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All Journal Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika
Pramita, Agnes
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Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Kabupaten Belitung Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo Marcelina, Elen; Agustin, Tria; Luthfiyaturrohmah, Khilma; Octaviani, Julia; Pramita, Agnes; Monika, Ines; Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Nasrun, Aja
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi EULER: Volume 12 Issue 1 June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v12i1.25153

Abstract

One of Indonesia's mainstay sectors in receiving foreign exchange is tourism, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, tourism contributed \$34 billion to state revenue. The tourism sector needs to be developed to support the country's economic growth. One of the priority destinations in Indonesia that can be developed is Bangka Belitung. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of tourists in Belitung Regency so that it can facilitate the provision of facilities that support the tourism sector as well as promotional strategies to introduce tourist attractions in Belitung Regency to the general public. This study used data on the number of tourists in 2021, 2022, and 2023 in Belitung Regency which was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method. The accuracy of forecasting results is measured based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The number of tourists from this forecast is in accordance with the pattern of actual tourist data in Belitung Regency.The MAPE value in forecasting the number of tourists in Belitung Regency in 2022 is 21.45\%, which means that the prediction results produced are said to be good, while in 2023 it has an accuracy rate of 7.56\%, which means that the prediction results are said to be very good.
IMPLEMENTASI LOGIKA FUZZY MAMDANI PADA PREDIKSI INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA PROVINSI KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG TAHUN 2010-2023 Halim, Nikken; Sakti, Adam Indra; Lutfiyaturrohmah, Khilma; Pramita, Agnes; Prayanti, Baiq Desy Aniska
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v13n1.p64-72

Abstract

The Human Development Index is a comprehensive picture of the level of human development in a region, as the impact of development activities carried out in that region. There are three basic dimensions as a benchmark for measuring the Human Development Index that covers longevity and healthy living, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. Fuzzy logic is one of the decision support systems that can be implemented for uncertainty issues. The aim of this research is to implement the fuzzy logic of the Mamdani method on the Human Development Index (HDI) prediction and obtain accurate results from such implementation. The research variables used were life expectancy, average school age, school age expectation and per capita expenditure. This research will be done with the help of Matlab software. Based on the implementation of the fuzzy logic of the Mamdani method on the IPM prediction, the MAPE value is obtained with an average of 0.087169912% which means that it has a true value of 99.91283009%. This shows that the Fuzzy Logic of Mammdani's method is well used to predict IPM in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province.
Co-Authors Agustin, Tria Baiq Desy Aniska Prayanti Desy Yuliana Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana Halim, Nikken Lutfiyaturrohmah, Khilma Luthfiyaturrohmah, Khilma Marcelina, Elen Monika, Ines Nasrun, Aja Octaviani, Julia Sakti, Adam Indra