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All Journal Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan International Conference on Sciences Development and Technology
Widyasari, Rina
Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics

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Analysis of Contraceptive Use Rates on Fertility Rates Using the Chaid Method (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection) Muliawan, Hari; Lubis, Riri Syafitri; Widyasari, Rina
International Conference on Sciences Development and Technology The 1st ICoSDTech 2021
Publisher : International Conference on Sciences Development and Technology

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (407.547 KB)

Abstract

Fertility is the result of real reproduction (live-born babies) from a woman or a group of women or the number of children that will be born by a woman during her reproductive period. Children born to a woman have 2 categories in the BKKBN, namely the number of children > 2 and the number of children 2. The fertility/birth rate by the number of children > 2 reaches 60.9%, so it is not following the BKKBN target because the target birth rate > 30% is included in the category tall. One of the efforts to control the fertility rate is by using contraception. A contraceptive device is a tool or method to prevent pregnancy. The existence of contraceptives but the fertility rate is still high So it is necessary to do targeting (targeting) with the CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection) method. This method is used for targeting and knowing which contraceptives are the most significant, effective, and have the strongest influence on fertility levels to launch BKKBN targeting efforts in seeking population control. The result of the largest Chi-square test is female sterilization, which is 28.624. From the data, it can be concluded that the fertility rate/number of children 2 or >2 is mostly affected by the use of female sterilization contraceptives, and female sterilization is the most effective contraceptive method. This tool can help BKKBN in achieving the target.
RELATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 VIRUS IN MEDAN CITY BY SPATIAL AND NON-SPATIAL APPROACHES Audina, Yurid; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.14557

Abstract

The city of Medan is the city with the highest cases of COVID-19 virus among cities in North Sumatra. This study was conducted to analyze the relative risk level for the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Estimation of relative risk is a statistic in disease mapping that is used to determine the distribution of disease. Relative risk estimation can be estimated using a direct estimator model or Standardized Morbility ratio and a small area estimation model using Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) with the Poisson-Gamma model. The Poisson-Gamma model is one of the models in estimating small areas in the form of count data which is suitable for use in disease mapping cases. This study aims to find the relative risk value as the basis for mapping the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the city of Medan using the Standardized Morbility Ratio and Bayesian Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research. Condition Autoregressive models. And look for the value of the Central Error Squared (KTG) / Mean Squared Error (MSE) as a comparison which model is more efficient in estimating this research.
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GENERALIZED SPACE TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE (GSTAR) MODEL IN THE CASE OF THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS IN THE DISTRICT CITY OF NORTH SUMATRA Nasution, Alfina Febriani; Lubis, Riri Syafitri; Widyasari, Rina
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.14785

Abstract

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new virus that can be transmitted and the worst impact is death. Covid-19 first appeared in Wuhan, China and eventually spread throughout the world, one of which was North Sumatra Province. The spread of Covid-19 cases was quite rapid, until finally the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 case a pandemic. Based on the conditions that occurred, this final project discusses the prediction of positive cases of Covid-19 in five locations in North Sumatra using the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. Considering that Covid-19 spreads very easily, it does not only depend on time but also the proximity between locations, so the GSTAR model is quite good to use in predicting it, assuming the parameters between locations are heterogeneous. The estimation used is OLS with inverse distance weight. This study aims to determine the best GSTAR model and forecast positive cases of Covid-19 at five locations in North Sumatra. The results show that the best GSTAR model in this study is -OLS with an inverse weight of distance with forecasting results for the next 10 days in May 2022.
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EVENT STUNTING WITH CHI-SQUARE METHOD APPROACH AUTOMATIC INTERACTION DETECTION IN NORTH SUMATRA Arianti, Mei Yunina; Husein, Ismail; Widyasari, Rina
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.14783

Abstract

In statistics, one way to group (classify) a data mathematically is called classification. There are several types of classification methods, one of which is Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection, which is abbreviated as CHAID. CHAID method will be applied to North Sumatra stunting data. Stunting is a condition in which a person's height is shorter than that of other people of the same age. The dependent variable in the study was stunting, which was measured in infants aged 24-59 months, while the independent variable was a factor that affected stunting. The factors that influence the incidence of stunting in infants aged 24-59 months in North Sumatra based on the results of the analysis (CHAID) are family income, sanitation and water sources. From the results of the CHAID analysis, 5 different groups were obtained, namely: Infants aged 24-59 months who were stunted were infants with an economic income of IDR 1,000,000 - IDR 2,000,000 (98.4%) and inadequate sanitation (100%), Babies aged 24-59 months who are stunted are babies with an economic income of IDR 1,000,000 - IDR 2,000,000 (98.4%) and proper sanitation (93.2%), babies aged 24-59 months who are not stunted are infants with an economic income of Rp. 3,000,000 - Rp. 5,000,000 (95.5%). Infants aged 24-59 months who are not stunted are infants with an economic income of > Rp. 5,000,000 (99.5%) and adequate water sources (100%) and infants aged 24-59 months who are not stunted with an economic income of > IDR 5,000,000 (99.5%) and inadequate water sources (97.1%).
APPLICATION OF HYBRID LSTAR-GARCH MODEL WITH EXPECTED TAILL LOSS IN PREDICTING THE PRICE MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN CRYPTOCURRENCY AGAINST RUPIAH CURRENCY Fadillah, Yanna Rezki; Widyasari, Rina
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 7, No 1 (2023): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v7i1.17149

Abstract

Time series data from bitcoin has nonlinear data fluctuations so that a model is needed that can accommodate data with these conditions. The method that can be used for nonlinear time series data cases such as bitcoin is the LSTAR-GARCH model. LSTAR-GARCH is a combination of the LSTAR model and the GARCH model. Bitcoin investment also contains an element of risk. To find out the value of risk, the Expected Tail Loss risk measurement tool can be used. Expected Tail Loss (ETL). The data used in this study are historical daily bitcoin price data for the period April 1, 2022 to April 1, 2023. The modeling results obtained based on the MAPE value show that the LSTAR-GARCH model is the best model with the smallest MAPE value of 30% compared to the AR, LSTAR, or AR-GARCH models. The expected Taill loss value of bitcoin is -0.06784.
Co-Authors Arianti, Mei Yunina Audina, Yurid Fadillah, Yanna Rezki Ismail Husein, Ismail Muliawan, Hari Nasution, Alfina Febriani Riri Syafitri Lubis Sari, Rina Filia