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All Journal Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Zona Manajerial: Program Studi Manajemen (S1) Universitas Batam
Pratama, Bagus Putra
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Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Physics Social Sciences

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Perbandingan Model ARIMA dan Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Harga Emas Indonesia 2025 Wibowo, Afina Zahrah Ananda; Pratama, Bagus Putra; Aulia, Miranda; Kartiasih, Fitri
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Volume 7, Nomor 2, 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v7i2.4934

Abstract

Perkembangan ekonomi dan pola pikir masyarakat telah menjadikan investasi sebagai salah satu usaha untuk mempersiapkan perekonomian di masa depan. Investasi emas merupakan salah satu alternatif investasi yang sederhana. Ketika nilai dolar turun, harga emas cenderung akan meningkat sehingga di tengah ketidakstabilan ekonomi global permintaan emas akan naik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan model ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dan Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing untuk peramalan harga emas Indonesia 2025. Data yang digunakan merupakan harga beli emas di Indonesia dari periode 1 Januari 2024 hingga 31 Desember 2024. Setelah dilakukan perbandingan, nilai Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing memiliki nilai RMSE, MAE, dan MAPE yang lebih kecil dari Model ARIMA (0,1,3) sehingga model tersebut memiliki akurasi peramalan yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan model ARIMA.
Pengaruh Motivasi, Disiplin Kerja dan Kompensasi Terhadap Kinerja Pegawai Pada Badan Perencanaan Penelitian dan Pengembangan (Baperlitbang) Kabupaten Karimun Janitra, Muhammad Calvin; Pratama, Bagus Putra
Zona Manajerial: Program Studi Manajemen (S1) Vol 12 No 2 (2022): Zona Manajerial: Program Studi Manajemen
Publisher : Universitas Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37776/manajer.v12i2.1251

Abstract

This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of motivation, work discipline and compensation on employee performance at the Research and Development Planning Agency (Baperlitbang) Karimun Regency. Data was collected through questionnaires distributed to 40 employees at the Research and Development Planning Agency (Baperlitbang) Karimun Regency. The analysis in this study uses the SPSS version 24 program. The data testing technique used is validation test and reliability test with Cronbach Alpha. Classical assumption tests and multiple regression analyses were conducted to test and prove the research hypothesis. The results of the analysis prove that the influence of motivation (X1) has a negative effect on employee performance with a t-count of -0,692 and a insignificant value of 0.493 greater than 0.05. There is a positive and significant effect between work discipline (X2) on employee performance with a t value of 7.784 and a significance value of 0.000, which is smaller than 0.05. There is a positive and insignificant effect on compensation (X3) on employee performance with a t-count value of 0.301 and an insignificant value of 0.765 greater than 0.05. Simultaneously the influence of motivation, work discipline and compensation have a positive and significant effect on employee performance with a calculated F value of 54.625 and a significance value of 0.000 less than 0.05. It can be concluded that motivation has no positive and insignificant effect on employee performance, work discipline has a positive and significant effect on employee performance, and compensation has a positive and insignificant effect on employee performance. Taken together, the effect of motivation, work discipline and compensation has a positive and significant effect on employee performance. From the results of the analysis, it can be seen that employee performance is influenced by the influence of motivation, work discipline and compensation of 0.820 (82,0%), while the remaining 18% is influenced by other factors not examined in this study.
Co-Authors Aulia, Miranda Fitri Kartiasih Janitra, Muhammad Calvin Wibowo, Afina Zahrah Ananda