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All Journal Jurnal Varian Journal of Mathematics UNP
Jannah, Ro'i Khatul
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Peramalan Harga Emas di Kota Padang Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) jannah, Ro'i khatul; Agustina, Dina
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17028

Abstract

Gold is often chosen as an investment because of its profit potential. To maximize returns and avoid losses, it is important for investors to understand the volatile movement of gold prices. This research aims to forecast gold prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. ARIMA is an effective method for stationary and non-stationary data, with p, d, and q parameters representing the main components: Autoregressive, differencing, and Moving Average. From this research, the best model ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was obtained. The forecasting results show that the price of gold in January 2024 is Rp990,324.8 and February 2024 is Rp997,035.8, which shows an increase in price with the accuracy of the model using MAPE of 6.72%, meaning that the model is in a very good category according to the MAPE <10% criteria.
Analysis of Gold Price Forecasts Using Automatic Clustering Method and Fuzzy Logic Relationship Jannah, Ro'i Khatul; Agustina, Dina
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4382

Abstract

Gold is often chosen as an investment due to its lucrative potential. To maximize profits and avoid losses, investors need to understand the volatile price movements of gold. This research aims to forecast the price of gold in the next period. In this research, the forecasting method used is Automatic Clustering and Fuzzy Logical Relationship (ACFLR). ACFLR is a method that uses the concept of fuzzy logic for modeling time series data. The forecasting process includes data sorting, cluster formation, interval determination, fuzzification, FLR and FLRG formation, and calculation of forecasting values. Based on this method, the result of the gold price forecast in Padang City for the next period, namely January 2024 using the ACFLR method is IDR 978,796.9. with a MAPE value of 0.9%, which means this method is very good. For further researchers, it is hoped that the Fuzzy Time Series method can use other forecasting models in order to obtain the most optimal method for forecasting gold prices.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Dina Agustina Hidayah, Iqwa Khilmatul Muhamad Imaduddin Putri, Rifa Salvia Sofii, Abdul Johan