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Apakah Neraca Pembayaran Membatasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi? Kusuma, Arya Candra; Wardani, Aulia Pramudya; Amirudin, Amirudin; Yuliana, Rita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2248

Abstract

The balance of payments is one of the economic indicators related to various macroeconomic indicators. However, recent years have seen a deficit in the trade balance, a key component of the balance of payments. As per the thirlwall hypothesis, this may slow economic progress. Thus, Indonesia's balance of payments must be managed. This research tests the thirlwall theory and analyzes Indonesia's balance of payments drivers. Annual time series data from 1998-2022 was utilized. The findings confirm the thirlwall theory in Indonesia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that GDP per capita and real interest rates negatively affect the balance of payments in the short and long run. The J-curve effect illustrates that the rupiah exchange rate negatively impacts the balance of payments in the near term but not in the long run. These findings may inform Indonesian balance of payments policy.
LOCALIZED DATA FOR EDUCATIONAL EQUITY: SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN IN BALI AND NUSA TENGGARA Khairunnisa, Sherina Rafidah; Ubaidillah, Azka; Hidayat, Ahmad Sovi; Septiyana, Alya Nur; Putri, Shalihati Melani; Prananggalih, Ahmad Tegar; Kusuma, Arya Candra; Syahidah, Shafiyah Asy
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp1179-1192

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the percentage of out-of-school children aged 7–17 years in Bali and Nusa Tenggara using the Small Area Estimation (SAE) method with a Hierarchical Bayes. One of the main challenges in education policy planning is the limited data available. National surveys, such as the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), typically provide estimates only at the national and provincial levels, while more detailed data at the district level is often lacking. This limitation restricts the understanding of educational disparities at the local level and complicates the design of targeted policies. To address this issue, SAE Hierarchical Bayes provides a solution by producing more accurate district-level estimates, utilizing additional data without the need for new sampling. This method has proven to be cost-effective and efficient, particularly in regions with complex geography, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara. The findings reveal that districts in East Nusa Tenggara generally exhibit a higher percentage of out-of-school children compared to the national average, indicating significant regional disparities that require attention. These findings highlight the urgency of improving educational infrastructure, particularly in underdeveloped areas of East Nusa Tenggara, to promote equitable access to education and reduce the number of children out of school
Keterkaitan Dan Kontribusi Sektor Pertanian Di Indonesia: Analisis Input-Output Kusuma, Arya Candra; Fadilah, Zahra Rizky; Kamal, Raihan Bariq; Herida, Isra Syukria; Syifaulhaq, Annisa; Budiasih, Budiasih
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jepa.2024.008.02.20

Abstract

Peranan penting sektor pertanian terhadap perekonomian di Indonesia tidak hanya ditinjau melalui kontribusinya terhadap (Produk Domestik Bruto) PDB, tetapi juga melalui keterkaitannya terhadap sektor perekonomian lainnya. Analisis data terkini sektor pertanian penting untuk mewujudkan tujuan nasional dan ketahanan pangan. Namun, analisis keterkaitan sektor pertanian terhadap sektor ekonomi lainnya belum melakukan pembaruan data dan perbandingan antarwaktu, sehingga tidak memberikan gambaran kondisi terkini dan perkembangan sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis keterkaitan sektor pertanian dengan sektor ekonomi lainnya serta membandingkan keterkaitan tersebut pada tahun 2016 dan tahun 2022 dengan menggunakan data tabel input-output (IO) tahun 2016 serta PDB lapangan usaha ADHB tahun 2022. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis tabel IO dan metode RAS untuk melakukan pembaruan periode waktu tabel IO. Hasil analisis tabel IO menunjukkan bahwa sektor pertanian memiliki keterkaitan ke depan lebih tinggi dibandingkan keterkaitan ke belakang sehingga menjadi penyokong sektor perekonomian lainnya dalam input bagi sektor perekonomian lain. Selain itu, hasil perbandingan keterkaitan antartahun menunjukkan peningkatan ukuran keterkaitan antara sektor pertanian terhadap sektor perekonomian lainnya. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan mampu berkontribusi untuk mengembangkan sektor pertanian untuk mewujudkan ketahanan pangan di Indonesia.
Clustering Regencies/Cities Vulnerable to Air Pollution in the Java Island: Fuzzy Geographically Weighted Clustering Kusuma, Arya Candra; Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu; Arista; Bahar, Vicka Kharisma; Siregar, Tifani Husna
Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/jurnalasks.v17i2.618

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: Air pollution has become a critical global concern with substantial effects on human health and the environment. Background Problems: Java Island in Indonesia, recognized for its high population density and industrial activities, necessitates focused effort in resolving this issue. Novelty: While air pollution research has been enormous, there has been no effort to cluster regencies or cities on Java Island utilizing spatially-based data. This research seeks to cluster regencies and cities on Java Island according to air pollution levels and to compare geodemographic and non-geodemographic clustering methodologies. Research Methods: This study employs secondary data regarding air pollution, obtained from the Openweather API. This study employs a geodemographic clustering technique, namely fuzzy geographically weighted clustering (FGWC), optimized by the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. Finding/Results: The study findings indicate that the geodemographic clustering method ABCFGWC surpasses Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) according to the TSS (Tang-Sun-Sun) index. The data reveal that the Greater Jakarta or Jabodetabek area and its adjacent territories are more susceptible to air pollution. The findings of this study are expected to enhance the spatial planning and mapping of air pollution management strategies on Java Island.
Pemetaan Cluster Spasial Produksi Perkebunan di Indonesia Kusuma, Arya Candra; Mawarsari, Ucik
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2559

Abstract

Plantation agriculture in Indonesia plays a crucial role in ensuring national food security and driving regional economic development. This study aims to analyze the spatial patterns of plantation production across 38 provinces in Indonesia using the SKATER (Spatial 'K'luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal) algorithm. It focuses on ten major plantation commodities: oil palm, rubber, cocoa, coffee, tea, coconut, sago, clove, sugarcane, and tobacco, based on 2023 production data. Descriptive analysis reveals substantial variation in production levels across regions and commodities. Spatial clustering, conducted using GeoDa, groups provinces into six distinct clusters with unique production profiles. These findings highlight local commodity specialization and production potential, which can inform more targeted policy interventions. The study contributes to spatially informed development planning and supports Indonesia’s national agenda on food security and regional development in line with the Asta Cita vision and the Golden Indonesia 2045 mission.