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All Journal SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA)
Isnaini, Mardatunnisa
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology

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Analisis Dampak Covid-19 Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia Aswi; Zulhijrah; Isnaini, Mardatunnisa; Sri Sulastri
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 11 No 2 (2023): VOLUME 11 NO 2 TAHUN 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v11i2.40304

Abstract

Penyebaran corona virus diseases 19 (Covid-19) telah meluas ke seluruh penjuru dunia dan membawa dampak terhadap pendidikan, pariwisata maupun ekonomi. Inflasi adalah salah satu dampak pandemi COVID-19 terhadap kondisi makro Indonesia. Penelitian tentang dampak Covid-19 terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia telah dilakukan, tetapi hasilnya tidak konsisten. Analisis yang mengaitkan antara Covid-19 dan tingkat inflasi di Indonesia menggunakan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) belum dilakukan. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model ARIMAX terbaik dan menentukan apakah terdapat hubungan antara kasus Covid-19 dengan tingkat inflasi di Indonesia. Data inflasi bulanan dan data rata-rata Covid-19 bulanan (Maret 2020-September 2022) di Indonesia digunakan pada studi ini. Data Inflasi dituliskan sebagai variabel Zt yakni variabel independen yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik dan data Covid-19 sebagai peubah Xt yang merupakan variabel independen yang diperoleh dari situs resmi Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil analisis data, disimpulkan bahwa model ARIMA terbaik adalah ARIMA (0, 1, [6]). Dari hasil estimasi model ARIMAX diperoleh bahwa dampak Covid-19 terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan.
Time Series Intervention Analysis With Gradual Impact Function A Case Study Of Railway Passenger Volume In Java Island Zulhijrah, Zulhijrah; Isnaini, Mardatunnisa; Angraini, Yenni; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142774742025

Abstract

Java Island has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in March 2020. This study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the volume of railway passengers’ volume with a time series approach using an interventional ARIMA model. The data used is the number of monthly passengers from 2015 to 2024. Initial modeling on data before the pandemic produced the best model, namely ARIMA (0,2,1). To measure the impact of the pandemic, a gradual step intervention function is used which represents the gradual effect of the event. The estimation results show that the ARIMA (0,2,1) model with a gradual step intervention function is able to provide more accurate forecasting results, with a MAPE value of 18.39%. This model effectively captures changes in mobility patterns due to the pandemic, especially in the post-intervention recovery phase. The findings make an important contribution to transportation policy evaluation and future strategic planningKeywords: Time Series, ARIMA  Intervention, Gradual Function, Railway 
Co-Authors AA Sudharmawan, AA Aswi, Aswi Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul Yenni Angraini Zulhijrah Zulhijrah, Zulhijrah