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All Journal Operations Research: International Conference Series International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Physics

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Prediction of Motor Vehicle Insurance Claims Using ARIMA-GARCH Models Susanti, Dwi; Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila; sukono, sukono; Saputra, Jumadil
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i3.331

Abstract

Motorized vehicles are one of the means of transportation used by Indonesian people. As of 2021, the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) recorded the growth of motorized vehicles in Indonesia reaching 141,992,573 vehicles. Lack of control over the number of motorized vehicles results in losses for various parties, such as accidents, damage and other unwanted losses. The size of insurance claims has the potential to fluctuate, because it is influenced by several factors, such as policy changes, market conditions and economic conditions. This research aims to predict the size of motor vehicle insurance claims using the ARIMA-GARCH model which is used to predict the size of vehicle insurance claims by dealing with non-stationarity and heteroscedasticity in time series data. Based on research, the best model obtained is the ARIMA (2,1,3) - GARCH (1,0) model which produces seven significant parameters. Meanwhile, based on the MAPE value, it shows that the ARIMA (2,1,3)-GARCH (1,0) model is quite accurate. The results of this research can be taken into consideration in predicting the size of insurance claims in the future.
Prediction of Motor Vehicle Insurance Claims Using ARMA-GARCH and ARIMA-GARCH Models Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila; Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sukono
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v5i2.672

Abstract

Motorized vehicles are one of the means of transportation used by Indonesian people. As of 2021, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded the growth of motorized vehicles in Indonesia reaching 141,992,573 vehicles. Lack of control over the number of motorized vehicles results in losses for various parties, such as accidents, damage and other unwanted losses. The size of insurance claims has the potential to fluctuate, because it is influenced by several factors, such as policy changes, market conditions and economic conditions. This research aims to predict the size of motor vehicle insurance claims using the ARMA-GARCH model which is used to predict the size of vehicle insurance claims by dealing with non-stationarity and heteroscedasticity in time series data. Based on research, the best model obtained is the ARMA(3,3)-GARCH(1,0) model which produces nine significant parameters. Meanwhile, based on the MAPE value, it shows that the ARMA(3,3)-GARCH(1,0) model is quite accurate. The results of this research can be taken into consideration in predicting the size of insurance claims in the future.
Co-Authors Dwi Susanti Saputra, Jumadil Sukono .