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All Journal Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Amaliyatul Hasanah
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Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences

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Prediksi Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Sumenep Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Amaliyatul Hasanah
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 1 No. 4 (2023): Agustus : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v1i4.136

Abstract

Rice is a source of carbohydrates which is the staple food of Indonesian people. The increase in human population means that Indonesia has to import rice from abroad to meet national food needs. Domestic rice production is not the same every year and with the conversion of agricultural land into industrial and residential areas, rice productivity has decreased. Sumenep Regency is one of the rice food production areas which is not the same every year, so forecasting is necessary to predict rice production in Sumenep Regency. Rice production forecasting can be used as a reference for increasing rice production in Sumenep district. The method used to forecast rice production in Sumenep district is the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The data used is rice production data in Sumenep district in 2005-2022. The results of forecasting rice production in Sumenep district obtained forecasts for rice production in 2023 of 203132.55 tonnes with a MAPE value of 11.243% with α=0.3.
Perbandingan Metode Single Moving Average dan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Kabupaten Sumenep Amaliyatul Hasanah; Prasanti Mia Purnama; Istianah Alifia
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): Februari : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v2i1.661

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) can be defined as a comparative measurement of life expectancy, education, and living standards. HDI can fluctuate, among other things, because it is influenced by external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the districts that was affected in such a way that caused the HDI to decline was Sumenep district. In relation to HDI fluctuations, the single moving average and single exponential smoothing forecasting methods were implemented in this research to predict the HDI in Sumenep district in 2024. Next, the results obtained from the two methods were compared. In HDI forecasting using the single moving average method, the forecast value was 68.81 with an MSE value of 1.87, MAPE 1.379%, MAD 0.886 and MSD 0.824. Meanwhile, forecasting using the single exponential smoothing method produces a forecasting value of 68.93 with α=1.895) and a MAPE value of 0.739%, MAD 0.464 and MSD 0.272.
Co-Authors Istianah Alifia Prasanti Mia Purnama