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Wardani, Aulia Pramudya
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Penerapan Persamaan Simultan pada Analisis Hubungan Ketersediaan dan Konsumsi Beras Untuk Melihat Kondisi Ketahanan Pangan Ramadhan, Nashif Satria; Himalaya, Karina; Wardani, Aulia Pramudya; Maheswara, Aronad Brilliantino Evan; Khairunnisa, Evita; Budiasih, Budiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1692

Abstract

Rapid increase in population is a big challenge, especially for food security. As a staple food, rice has a vital role in the daily life of Indonesian people. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence availability and consumption of rice in 34 Indonesian provinces in 2021 using simultaneous equation estimated by Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). The results is rice availability and rice consumption had a positive and significant effect on each other. Harvested area also has a positive and significant effect on the rice availability, while price of rice has no significant effect. Furthermore, population has a positive and significant effect on rice consumption, while GRDP has no significant effect. Simulations were also carried out on the impact of decreased harvested area, population growth, and increase in GRDP on the availability and consumption of rice. If these conditions occur, rice availability cannot meet national rice consumption needs.
Apakah Neraca Pembayaran Membatasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi? Kusuma, Arya Candra; Wardani, Aulia Pramudya; Amirudin, Amirudin; Yuliana, Rita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2248

Abstract

The balance of payments is one of the economic indicators related to various macroeconomic indicators. However, recent years have seen a deficit in the trade balance, a key component of the balance of payments. As per the thirlwall hypothesis, this may slow economic progress. Thus, Indonesia's balance of payments must be managed. This research tests the thirlwall theory and analyzes Indonesia's balance of payments drivers. Annual time series data from 1998-2022 was utilized. The findings confirm the thirlwall theory in Indonesia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that GDP per capita and real interest rates negatively affect the balance of payments in the short and long run. The J-curve effect illustrates that the rupiah exchange rate negatively impacts the balance of payments in the near term but not in the long run. These findings may inform Indonesian balance of payments policy.
Co-Authors Amirudin Amirudin Budiasih Budiasih Himalaya, Karina Khairunnisa, Evita Kusuma, Arya Candra Maheswara, Aronad Brilliantino Evan Ramadhan, Nashif Satria Rita Yuliana