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All Journal Agro Ekonomi Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Environmental Science

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Pembangunan Inklusif dan Industrialisasi di Indonesia: Dampaknya terhadap Kesejahteraan Setiawan, Avi Budi; Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi; Yusuf, Mochammad; Prajanti, Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika; Bowo, Prasetyo Ari; Fafurida, Fafurida
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Indonesia has an economic transformation. However, it tends to experience deindustrialization and development inclusivity challenges. This research examines the influence of industrialization and inclusivity to improve welfare in the short and long term. The analytical method is Autoregressive Distributed Lag, using province-level panel data from 2012–2021. Based on results, industrialization has not significantly affected welfare improvement in the short term. Inclusivity has no significant impact in the short term, but it has a negative direction. However, in the long term, industrialization and inclusivity positively and significantly increase welfare. This confirms that industrialization and inclusivity require time to create welfare.
Unraveling the Interplay among Inflation, Rice Prices, and Farmers Terms of Trade in Central Java, Indonesia Setiawan, Avi Budi; Yusuf, Mochammad; Prajanti, Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika; Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi; Bowo, Prasetyo Ari; Maftukhah, Ida
Agro Ekonomi Vol 35, No 1 (2024): JUNE 2024
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ae.86078

Abstract

Farmers' Terms of Trade is an essential variable for measuring welfare and is also affected by other factors, such as inflation and rice prices. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the interplay among inflation, rice prices, and farmers' Terms of Trade in food crop farming in Central Java Province, in short and long term using a dynamic model. A quantitative method employing Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model was used with monthly data from January 2018 to March 2023. The results showed that rice prices and inflation partially had a significant and positive influence on farmers’ Terms of Trade in long term. According to short term estimation, the dependent variable was significantly and positively influenced by farmers' Terms of Trade from the previous 1-2 months. Inflation rate was also shown to have a positive influence on the variable in short term. In addition, rice prices had a positive and significant impact in the previous 3 months, but had no significant influence in recent months. Based on the results, inflation could positively influence farmers’ Terms of Trade in short and long term. However, the recent rice prices had no impact due to the requirement of time lags. The assessment findings showed that recent rice prices could significantly increase farmers’ Terms of Trade in the next 3 months and long term period. 
Economic Complexity as a Driver of Economic Growth in Indonesia: A Multidimensional Analysis of Trade, Technology, and Research Maulidar, Putri; Yulfianti, Chairunnisa; Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi
Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/eje.v3i2.346

Abstract

This study investigates how economic complexity influences Indonesia’s economic growth through three interrelated dimensions: research, technology, and trade. Using annual time-series data from 2000 to 2021, several econometric techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Robust Least Squares (RLS), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Quantile Regression (QR) are applied to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. The results reveal that the contribution of economic complexity to growth is heterogeneous and stage dependent. Research and trade-based complexities emerge as the primary long-run drivers of growth, enhancing productivity, export diversification, and structural transformation. In contrast, technology-based complexity exerts a negative effect in both the short and long run, reflecting Indonesia’s limited absorptive capacity, skill mismatches, and institutional constraints. Quantile regression results further show that research-based complexity supports growth during low-performance phases, whereas trade-based complexity becomes more influential at higher stages of development. These findings highlight the need for phase-specific development strategies that strengthen research and innovation in early stages, improve technological absorption during industrial transitions, and promote export sophistication and value-chain integration to achieve resilient, knowledge-driven, and sustainable economic growth.
Co-Authors Avi Budi Setiawan Fafurida Fafurida Ida Maftukhah Maulidar, Putri Mochammad Yusuf, Mochammad Prasetyo Ari Bowo, Prasetyo Ari Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti Yulfianti, Chairunnisa