Muhammad, Mansur
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Understanding the Dynamic Linkages: Inflation, Real Balances, and Their Impact on Economic Growth in ECOWAS Muhammad, Mansur; Baita, Abubakar Jamilu; Ansari, Saba
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 22 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Publisher : Department of Development Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29259/jep.v22i1.23106

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between growth, inflation, and real money balances in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). We apply a new approach by extending comprehensive econometric methods so that monetary dynamics can be better understood in the West African sub-region. The study obtained data from the World Bank from 2006 to 2021 and covered 15 countries. For robustness checks, we estimate dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares. These findings reveal the existence of a significant cointegration relationship between growth, real balance, and inflation. Furthermore, this study found that real balance has a positive long-run dynamic impact on growth. Likewise, there is a short-run positive impact of money and inflation on growth. We contribute to the literature on the money-growth nexus by focusing on West Africa, which faces macroeconomic vulnerabilities due to structural imbalances. These findings have policy implications for central banks and the Fiscal Agency. Central Banks must collaborate to reduce money in the informal sector, while Fiscal Authorities must control inflation collectively.
Symmetric and Asymmetric Response of the Renewable Energy Market to Indonesian Economic Trends Junejo, Safiullah; Muhammad, Mansur; Hasundungan, Herbert Wibert Victor
Muslim Business and Economics Review Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56529/mber.v3i1.271

Abstract

This study digs into the complex interplay between renewable energy market development and Indonesian economic trends. Our rigorous study aims to investigate the impact of crucial economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates, inflation, real interest rates, net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), and urbanisation, on the renewable energy landscape in Indonesia between 1973 and 2022. This study provides a novel insight by investigating both symmetric and asymmetric impacts in the context of Indonesia. While previous studies have limited scope with linear relationships, this study fills a gap by capturing the dynamic interplay between renewables and economic indicators. By employing a robust econometric model, we reveal interesting patterns highlighting the multidimensional nature of the renewable energy market's responses to economic trends and find that there is a long-term interplay among the variables under linear and non-linear models. We found empirical evidence indicating that the nexus is asymmetric. However, in the long term, GDP exhibits an asymmetric positive impact on renewable energy consumption in the linear model. This shows that economic growth positively correlates with Indonesia's adoption of sustainable renewable energy sources. Similarly, urbanisation shows a positive response, with expanding cities boosting demand for cleaner and greener energy. Surprisingly, exchange rates show an asymmetric response, demonstrating that depreciation of local currency has a disproportionate negative impact on renewable energy investment during economic downturns. Inflation also exhibits a negative asymmetric response due to eroding purchasing power that reduces investment in renewables. Meanwhile, net inflow of FDI emerges as a critical driver in favourable economic conditions, dramatically amplifying renewable energy capacities. Therefore, during economic recessions, FDI’s impact diminishes and emphasises the significant importance of tailored interventions. Based on the findings of this study, which demonstrate the profound interplay of how the Indonesian economy shapes and is affected by the renewable energy market, we encourage the adoption of policies that promote sustainable energy development while increasing economic resilience. We recommend that policymakers support renewable energy diversification to lessen the vulnerability of exchange rate fluctuations. Attracting FDI is also crucial, as policies can help strengthen the investment climate and bolster the renewable energy sector. Inflation-indexed incentives can help maintain confidence and foster economic growth.
Investigating the CO2 Emissions Convergence and its Nexus with Growth, Renewable Energy, and Energy Intensity in OIC Countries Muhammad, Mansur; Audu, Bello; Ibrahim Ahmed, Sadiq
Muslim Business and Economics Review Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56529/mber.v4i1.384

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions pose a significant climate threat, impacting all aspects of human activity and necessitating global collaboration to protect both human and nonhuman species. Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy and enhancing energy efficiency are widely regarded as the most effective strategies for reducing emissions and mitigating global warming. Against this backdrop, we examine CO₂ emissions convergence among 50 Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) member states, considering the role of economic growth, renewable energy use, and energy intensity. Our analysis employs stochastic, club, and beta convergence methods, alongside system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. Four key findings emerge from this analysis. First, accounting for country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, we confirm stochastic convergence in CO₂ emissions among OIC members. Second, there is evidence of club convergence, where emissions cluster into distinct groups. Third, while renewable energy consumption negatively affects emissions pathway, energy intensity positively and directly affects CO₂ emissions’ growth. However, fourth, economic growth increases carbon emissions. These findings have significant policy implications. If emissions do not converge, allocating emission rights through carbon trading could lead to substantial international wealth transfers, influencing global carbon policy. Additionally, countries with similar convergence patterns could adopt common climate policies. At the same time, all nations should prioritize increasing the share of renewable energy in their energy mix to achieve sustainable emission reductions.