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All Journal Agro Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Pembangunan Inklusif dan Industrialisasi di Indonesia: Dampaknya terhadap Kesejahteraan Setiawan, Avi Budi; Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi; Yusuf, Mochammad; Prajanti, Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika; Bowo, Prasetyo Ari; Fafurida, Fafurida
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 24, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Indonesia has an economic transformation. However, it tends to experience deindustrialization and development inclusivity challenges. This research examines the influence of industrialization and inclusivity to improve welfare in the short and long term. The analytical method is Autoregressive Distributed Lag, using province-level panel data from 2012–2021. Based on results, industrialization has not significantly affected welfare improvement in the short term. Inclusivity has no significant impact in the short term, but it has a negative direction. However, in the long term, industrialization and inclusivity positively and significantly increase welfare. This confirms that industrialization and inclusivity require time to create welfare.
Unraveling the Interplay among Inflation, Rice Prices, and Farmers Terms of Trade in Central Java, Indonesia Setiawan, Avi Budi; Yusuf, Mochammad; Prajanti, Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika; Prasetyo, Farhan Hadi; Bowo, Prasetyo Ari; Maftukhah, Ida
Agro Ekonomi Vol 35, No 1 (2024): JUNE 2024
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ae.86078

Abstract

Farmers' Terms of Trade is an essential variable for measuring welfare and is also affected by other factors, such as inflation and rice prices. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the interplay among inflation, rice prices, and farmers' Terms of Trade in food crop farming in Central Java Province, in short and long term using a dynamic model. A quantitative method employing Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model was used with monthly data from January 2018 to March 2023. The results showed that rice prices and inflation partially had a significant and positive influence on farmers’ Terms of Trade in long term. According to short term estimation, the dependent variable was significantly and positively influenced by farmers' Terms of Trade from the previous 1-2 months. Inflation rate was also shown to have a positive influence on the variable in short term. In addition, rice prices had a positive and significant impact in the previous 3 months, but had no significant influence in recent months. Based on the results, inflation could positively influence farmers’ Terms of Trade in short and long term. However, the recent rice prices had no impact due to the requirement of time lags. The assessment findings showed that recent rice prices could significantly increase farmers’ Terms of Trade in the next 3 months and long term period. 
Co-Authors Avi Budi Setiawan Fafurida Fafurida Ida Maftukhah Mochammad Yusuf, Mochammad Prasetyo Ari Bowo, Prasetyo Ari Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti