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Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Produksi Padi Provinsi Aceh Nurviana; Nirmala Sari; Ulya Nabilla
JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Vol. 20 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/2540766X.2023.v20.i2.16609

Abstract

The agricultural sector has a very significant contribution to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG's) and is also the second largest contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Aceh's agricultural sector excels in various commodities such as rice, corn, soybeans, and chili. One of the main commodities in Aceh's agricultural sector is rice. Rice is a staple food commodity for the Indonesian people whose needs continue to increase along with the increase in population and also as a source of income for the farming community in meeting their needs. The volume of rice production from year to year fluctuates greatly, experiencing a decrease or increase. the realization of the rice harvest from January to December 2022 amounted to 271.75 thousand hectares, or decreased by around 25.31 thousand hectares (8.52 percent) compared to 2021 which reached 297.06 thousand hectares. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that affect the volume of rice production in Aceh Province. The results of the study obtained a regression model Y = 556505,224 + 3,081 X1-1376,14 X2 + 139,57 X3 + 92,797 X4-1,019 X5. The results of the simultaneous test show that the harvest area, rainfall, irrigation area, seed use, and labor together or simultaneously have a significant effect on rice production at a significance level of 0.05. Partially, the variable that has a positive and significant effect on rice production is the variable of harvest area. In addition, the variable area of irrigation and the use of seeds also have a positive effect on rice production but not significant. Meanwhile, the variables of average rainfall and labor have a negative effect on rice paddy production.
PERBANDINGAN MODEL MALTHUS DAN POPULASI LOGISTIK PADA JUMLAH EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT DI PT PELINDO MULTI TERMINAL BRANCH BELAWAN Tiara, Mutiara; Ulya Nabilla
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 2 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i2.10085

Abstract

Indonesia adalah salah satu negara penghasil minyak kelapa sawit. Dengan meningkatnya permintaan pasar terhadap minyak kelapa sawit tentu harus diimbangi dengan produksi dalam negeri. PT Pelindo Multi Terminal merupakan salah satu Badan Usaha Milik Negara Indonesia yang memiliki komoditas ekspor unggulan yaitu minyak kelapa sawit, bungkil sawit, dan karet. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbandingan hasil perkiraan jumlah ekspor minyak kelapa sawit di PT Pelindo Multi Terminal Branch Belawan tahun 2019-2023 dengan menggunakan model Malthus dan Populasi Logistik. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari PT Pelindo Multi Terminal Branch Belawan dari tahun 2019-2023. Data Jumlah ekspor minyak kelapa sawit di PT Pelindo Multi terminal mengalami kenaikan setiap tahunnya. Berdasarkan hasil perkiraan dengan model Malthus terdapat MAPE 5,46% dan model Populasi Logistik memiliki MAPE 2,81%. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa model Populasi Logistik merupakan model terbaik yang dapat digunakan dalam memperkirakan jumlah ekspor minyak kelapa sawit di PT Pelindo Multi Terminal Branch Belawan dikarenakan memiliki total MAPE yang lebih rendah. Pada tahun 2024 diperoleh hasil peramalan jumlah ekspor minyak kelapa sawit di PT Pelindo Multi Terminal Branch Belawan Menggunakan model Populasi Logistik sebesar 282.850 ton.