export value but are not statistically significant at the 5% level. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on export value (β = −0.47, p = 0.001), indicating that rupiah depreciation tends to suppress cocoa export performance. The model explains 74.2% of the variance in export value (R² = 0.742), reflecting strong predictive capability. These findings provide an empirical basis for formulating data-driven strategies to strengthen Indonesia’s cocoa export performance through improvements in production capacity, pricing strategies, and exchange rate stability.
DETERMINANTS OF INDONESIA'S CINNAMON EXPORT PERFORMANCE: A SEM–PLS ANALYSIS Elpawati; Dita Milih Anggraeni
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol. 19 No. 2 (2025): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v19i2.49698

Abstract

 Indonesia is the world's largest cinnamon exporter by volume, but still lags behind Sri Lanka in terms of export value. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon exports in the 2014-2024 period.. Using UN Comtrade data and the SEM-PLS approach, this study identified four main constructs: Product Innovation, Product Quality, Cost Efficiency, and Export Competitiveness. The results show that Product Innovation has a significant effect on Product Quality (β=0.742, p<0.001), which in turn affects Export Competitiveness (β=0.658, p<0.001). Cost Efficiency is also proven to have a significant effect on Export Competitiveness (β=0.284, p<0.05). The model is able to explain 67.3% of the variance in Indonesian cinnamon Export Competitiveness.  
Co-Authors Dita Milih Anggraeni Fajar Widyaharsanto Lebba Muhammad Rifky Zulfikar Nadindra Suci Melati Nurulita Islami Hasibuan Rizki Adi Puspita Sari Zulmaneri