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All Journal Justek : Jurnal Sains Dan Teknologi Jurdimas (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Royal Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika E-Jurnal Matematika Alpha Epsilon Journal of Mathematics
Amaliyatul Hasanah
Universitas Annuqayah
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences

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Prediksi Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Sumenep Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Amaliyatul Hasanah
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 1 No. 4 (2023): Agustus : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v1i4.136

Abstract

Rice is a source of carbohydrates which is the staple food of Indonesian people. The increase in human population means that Indonesia has to import rice from abroad to meet national food needs. Domestic rice production is not the same every year and with the conversion of agricultural land into industrial and residential areas, rice productivity has decreased. Sumenep Regency is one of the rice food production areas which is not the same every year, so forecasting is necessary to predict rice production in Sumenep Regency. Rice production forecasting can be used as a reference for increasing rice production in Sumenep district. The method used to forecast rice production in Sumenep district is the Single Exponential Smoothing method. The data used is rice production data in Sumenep district in 2005-2022. The results of forecasting rice production in Sumenep district obtained forecasts for rice production in 2023 of 203132.55 tonnes with a MAPE value of 11.243% with α=0.3.
Perbandingan Metode Single Moving Average dan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Kabupaten Sumenep Amaliyatul Hasanah; Prasanti Mia Purnama; Istianah Alifia
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): Februari : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v2i1.661

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) can be defined as a comparative measurement of life expectancy, education, and living standards. HDI can fluctuate, among other things, because it is influenced by external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the districts that was affected in such a way that caused the HDI to decline was Sumenep district. In relation to HDI fluctuations, the single moving average and single exponential smoothing forecasting methods were implemented in this research to predict the HDI in Sumenep district in 2024. Next, the results obtained from the two methods were compared. In HDI forecasting using the single moving average method, the forecast value was 68.81 with an MSE value of 1.87, MAPE 1.379%, MAD 0.886 and MSD 0.824. Meanwhile, forecasting using the single exponential smoothing method produces a forecasting value of 68.93 with α=1.895) and a MAPE value of 0.739%, MAD 0.464 and MSD 0.272.
Dampak Pertumbuhan Industri Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) di Kabupaten Pamekasan dengan Metode Regresi Linear Sederhana Lailatus Shobibatir Rohmah; Amaliyatul Hasanah
Alpha-Epsilon: Journal of Mathematics Vol 2 No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Scince, Universitas Annuqayah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59005/aejm.v2i1.792

Abstract

Pengangguran merupakan salah satu permasalahan utama yang dihadapi oleh banyak daerah di Jawa Timur , termasuk Kabupaten Pamekasan. Di kabupaten pamekasan pertumbuhan industri menjadi salah satu faktor yang dapat mengurangi tingkat pengangguran terbuka karena dapat menyerpa tenaga kerja. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana hubungan antara pertumbuhan industri terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten pamekasan. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah pertumbuhan industri dan tingkat pengangguran terbuka pada tahun 2013 – 2023. Penelitian ini menggunakan regresi linear sederhana untuk mengatahui sejauh mana hubungan antara pertumbuhan industri terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT) di kabupaten Pamekasan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan industri berpanguruh negatif terhadap tingkat pengangguran artinya apabila pertumbuhan industri meningkat maka akan terjadi penurunan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka begitupun sebaliknya.
Peramalan Peramalan Persentase Penduduk Miskin (PPM) Di Kabupaten Pamekasan Menggunakan Model Statistik Time Series Dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA): Peramalan Persentase Penduduk Miskin (PPM) Di Kabupaten Pamekasan Menggunakan Model Statistik Time Series Dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Nurul Jannah; Amaliyatul Hasanah
Alpha-Epsilon: Journal of Mathematics Vol 1 No 2 (2025): July
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Scince, Universitas Annuqayah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Kemiskinan merupakan salah satu masalah yang kompleks di Indonesia termasuk di kabupaten Pamekasan, karena tingkat kemiskinan akan mempengaruhi salah satu indikator keberhasilan suatu negara. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi persentase penduduk di kabupaten Pamekasan pada 3 tahun mendatang. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series persentase penduduk miskin di kabupaten Pamekasan dari tahun 2010 sampai tahun 2024. Model ARIMA yang digunakan adalah ARIMA (0,3,1) yang dipilih berdasarkan kriteria RMSE, MAE, dan MAPE. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa model ARIMA dapat memprediksi persentase penduduk miskin dengan baik. Peramalan untuk tahun 2025 menunjukkan bahwa persentase penduduk miskin diperkirakan akan menurun menjadi 12,82%, pada tahun 2026 menjadi 11,91%, dan pada tahun 2027 menjadi 10,74% dengan nilai MAPE adalah 4,795%, nilai MAE adalah 0,695, dan nilai RMSE adalah 1,089% yang berarti memiliki tingkat keakuratan peramalan yang sangat baik karena nilai MAPE < 10% dan nilai RMSE tergolong kecil. Hasil penelitian ini dapat digunakan sebagai acuan untuk perencanaan kebijakan pemerintah dalam pengentasan kemiskinan di kabupaten Pamekasan.
PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA KEKERASAN DALAM RUMAH TANGGA (KDRT) TERHADAP PEREMPUAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN SOLUSI NUMERIK RUNGE-KUTTA ORDE EMPAT AULIYAK, MAMLUATUL; HASANAH, AMALIYATUL
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol. 14 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2025.v14.i04.p495

Abstract

The high number of domestic violence cases in Indonesia indicates the need for a scientific approach to understand the dynamics of the spread and more systematic control efforts. In this study, model is developed into six compartments, namely ShIRSvHC. In the model, the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point are sought, as well as numerical simulations using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method and the simulation results are compared with actual data for 2020-2024. Evaluation of model accuracy is done by calculating the relative error. The simulation results show that the sub population has decreased every time with a population of about 268,030 women. The I population experienced an increase at the beginning of the period and experienced a significant decrease in the following year, the R population experienced an increase at the beginning to the middle of the period and for the and H, C populations experienced an increase every time.
Sugar Price Prediction in East Java Using the Geometric Brownian Motion Model Amaliyatul Hasanah
Justek : Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol 9, No 1 (2026): March
Publisher : Unversitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/justek.v9i1.37063

Abstract

Sugar is a national strategic commodity that plays a vital role in Indonesia's economic stability and food security. East Java, as a major sugar producer, faces fluctuating price dynamics due to various factors, including sugarcane production, supply distribution, refined sugar imports, weather conditions, and the needs of the food and beverage industry. To understand the random price movement patterns, the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model is used because it is able to represent price dynamics through log-normal drift and volatility components. This study aims to predict sugar prices in East Java using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to provide insight into price uncertainty and volatility. The study population consists of daily sugar price data in East Java in August-November 2025, with August-October 2025 data as training data and November 2025 data as testing data. Sugar price prediction uses a stochastic modeling approach, implementing GBM through multi-path simulations to capture the shift and volatility parameters of sugar price movements. Sugar price prediction using the GBM model is carried out with 50, 500, and 1000 iterations (paths). The results obtained from the GBM model effectively capture the inherent volatility of sugar prices, producing a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.0846% for 50 trajectories, 0.0659% for 500 trajectories, and 0.0522% for 1,000 trajectories. These results indicate that the GBM can model sugar price fluctuations in East Java and provide accurate probabilistic estimates.
Edukasi Dan Pelatihan Pemanfaatan Teknologi Informasi Untuk Pengembangan Pembelajaran Berwawasan Lingkungan Bagi Guru di SMK Mambaul Ulum Fitriyah; Khotijah, Siti; Hasanah, Amaliyatul; Hasanah, Siti Hafidhatul; Waidani, Linda
Jurdimas (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Royal Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : STMIK Royal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/jurdimas.v9i2.4580

Abstract

Abstract: This Community Service Program was carries out at SMK Mambaul Ulum to motivated by the limited digital competence of teachers, who have primarily used information technology for administrative tasks, thereby hindering the integration of environmental values into learning. The objective of this community service (PKM) activity is to enhance teachers' digital competence through education and training on the utilization of belajar.id accounts, Canva for Education, Interactive PowerPoint, and Google Classroom, focusing on developing environment-oriented media (green education). The implementation method consists of four stages: preparation, execution (workshops and hands-on training), intensive mentoring, and evaluation. The results indicate a significant increase in teachers' digital competence, with average understanding scores rising from 45% to 85%. The most dramatic improvement was observed in the optimization of belajar.id accounts, reaching 90%. Quantitatively, this mentoring produced 25 digital learning media products, including environmental education posters and interactive presentations. The conclusion of this activity is that strengthening teachers' digital capacity can transform the learning paradigm into one that is more innovative, effective, and environment-based, ultimately strengthening students' environmental literacy in the digital era. Keywords: interactive learning; information technology utilization; environmental education; belajar.id account; green education. Abstrak: Kegiatan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat ini dilaksanakan di SMK Mambaul Ulum untuk mengatasi permasalahan keterbatasan kompetensi digital guru yang selama ini hanya memanfaatkan teknologi informasi untuk tugas administratif, sehingga menghambat integrasi nilai-nilai lingkungan dalam pembelajaran. Tujuan dari kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat (PKM) ini adalah untuk meningkatkan kompetensi digital guru melalui edukasi dan pelatihan pemanfaatan akun belajar.id, Canva for Education, PowerPoint Interaktif, dan Google Classroom dengan fokus pada pengembangan media berwawasan lingkungan (green education). Metode pelaksanaan meliputi empat tahap: persiapan, pelaksanaan (workshop dan hands-on training), pendampingan intensif, serta evaluasi. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan adanya peningkatan kompetensi digital guru yang signifikan, di mana rata-rata skor pemahaman meningkat dari 45% menjadi 85%. Peningkatan paling drastis terlihat pada optimalisasi akun belajar.id yang mencapai 90%. Secara kuantitatif, pendampingan ini menghasilkan 25 produk media pembelajaran digital, termasuk poster edukasi lingkungan dan presentasi interaktif. Simpulan dari kegiatan ini adalah bahwa penguatan kapasitas digital guru mampu mengubah paradigma pembelajaran menjadi lebih inovatif, efektif, dan berbasis nilai lingkungan, yang pada gilirannya memperkuat literasi lingkungan peserta didik di era digital. Kata kunci: pembelajaran interaktif; pemanfaatan teknologi informasi; pendidikan lingkungan; akun belajar.id; green education.
Co-Authors AULIYAK, MAMLUATUL Fitriyah Fitriyah Hasanah, Siti Hafidhatul Istianah Alifia Lailatus Shobibatir Rohmah Nurul Jannah Prasanti Mia Purnama Siti Khotijah Waidani, Linda