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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM)
Abidemi, Afeez
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Deterministic Double Dose Vaccination Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics - Optimal Control Strategies with Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Abidemi, Afeez; Fatmawati; Peter, Olumuyiwa James
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2024.7.1.1

Abstract

In this study, we propose a deterministic double dose vaccination model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics optimal control with cost-effectiveness analysis. It is imperative for decision-makers and the government to prioritize the application of preventive and control measures for COVID-19 based on efficiency and costbenefit analysis. This is pivotal in resource-constrained regions where the disease is endemic. Thus, this work is mainly devoted with the development and analysis of an optimal control for COVID-19 dynamics with five timevarying functions; first dose vaccination, second dose vaccination, personal protection, testing or screening, and treatment. The model is qualitatively analysed with the overall goal to minimize the spread of COVID-19 and the costs related to control implementation with the aid of optimal control theory. The effect of adopting each control intervention in each of the three distinct groups which are created by classifying all conceivable combinations of at least three control interventions is demonstrated through the numerical simulations of the optimality system. Using the average cost-effectiveness ratio and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio techniques, the most economical control intervention is determined for each group. The study reveals that when the resources are readily available, application of the strategy that combines optimal first dose vaccination, personal protection, screening or testing and treatment is as efficient as implementing all the five optimal control interventions simultaneously as they both avert the same number of infections. However, in resource-limited communities when joint implementation of only three interventions is possible, the strategy combining personal protection, testing or screening and treatment is strongly recommended. Out of all the intervention options being considered, this strategy is also affirmed to be the most cost-effective overall. Economic evaluation of the control intervention strategies further suggests that combination of first dose vaccination, second dose vaccination, testing or screening and treatment is the most cost-effective strategy when implementation of only four interventions is strictly allowed.
A Non-linear Fractional Model for Analyzing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Indonesia Akanni, John Olajide; Abidemi, Afeez; Fatmawati, Fatmawati; Chukwu, Chidozie Williams
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 6, Issue 2: June 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjbm.v6i2.30383

Abstract

COVID-19, yang disebabkan oleh virus corona baru SARS-CoV-2, masih menjadi tantangan kesehatan masyarakat global. Studi ini mengusulkan dan menganalisis model matematika untuk memantau perkembangan COVID-19 dan menilai dampak upaya imunisasi. Model tersebut menggabungkan faktor-faktor epidemiologi utama dan dikalibrasi menggunakan data yang tersedia untuk umum tentang kasus harian kumulatif COVID-19 di Indonesia, yang berlangsung dari 1 Juli 2021 hingga 21 Juli 2022. Angka reproduksi dasar, , diturunkan dan keadaan ekuilibrium ditetapkan. Analisis bifurkasi dilakukan menggunakan Teorema Manifold Pusat untuk memahami potensi dinamika transisi penyakit. Analisis sensitivitas lokal mengungkapkan bahwa tingkat penularan efektif (), tingkat kematian alami (), tingkat vaksinasi () dan tingkat pengobatan untuk individu bergejala () adalah parameter yang paling berpengaruh. Simulasi model menunjukkan bahwa mengurangi penularan, meningkatkan pengobatan, dan meningkatkan penyerapan vaksin secara signifikan mengurangi beban penyakit. Untuk lebih menangkap efek memori yang melekat dalam penularan penyakit, model diperluas ke kerangka turunan Caputo orde fraksional. Keberadaan, keunikan, dan stabilitas model fraksional ditetapkan melalui teori titik tetap. Hasil numerik menunjukkan bahwa penurunan dalam orde fraksional sedikit menggeser dinamika, yang menunjukkan perubahan perilaku dalam menanggapi wabah sebelumnya. Temuan ini memberikan informasi berharga tentang strategi pengendalian penyakit dan menyoroti pentingnya langkah-langkah kesehatan masyarakat yang berkelanjutan.
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF SMOKING BEHAVIOR: TREATMENT AND PREVENTION OPTIMAL CONTROL Noersena, Ananda; Fatmawati, Fatmawati; Alfiniyah, Cicik; Abidemi, Afeez
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 3 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss3pp2003-2016

Abstract

Smoking remains a critical global public health challenge, with both traditional tobacco use and the rising prevalence of e-cigarettes contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. This study introduces a novel mathematical model that captures the dynamics of smoking behavior by explicitly integrating two smoker populations: traditional tobacco users and e-cigarette users. The model incorporates optimal control strategies aimed at prevention, via public health campaigns, and cessation, through smoking cessation treatments. The smoking model without control has two basic reproduction numbers for tobacco smokers and e-cigarette smokers, and . The extinction smoker’s equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if and . The extinction tobacco smokers equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if and . The endemic equilibrium tends to be asymptotically stable whenever and . Simulations demonstrate that implementing control strategies significantly reduces smoking prevalence, with the combined two strategies achieving the most substantial reduction.
Co-Authors Akanni, John Olajide Alfiniyah, Cicik Chukwu, Chidozie Williams Fatmawati Fatmawati Fatmawati, Fatmawati Noersena, Ananda Peter, Olumuyiwa James