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All Journal Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi
Linda Putri Nadia
Universitas Muria Kudus
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Do Geopolitical Risk and Economic Uncertainty Harm Bank Credit ? Evidence From the Indonesian Bank Linda Putri Nadia; Krisnanda Krisnanda; Wahidatun Nailis Sa'adah; Rozaq Muhammad Yasin
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) Edisi April 2024
Publisher : Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jrie.v4i1.121

Abstract

This study examines how economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks affect credit growth. It analyzes data from 47 Indonesian banks from 2008 to 2022.  The study employs purposive sampling to select 47 Indonesian banks based on loan and financial data availability, resulting in 456 observation data. Economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk significantly reduce overall bank credit growth. Further investigation into different proxies of independent variables derived from various regression model specifications has a robust result indicating the negative impact on credit growth. The analysis highlights that lagged economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk values continue to impact current credit growth dynamics, emphasizing their persistent effects. Robustness tests further support these findings, confirming the negative impact of lagged economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on credit growth. Based on the results, the study contributes to the literature on the effects of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on credit growth, supporting the real options theory and the precautionary motive hypothesis. It offers key policy recommendations: reduce economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk, monitor and manage their persistent impacts, strengthen financial system resilience through robust regulation, and promote sustainable economic growth via infrastructure investment, innovation, and structural reforms.
Co-Authors Krisnanda Krisnanda Wahidatun Nailis Sa'adah Yasin, Rozaq Muhammad