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All Journal Jurnal Matematika UNAND Trigonometri: Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Usep Rahmat
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Mathematics Physics

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MODEL LEE METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES UNTUK PERAMALAN PENJUALAN OBAT ANTIBIOTIK Shelina Listyaning Pangestu; Usep Rahmat
Trigonometri: Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Trigonometri: Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Cahaya Ilmu Bangsa Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.3483/trigonometri.v4i2.5454

Abstract

Rumah Sakit Khusus Ibu dan Anak (RSKIA) PKU Muhammadiyah Kotagede menghadapi tantangan dalam manajemen persediaan obat antibiotik, termasuk kekurangan stok yang mengganggu pelayanan kesehatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengimplementasikan metode FUZZY TIME SERIES (FTS) Model Lee untuk peramalan penjualan obat, guna mendukung pengelolaan persediaan yang efisien. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif, data historis penggunaan obat dari Juli 2021 hingga Juni 2024 dianalisis untuk mengidentifikasi pola dan tren. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan Model Lee dalam FTS meningkatkan akurasi peramalan stok obat, mengurangi risiko kekurangan atau kelebihan stok, dan memastikan ketersediaan obat bagi pasien. Penelitian ini memberikan solusi praktis bagi RSKIA dan menyumbangkan pemahaman lebih mendalam tentang penerapan metode peramalan dalam layanan kesehatan, serta dapat menjadi referensi bagi rumah sakit lain dalam pengelolaan persediaan obat.
An Exploration of the Optimal Solution for the Tuberculosis Transmission Model considers the Post-recovery Treatment using Optimal Control Theory Tresna, Sanubari Tansah; Choirul Basir; Usep Rahmat; Enggar Prasetyawan
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.2.224-236.2026

Abstract

Tuberculosis, also known as TB, is among the most communicable diseases. It is strenuous to detect TB infection early, so the number of cases increases over time. Consequently, the cost of treating the TB-infectious sufferer is getting higher. However, since the recovered people from TB can become infected again, the post-treatment intervention needs to be conducted. Many mathematical models have been developed to study TB transmission among people. However, the study of cost-effectiveness analysis is not well-studied. Therefore, we are proposing a reformulated model of TB transmission into an optimal control model by considering the post-treatment intervention to reduce the cases of re-infected TB. The numerical simulations are performed to figure out the projection of its population dynamics under TB transmission. Next, we calculate the Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) to explore the most cost-effective strategy.
Co-Authors Choirul Basir Enggar Prasetyawan Shelina Listyaning Pangestu Tresna, Sanubari Tansah